New ‘Theatrical’ Clash between Hezbollah, Israel Reflects Anxiety to Maintain Rules of Engagement

Smoke rises as seen from Marjeyoun, near the border with Israel, Lebanon August 4, 2021. (Reuters)
Smoke rises as seen from Marjeyoun, near the border with Israel, Lebanon August 4, 2021. (Reuters)
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New ‘Theatrical’ Clash between Hezbollah, Israel Reflects Anxiety to Maintain Rules of Engagement

Smoke rises as seen from Marjeyoun, near the border with Israel, Lebanon August 4, 2021. (Reuters)
Smoke rises as seen from Marjeyoun, near the border with Israel, Lebanon August 4, 2021. (Reuters)

Observers in Lebanon were drawn to the recent exchange of fire between the Israeli army and Hezbollah party.

Israel had retaliated on Friday to rockets fired by Hezbollah by striking open areas in the disputed Shebaa Farms. Hezbollah initially claimed that it had carried out its attack in response to Israeli raids at dawn on Thursday. Israel had carried out those raids in retaliation to rocket attacks, fired by unknown sides, from southern Lebanon towards its territories.

Observers were eager to find out if Israeli jets had taken part in the strikes in order to determine who had won this round in determining the rules of engagement between Israel and Hezbollah.

The party believes that it is essential to maintain these rules even at the risk of the eruption of a war that it wants to avoid with Israel. The party even released an official statement to deny that Israeli jets had taken part in the strikes.

This week’s “virtual confrontation” is the latest between the two sides since Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. Since then, the “open war” between the foes has transformed into a sort of tango, whose steps are determined by unwritten and undeclared rules that have been named “rules of engagement”.

Those rules were even in place during the peak of the 2006 war. At the time, Israel only struck certain areas in Beirut and its suburbs. It very rarely went beyond those lines. It was said at the time that Israel would strike one side of the road and not the other even though both were Hezbollah territory.

Head of Middle East Center for Studies and Research, Hisham Jaber said Hezbollah and Israel were in agreement over respecting the rules of engagement that they agreed upon years ago.

It appears that the red line is their refusal to engage in an all-out war, he noted. If one side were to stray too far beyond the rules, then the other would “remind” them of what an escalation may lead to. This is what happened in the past two days.

New Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wanted to convey a message to his people that he is different than his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu. He ordered an air strike on an open area in Lebanon in response to rocket attacks by Palestinian factions. Hezbollah responded the same way – by also firing at open areas.

Most significant was their choice to fire at the disputed Shebaa Farms area, which Beirut views as Lebanese territory, while Israel deems it Syrian. By attacking disputed land, both sides have avoided forcing each other into engaging in a wider conflict.

Israel’s strikes ultimately had no strategic value, but Hezbollah was forced to respond to avoid surrendering to Israel’s air force. Jaber said the party was forced to retaliate in order to save face in front of its supporters and maintain the morale of its fighters.

Ever since the 2000 withdrawal, Hezbollah has been trying to draw its rules of engagement. It views the Shebaa Farms as occupied Israeli territory, so it has focused its military operations there. Even during the 2006 war, the party met each Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs with a strike on Haifa and when Israel struck Beirut, the party targeted Tel Aviv.

When Israel killed six Hezbollah fighters, including prominent member Imad Mughnieh and an Iranian military commander, in the occupied Golan Heights in January 2015, the party retaliated ten days later by attacking an Israeli military patrol in Shebaa.

When Israel killed Hezbollah operative Samir al-Kuntar in Syria’s Jaramana in December 2015, the party responded by attacking an Israeli vehicle in Shebaa in January 2016.

After a failed Israeli drone attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs in August 2019, the party responded a month later with an attack on an Israeli military vehicle in the settlement of Avivim. Israel retaliated by attacking border regions. Moreover, the Israeli army at the time farcically placed dummies in a remotely-controlled vehicle so that the party could attack it and allow both sides to end the clash to their satisfaction.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.