Sadr’s Election Boycott Raises Fears of Inter-Shiite Fighting in Iraq

Iraqi police keep watch during a demonstration at Tahrir Square in Baghdad on December 21, 2020. (AFP)
Iraqi police keep watch during a demonstration at Tahrir Square in Baghdad on December 21, 2020. (AFP)
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Sadr’s Election Boycott Raises Fears of Inter-Shiite Fighting in Iraq

Iraqi police keep watch during a demonstration at Tahrir Square in Baghdad on December 21, 2020. (AFP)
Iraqi police keep watch during a demonstration at Tahrir Square in Baghdad on December 21, 2020. (AFP)

The countdown for the October 10 parliamentary elections began in Iraq amid the boycott of influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Several blocs and coalitions have started their electoral campaigns, including the Rule of Law coalition of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Shiite parties have kicked off their campaigns, while Sunni and Kurdish coalitions have yet to start theirs despite the various meetings held between their leaders.

An independent Iraqi politician and former MP said it has become evident that Sadr will not retract his withdrawal.

“This has led to serious concerns among Shiites of impending inter-Shiite fighting even if a new government is formed after the elections,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He explained that with Sadr out of the equation, new balances of power within parliament may lead to tensions among the various parties that could escalate into fighting,

He noted that strenuous efforts were exerted to convince Sadr to change his position, but he has so far resisted them, prompting speculation over the motives behind the cleric’s stance.

Some sides believe that he has a plan that has yet to materialize that would see him not only have a say in the nomination of a new prime minister or claim ministerial portfolios for himself, but go beyond that, especially if the balance of power sways in favor of his great rival, the Fatah alliance or even Maliki, added the official.

It appears that Maliki is eyeing the position of prime minister in spite of his previous assertion that he no longer aspires for that seat.

“Sadr’s rivals are aware of his influence and therefore, he would be difficult to ignore in any new political equation,” remarked the former MP.

Moreover, some sides have been proven wrong in believing that the cleric’s supporters will grow divided with his withdrawal from the elections, he added.

Sadr, he explained, has come up with a plan to prevent these divisions.

Meanwhile, Maliki stressed that the elections will be held as scheduled “regardless of the threats”, saying that the democratic process should be respected.



Israeli Army Reaches Outskirts of Litani River in Southern Lebanon

An Israeli tank loaded onto a truck being transported to the border with southern Lebanon in the Upper Galilee (EPA)
An Israeli tank loaded onto a truck being transported to the border with southern Lebanon in the Upper Galilee (EPA)
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Israeli Army Reaches Outskirts of Litani River in Southern Lebanon

An Israeli tank loaded onto a truck being transported to the border with southern Lebanon in the Upper Galilee (EPA)
An Israeli tank loaded onto a truck being transported to the border with southern Lebanon in the Upper Galilee (EPA)

Israeli forces have launched their largest ground incursion into southern Lebanon since the conflict began, reaching the outskirts of the Litani River near Deirmimas.

They entered the town’s edges in an effort to separate Nabatieh from Marjayoun and prepare for an attack on the town of Taybeh from the west and north.

This move also aimed to neutralize Taybeh hill, which overlooks the Khiam plain, where Israel plans to extend its operations and capture the city of Khiam.

Lebanese media reported that Israel set up a checkpoint at the Deirmimas junction, cutting off Marjayoun from Nabatieh.

They also blocked the western entrance to Deirmimas near a fuel station using earth mounds, with Israeli military vehicles stationed there. Reports also said Israeli forces prevented UNIFIL and the Lebanese army from passing toward Marjayoun.

Lebanese sources following the battle in the south reported that Israeli forces advanced five kilometers west from the town of Kfar Kila, moving through olive groves. This advance took advantage of the absence of Hezbollah fighters in Christian areas like Qlayaa, Bir al-Muluk, and Deirmimas.

The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that this allowed Israeli forces to reach the outskirts of the Litani River for the first time since 2006, cutting off Nabatieh from Marjayoun. Israeli artillery had previously targeted this route several times, and drones had carried out strikes there.

Israel supported its ground advance with heavy artillery fire. Lebanese security sources said Israeli artillery targeted hills overlooking Deirmimas throughout Thursday night into Friday, hitting locations like Beaufort Castle, Arnoun, Yihmour, Wadi Zawtar, and Deir Siryan.

This fire typically provides cover for infantry advances. The sources also confirmed that Israeli ground movements were backed by airstrikes and drones for added security.

They speculated the advance followed a route from Kfar Kila through Tall al-Nahas and Bir al-Muluk toward Deirmimas, which is almost empty of residents and has no Hezbollah presence.

Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli forces in the area, with three statements confirming the targeting of Israeli positions and vehicles near Deirmimas.

Media reports mentioned multiple rocket strikes on Israeli targets in Khiam and near Tall al-Nahas, as well as a guided missile attack on Israeli movements near oil groves close to the Marqos station at Deirmimas’ edge.

A photo shared by Lebanese media showed an Israeli tank behind an exposed hill east of Qlayaa, protected from the west and north. To the south, Israeli forces entered the town of Deirmimas, which overlooks the position.

Military expert Mustafa Asaad said the image, showing a bulldozer behind a tank at the Qlayaa-Marjayoun-Deirmimas junction, suggests that infantry units secured the area—either on foot or in fast vehicles—before entering Deirmimas.

The town’s mayor confirmed to local media that Israeli forces made a “small incursion” into Deirmimas, advancing through olive groves from Kfar Kila.

Hezbollah has stated it does not have military positions in Christian or Druze areas in southern Lebanon, as these communities oppose its presence. Sources close to Hezbollah say this is due to political reasons and security concerns.