Lebanese Leaders at Loggerheads as Fuel Crisis Worsens

Motorbike and car drivers wait to get fuel at a gas station, after the central bank decided to effectively end subsidies on fuel imports, in Damour, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)
Motorbike and car drivers wait to get fuel at a gas station, after the central bank decided to effectively end subsidies on fuel imports, in Damour, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)
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Lebanese Leaders at Loggerheads as Fuel Crisis Worsens

Motorbike and car drivers wait to get fuel at a gas station, after the central bank decided to effectively end subsidies on fuel imports, in Damour, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)
Motorbike and car drivers wait to get fuel at a gas station, after the central bank decided to effectively end subsidies on fuel imports, in Damour, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)

Lebanese President Michel Aoun called an emergency meeting to discuss a worsening fuel crisis on Friday but was rebuffed by the prime minister as political paralysis obstructed efforts to find a solution, even as much of the country grinds to a halt.

Dwindling fuel supply has plunged Lebanon into extended blackouts and long queues for petrol and bread, with many bakeries and hospitals almost forced to close. Angered by the government's inaction, protesters blocked roads across the country. read more

This week the central bank announced an effective end to fuel subsidies that have drained the reserves at a time when Lebanon is in a state of financial collapse.

The government opposes the move, which will prompt prices to rise sharply, and criticizes the central bank for not reversing the move, while importers say they will not extend supplies until an agreement is reached, according to Reuters.

However, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh said on Friday that the government had been aware of the decision announced on Wednesday to start extending lines of credit for fuel imports at market rather than heavily subsidised exchange rates, effectively ending the subsidy system.

The government has accused Salameh of acting alone and said prices should not change, arguing that the damage of ending the subsidies was greater than the benefits of preserving the mandatory hard currency reserve which the central bank is trying to shield.

In comments published by Radio Free Lebanon whose accuracy he confirmed to Reuters, Salameh said he informed officials that parliament needed to pass a law authorizing a dip into those reserves.

Earlier on Friday, President Michel Aoun's invitation for a special urgent cabinet meeting on the crisis was rejected by caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab as unconstitutional.

Diab has refused to hold a cabinet meeting since he and his administration resigned one year ago in the wake of the Beirut port explosion. The formation of a new cabinet has been obstructed by squabbling among sectarian politicians over shares in a new administration.

In a statement, Aoun said Salameh refused to reverse his decision, and blamed him for the worsening crisis.

"The central bank is an entity of public law, and the government is the one who sets general policies in all fields," he said.

Most recently, the central bank had been providing dollars for fuel imports at 3,900 Lebanese pounds per dollar, far less than the market rate of more than 20,000.

Lebanon's currency has lost more than 90% of its value in less than two years, and more than half of the population is now in poverty.

Local media reported the hijacking of a fuel tanker and a shooting at a petrol station, incidents which have recurred over the past week.

The government is demanding Salameh reverse his decision until a program to provide cash cards to citizens is implemented.

Lebanon's oil directorate said on Friday that oil importers and facilities must supply the quantities of fuel they had purchased before the central bank decision as they wait for the central bank to set the new rate.

Maroun Chammas, member of The Association of Petroleum Importing Companies, said that importers were insistent on a unified exchange rate for buying and selling fuel.

He urged the central bank and government come to an agreement within hours, not days to avoid catastrophe, in comments to local news channel MTV.

The directorate "called on all to assume their responsibilities in ensuring the necessary lines of credit in order to secure the fuel supply."

Salameh did not respond to a question from Reuters on fuel imports.



IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."