Israel Seeks to Coordinate 'Plan B' with US on Iran

Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)
Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)
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Israel Seeks to Coordinate 'Plan B' with US on Iran

Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)
Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told CIA Director Bill Burns in a meeting on Wednesday that the US and Israel should start working on a joint strategy for a scenario in which Iran elects not to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, according to Israeli officials.

The issue was the focus of Burns' talks in Israel with Bennett, President Isaac Herzog, Minister of Defense Benny Gantz, and Mossad director David Barnea.

At the meeting, the Israeli intelligence community, foreign ministry, and other national security agencies think the likelihood of Iran deciding to return to the deal has waned in recent weeks after the election of new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi.

During the meeting, Bennett presented Burns with his assessment of and policy toward Iran. Israeli officials said their impression was that Burns was also skeptical about whether Iran was ready to return to full compliance with the deal.

The Israeli government is concerned that the US and other Western powers won't push back hard as Iran moves ahead with its nuclear program.

The Biden administration is still seeking a path back to the 2015 deal, but the talks are on hold as the new Iranian administration takes office.

On the eve of his meeting with Burns, Gantz said that Iran is the greatest threat to the stability of the world and the region alike and called on all countries to curb Iranian aggression.

Haaretz newspaper quoted officials saying that Israel tried to ensure that the US administration is ready to enlist the international community for a campaign of pressure against Iran in the event of not signing the agreement.

The newspaper quoted Israeli officials saying that an attempt was recently made to ensure that Washington can implement its plan by reaching a more stringent agreement and forcing Tehran to sign it.

They said that such a step requires directing a clear and tangible US military threat and imposing more severe economic and diplomatic sanctions, which isolates Iran.

According to an informed source, Israeli officials briefed Burns on intelligence reports that included data indicating significant progress in the Iranian nuclear program in the recent period.

Iran has exceeded the commitments stipulated in the 2015 nuclear agreement, which allowed Tehran to enrich uranium to a level of 3.67 percent and collect up to 300 kilograms.

According to Israeli estimates, Iran is now in possession of 10 kilograms of uranium enriched at a level of 60 percent, 140 kilograms enriched at 20 percent, and 2,500 kilograms enriched at 4 percent.

Iran uses hundreds of advanced centrifuges, although the original nuclear agreement forbids this, and that uranium enrichment takes place at the Fordo facility, contrary to the agreement, at a level of 20 percent.

Israel estimates that Iran is about two months away from becoming a nuclear state and resuming the treaty with the world powers would delay it by about four years.

"There is a strategic difference between Israel's approach and that of the US administration," explained an Israeli source.

The same source added: "Even if Israel does not declare it officially, our goal is to reach an agreement that will block the way or prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities. Israel is in favor of a deal. It is opposed to a bad deal."



Iran Sells Its Oil Stored in China to Finance Operations in the Middle East

Patrol vessel KN. Pulau Marore-322, owned by Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) patrols to inspect the Iranian-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), MT Arman 114, and the Cameroon-flagged MT S Tinos (Reuters)
Patrol vessel KN. Pulau Marore-322, owned by Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) patrols to inspect the Iranian-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), MT Arman 114, and the Cameroon-flagged MT S Tinos (Reuters)
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Iran Sells Its Oil Stored in China to Finance Operations in the Middle East

Patrol vessel KN. Pulau Marore-322, owned by Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) patrols to inspect the Iranian-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), MT Arman 114, and the Cameroon-flagged MT S Tinos (Reuters)
Patrol vessel KN. Pulau Marore-322, owned by Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) patrols to inspect the Iranian-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), MT Arman 114, and the Cameroon-flagged MT S Tinos (Reuters)

Iran has shipped nearly 3 million barrels of oil from a storage site in China in a bid to raise funds that could be used to shore up Iran’s allied militia groups in the Middle East, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal last week.
The oil was taken from a stockpile of at least 25 million barrels that Iran had sent to China in late 2018.
China approved Iran's oil exports after talks with Iranian officials in late November and December 2024, sources told the newspaper.
The additional oil revenue comes at a crucial time for Iran, as it tries to support its allied militias in the region, such as Hezbollah, which have been battered in conflicts with Israel.
The fall of the Assad regime came as another blow, choking off the land route that Iran used to supply Hezbollah with cash and weapons, WSJ said.
The newspaper warned that the IRGC has taken charge of unloading and claiming this oil. There are concerns that the proceeds from its sale may be transferred to Iran’s regional proxy force, it noted.
US officials specifically raised concerns about the money flowing to the IRGC in its contacts with Beijing, one of the people told the newspaper.
A representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the ministry is not aware of this situation, but Beijing cooperates with all countries, including Iran, within the bounds of international law.
China has opposed the US “abuse of illegal and unreasonable unilateral sanctions” against Iran, the spokesperson said.
China's decision to allow Iran to ship the oil could stoke tensions with Washington, as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. In his first term, Trump moved aggressively to curtail Iranian oil sales.
Trump’s transition team has said he would return to his maximum pressure campaign once he takes office on Jan. 20. China, as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, could be critical to that effort.
Trump might have to decide what he wants to give priority to in his relationship with Beijing, given his demands on trade and other issues.
The oil that Iran stored in China in 2018 has been at two ports—in Dalian, east of Beijing, and Zhoushan, south of Shanghai, the people said. Two vessels—the Madestar and CH Billion—recently set sail for Dalian, people told WSJ.
Madestar left the Dalian port in early January loaded with 2 million barrels of oil, and the CH Billion is believed to be still docked there, set to be loaded with 700,000 barrels, they said.
The US Treasury Department sanctioned 35 entities and vessels on Dec. 3 that it said played a role in transporting illicit Iranian petroleum to foreign markets.
Then on December 19, the Treasury imposed additional sanctions on entities and vessels, including a China-based company, to stem the flow of revenue that the Iranian regime uses to support terrorism abroad, as well as to oppress its own people.
In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil. China imports accounted for 91% of Iran's total exports, the WSJ said. But much of the funds from those sales have remained abroad because of the impact of US financial sanctions on Tehran.
Even if Iran is ultimately able to sell all the oil now stored in China, it is unclear exactly how much money it would make.
Sanctions and the refusal of some ships to transport the oil will increase the cost of the sale and slow it down.