The Israeli airstrike that struck a three-storey building on Tuesday in the industrial zone of Sainiq, in the Sidon district in southern Lebanon, was part of a broader wave of attacks that on Monday targeted the western Bekaa Valley, Jezzine, and areas around Sidon.
With intensive drone flights over Baalbek and its outskirts, followed by surveillance over Tyre and Zahrani, the picture pointed to a new wave of escalation extending beyond the South that stretches from north of the Litani River to the Awali basin and parts of the Bekaa.
Timing
The escalation raises serious questions, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said, particularly as the “Mechanism” committee is set to meet on Wednesday.
The committee is tasked with halting hostilities and identifying practical steps to restore security and stability in the South, including Israel’s withdrawal to the international border, the release of Lebanese detainees, and the completion of the Lebanese Army’s deployment in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
In a statement, Aoun stressed that Israel’s continued attacks aim to derail local, regional, and international efforts to contain the escalation, despite Lebanon’s cooperation and the measures adopted by the government to extend state authority south of the Litani.
He added that these steps were implemented by the Lebanese Army “with professionalism, discipline, and precision.”
He renewed his call for effective international intervention to curb Israel’s actions and to enable the Mechanism committee to fulfill its mandate with the consensus of the parties concerned and sustained international support.
On Monday, Israel launched a series of strikes across eastern and southern Lebanon after issuing evacuation warnings to residents. Overnight, it continued air raids without warning on Zahrani and Sarafand.
At dawn on Tuesday, it struck a three-storey building in an industrial area in Ghazieh, near the coastal city of Sidon — about 40 kilometres south of Beirut — wounding one person, levelling the building, damaging nearby structures, and sparking a fire.
Later on Tuesday, an Israeli drone struck an area near a house in the village of Kfardounine, followed by another strike on a home in Khirbet Selm that killed two people, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
The Israeli army said it had targeted “multiple military infrastructures” belonging to Hezbollah and Hamas, including weapons depots and military facilities above and below ground.
The statement said Hezbollah used these sites to advance “terrorist plans” and rebuild its capabilities. It also cited strikes on Hamas weapons-production sites in southern Lebanon allegedly used to arm the Palestinian group and plan attacks against Israeli forces and Israel.
Signals on the ground
The latest strikes carry several overlapping signals: a clear return to escalation; an expansion of operations to include areas north of the Litani, the Awali basin, and parts of the Bekaa; and a shift beyond targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure alone, with attacks on sites Israel says belong to Hamas.
This has brought strikes into predominantly Sunni areas, such as Manara in the western Bekaa.
Beyond the South
Retired Brigadier Khalil Helou told Asharq Al-Awsat that the recent developments reflect a broader Israeli strategy aimed at increasing pressure on the Lebanese government and state institutions, particularly the army, to accelerate implementation of the second phase of the plan to impose state monopoly over arms, especially north of the Litani, effectively across all of Lebanon.
He said Israel’s approach in Lebanon cannot be separated from the situation in Gaza and Iran, arguing that these arenas are interconnected within a single strategic vision that also intersects with US policy.
“What we are witnessing today is the outcome of wider political and security understandings that emerged after the meeting between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, even if the details were never made public,” he said. The leaders met in late December.
Intelligence-driven operations
Helou described Israel’s recent strikes as “limited military operations with an intelligence-driven character rather than open political signaling.”
The absence of prior warnings in some cases, he added, points to targeted assassinations or precision strikes on sites believed to have particular military importance.
Dahiyeh a possible target, war unlikely
On potential escalation scenarios, Helou said strikes on Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh have become more conceivable than before within Israel’s margin of maneuver.
He nonetheless ruled out a full-scale war, arguing that Hezbollah is currently unable to mount a response even if the scope of attacks widens.
Iran
Turning to Iran, Helou said internal developments and debates within the Iranian regime play a decisive role in shaping Tehran’s regional behavior.
Any major decision by Hezbollah remains directly tied to Iranian guidance, he added.
“The Lebanese scene cannot be read in isolation from what is unfolding daily in Iran, where the broader strategic picture is being drawn,” he remarked.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Walla news site reported that there is no intention to scale back Israeli military presence along the Lebanese border and that operations will continue as required, even if this entails expanding their geographic scope to include areas north of the Litani, the Awali basin, parts of the Bekaa, and Beirut’s southern suburbs.
The escalation comes ahead of a military meeting of the Mechanism committee and before a Cabinet session Thursday devoted to reviewing the Lebanese Army’s final report on arms control south of the Litani and preparations for a second phase north of the river.
Haaretz, meanwhile, reported that Trump told Netanyahu he was granting him limited leeway for any military operation against Hezbollah.
Helou said the next phase is likely to see intensified strikes and mounting pressure aimed at enforcing the second phase of disarmament across Lebanon without sliding into a comprehensive war, describing the current trajectory as a “calculated escalation serving broader political and military objectives.”
