Syrians between the ‘Occupier’, ‘Ally’ and Taliban ‘Victory’

Sweets are handed out in Idlib to celebrate the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. (Akhbar Idlib)
Sweets are handed out in Idlib to celebrate the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. (Akhbar Idlib)
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Syrians between the ‘Occupier’, ‘Ally’ and Taliban ‘Victory’

Sweets are handed out in Idlib to celebrate the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. (Akhbar Idlib)
Sweets are handed out in Idlib to celebrate the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. (Akhbar Idlib)

Syria is among the countries most affected by the developments in Afghanistan, whether in regards to the American pullout or the rapid Taliban takeover. Syria and Afghanistan are similar in that several countries are embroiled in their conflict.

Various Syrian parties are quick to comment on defeats and victories in other countries, drawing parallels to what is taking place in their homeland.

Damascus watched with bated breath the rapid developments that unfolded in Kabul. Officials expressed their “relief” at the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its implication on its Syrian allies – namely the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Former minister and leading member of the ruling Baath party Mahdi Dakhlallah compared the American withdrawal from Afghanistan to its pullout from Vietnam in 1975. “There is one lesson to be learned: America very simply and mercilessly abandons its agents,” he remarked, saying the US-backed SDF must be diligent.

Dakhlallah suggested that the SDF take up “resistance because it is better than surrender and compromise.” That was the same suggestion made by president Bashar Assad when he was sworn in for a new term in office last month. He spoke of the need for “popular resistance” to force the US to pull out of Syria.

Syrian officials in Damascus have also refused to engage the SDF in political negotiations over the region east of the Euphrates River and the autonomous administration. Damascus has restricted agreements with the SDF to administrative understandings, providing services and economic exchanges.

US President Joe Biden’s remarks that Washington was not concerned with the building of nations, meaning changing regimes, is music to the ears of officials in Damascus. However, his pledge that the US will continue to fight ISIS means that the Americans are not ready to quit Syria. The Syrian demand for the “American occupier to leave” will still stand even as it ignores the presence of Russian and Iranian forces on its soil.

The Russian and Iranian deployment is seen as legitimate by Damascus that had officially requested this support. This is not a view shared by the Syrian opposition that views the Russians and Iranians as occupiers, “who should be resisted.” This was best demonstrated by the Syrian Islamic Council, which is the political wing of the armed factions, when it congratulated the Afghan people for “expelling the occupier”. It also congratulated them on the Taliban “victory against the colonizer and its agents.”

The Istanbul-based council believes that history has shown that colonizers are destined to be defeated no matter how long they are in power. “We hope the Syrians would enjoy security in their country after it is purified of the filthy Iranian and Russian occupiers and their agents,” it declared.

The extremist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which controls the majority of the Idlib province in northwestern Syria, also extended its congratulations to the Taliban and Afghan people on their “victory”. It hoped that the Syrian revolt would also witness such a victory that would see the country liberated from occupiers. It went so far to say that Syria could draw “inspiration” from the Afghan experience and adopt “jihad and resistance to achieve freedom and dignity by toppling the Syrian regime.”

Moreover, members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham even handed out sweets on the streets to mark the “victory”. Affiliated social media accounts also spoke of deriving lessons from the Afghan experience.

One leading member of the group commented: “The developments in Afghanistan are similar to what the Syrian people are enduring in their demands for freedom from the oppressive regime and its allies, such as the Russian and Iranian occupiers.” Another user said: “Taliban has redrawn global policy.”

Of course, questions now have to be raised about the fate of foreign fighters, who had defected from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and others who were close to ISIS and al-Qaeda. Many of these fighters are Afghans and had come to Syria years ago. Are they thinking about returning to the “land of jihad” – Afghanistan?

Significantly, those among the opposition who are hailing the Taliban “victory” have failed to mention Turkey and its role in Syria, similar to how Damascus ignored Iran and Russia.

However, the American pullout reminded other opposition figures of how quick the US was to abandon them when it signed the agreement on southern Syria that included the scrapping of an American program to train members of the Free Syrian Army. The pullout also reminded the SDF of former US President Donald Trump’s sudden withdrawal from a region east of the Euphrates, effectively giving the green light for Turkey to fill the void.

Indeed, the SDF may be the party most alarmed by the rapid American withdrawal from Afghanistan and its implications on the Kurds. True, Biden’s declaration that he is committed to fighting ISIS may reassure them, but their memory of fall 2019 is still raw.



Borderless Europe Fights Brain Drain as Talent Heads North

Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
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Borderless Europe Fights Brain Drain as Talent Heads North

Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo

Until recently aerospace engineer Pedro Monteiro figured he'd join many of his peers moving from Portugal to its richer European neighbors in the quest for a better-paid job once he completes his master's degree in Lisbon.
But tax breaks proposed by Portugal's government for young workers - up to a temporary 100% income tax exemption in some cases - plus help with housing are making him think twice.
"Previous governments left young people behind," said Monteiro, 23, who is studying engineering and industrial management at the Higher Technical Institute in the Portuguese capital. "The country needs us and we want to stay but we need to see signs from the government that they are implementing policies that will help."
Monteiro cites in particular the cost of buying or renting a home amid a housing crisis aggravated by the arrival of wealthy foreigners lured by easy residency rights and tax breaks, Reuters said.
He is doubtful the government's new measures will be enough.
"Some of my friends are now working abroad and earn substantially more money... and have better career development opportunities," he said. "I'm a little bit skeptical concerning my job opportunities here in Portugal."
Portugal is the latest country in Europe to seek to tackle a brain drain holding back its economy. Tax breaks for young workers in the budget currently going through parliament will take effect next year and could benefit as many as 400,000 young people at an annual cost of 525 million euros.
Talent flight to wealthier countries of the north is a problem Portugal shares with several others in southern and central Europe, as workers take advantage of freedom of movement rules within the trade bloc. Countries including Italy have tried other schemes to counter the flight, with mixed results.
By exacerbating regional labor shortages and depriving poorer countries of tax revenues, it is yet another hurdle for the EU as it tries to improve its ebbing economic growth while addressing population decline and lagging labor productivity.
Donald Trump's victory in US elections this month raises the stakes, with the risk of across-the-board trade tariffs on European exports of at least 10% - a move that economists say could turn Europe's anaemic growth into outright recession.
About 2.3 million people born in Portugal, or 23% of its population, currently live abroad, according to Portugal's Emigration Observatory. That includes 850,000 Portuguese nationals aged 15-39, or about 30% of young Portuguese and 12.6% of its working-age population.
More concerning still is that about 40% of 50,000 people who graduate from universities or technical colleges emigrate each year, according to a study by Business Roundtable Portugal and Deloitte based on official statistics, costing Portugal billions of euros in lost income tax revenue and social security contributions.
DEMOGRAPHIC HELL
"This is not a country for young people," said Pedro Ginjeira do Nascimento, executive director of Business Roundtable Portugal, which represents 43 of the largest companies in the nation of 10 million people. "Portugal is experiencing a true demographic hell because the country is unable to create conditions to retain and attract young talent."
Internal migration within the EU is partly driven by the disparity in wages between its member states. Some economic migrants also say they are looking for better benefits such as pensions and healthcare and less rigid, hierarchichal structures that give more responsibility to those in junior roles.
Concerns are mounting over the long-term viability of Europe's economic model with its rapidly ageing population and failure to win substantial shares of high-growth markets of the future, from tech to renewable energy.
Presenting a raft of reform proposals aimed at boosting local innovation and investment, former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said in September the region faced a "slow agony" of decline if it did not compete more effectively.
Eszter Czovek, 45, and her husband are moving from Hungary to Austria, where workers earn an average 40.9 euros ($29.95) per hour compared to 12.8 euros per hour in Hungary, the largest wage gap between neighboring countries in the EU.
The number of Hungarians living in Austria increased to 107,264 by the beginning of 2024 from just 14,151 when Hungary joined the EU.
Czovek's husband, who works in construction, was offered a job in Austria, while she has worked in media and accounting at various multinationals. She cited better pay, pensions, work conditions and healthcare as motives for moving. She also mentioned her concern over the political situation in Hungary, which she fears might join Britain in leaving the EU.
"There was a change of regime here in 1989 and 30 years later we are still waiting for the miracle that will see us catch up with Austria," Czovek said of the revolution over three decades ago that ended communist rule in Hungary.
Since Brexit, the Netherlands has replaced Britain as a preferred destination for Portuguese talent while Germany and Scandinavian countries are also popular.
Many Europeans still head to the United States in search of better jobs - about 4.7 million were living there in 2022, according to the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute, which nonetheless notes a long-term decline since the 1960s.
In 2023, 4,892 Portuguese emigrated to the Netherlands, surpassing Britain for the first time, which in 2019 received 24,500 Portuguese.
At home, they face the eighth-highest tax burden in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) even as house prices rose 186% and rents by 94% since 2015, according to property specialists Confidencial Imobiliario.
A single person in Portugal without children earned an average of 16,943 euros after tax in 2023 compared to 45,429 euros in the Netherlands, according to Eurostat.
Portugal will offer under 35s earning up to 28,000 euros a year a 100% tax exemption during their first year of work, gradually reducing the benefit to a 25% deduction between the eighth and tenth years.
Young people would also be exempted from transaction taxes and stamp duty when buying their first home as well as access to loans guaranteed by the state and rent subsidies.
"We are designing a solid package that tries to solve the main reasons why the young leave," Cabinet Minister Antonio Leitao Amaro said in an interview with Reuters.
'THINGS WON'T CHANGE'
Leitao Amaro said he did not know for sure if the tax breaks would work but that his government, which came into office in April, had to try something new.
"If we don't act ambitiously, things won't change and Portugal will continue down this path," he said.
The Italian government has already found that tax breaks used as incentives are costly and open to fraud.
In January, Italy abruptly curtailed its own scheme that was costing 1.3 billion euros in lost tax revenue, even as it lured tech workers such as Alessandra Mariani back home.
Before 2024, returners were offered a 70% tax break for five years, extendable for another five years in certain circumstances. Now, it plans to offer a slimmed-down scheme targeting specific skills after it attracted only 1,200 teachers or researchers - areas where Italy has a particular shortage.
Mariani said the incentives were key to persuading her to return to Milan in 2021 by allowing her to maintain the same standard of living she enjoyed in London.
"Had the opportunity been the same without the scheme, I would not have done it at all," said Mariani, now working at the Italian arm of the same large tech company.
With her tax breaks poised to be phased out by 2026 unless she buys a house or has a child, Mariani faces a drop in salary and she said she's once again eyeing the exit door.