Passing through Syria without Engaging Damascus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
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Passing through Syria without Engaging Damascus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)

Among the various issues tackled by CIA director William Burns in Beirut earlier this month was connecting power from Jordan to Lebanon through Syria.

The connection would effectively pass through Syria without politically engaging with Damascus.

Burns was not the first official to propose using Syria as a crossing point without actually dealing with Damascus.

The US has agreed to help Lebanon tackle its crippling electricity crisis in response to a proposal by Hezbollah to bring in fuel from Iran.

The American proposal was made at Jordan and Lebanon’s suggestion and through a mechanism that works around US sanctions and avoids criticism from Washington. The problem, however, lies with Syria itself.

Damascus needs gas and electricity for the greater Arab project to connect electricity from Egypt to Lebanon through Jordan and Syria. This project would also help Syria out of its own darkness.

Officials in Syria are seeking to exploit Lebanon and Jordan’s needs for two purposes: Extending gas and electricity to Syria at a cost and opening political channels of communication with Washington and Arab countries.

Washington is still wary of political dealings with Damascus. Dealing with the Syrian reality differs from “legitimizing the regime”. Extending power connections would be limited to energy, not extending a hand in politics. That is why Washington tasked Beirut and Amman to tackle technical and political obstacles with Damascus.

Burns had notably visited Beirut shortly after Jordan’s King Abdullah II had visited Washington for talks with President Joe Biden in July.

The monarch had proposed the formation of an international-regional “working group” that includes Russia to implement a joint “roadmap” for Syria. The roadmap would include a series of elements, starting from Washington’s position for the regime to change its behavior, rather than demand complete regime change. This should achieve stability in Syria and restore its sovereignty, ensure the withdrawal of foreign forces and militias and implement a political solution for the crisis.

King Abdullah’s next stop was Moscow where he held talks on Monday with President Vladimir Putin and hailed the Russian role in achieving stability in Syria.

The visit coincided with Russian-led negotiations on the ground to reach a settlement in the southern province of Daraa that borders Jordan. The negotiations are focusing the pullout of Iranian militias from the area and a return of state authority in the South. The opposition is demanded to agree to an acceptable settlement. Talks are also focusing on the situation in Sweida and countering terrorism and drugs smuggling and their impact on Jordan.

The next stop for Jordanian officials is Iraq, which is hosting on Saturday a summit for regional countries at the initiative of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

Syrian president Bashar Assad will not attend the event, but the war-torn country will be a main topic of discussions.

Kadhimi had dispatched an envoy to Assad to brief him about the summit and to discuss what Damascus can offer Baghdad so that a future summit could tackle the possibility of Syria returning to the Arab fold after its membership in the Arab League was suspended nine years ago.

It is evident that American opposition to such political moves and initiatives is not as unyielding as it was under the term of President Donald Trump. However, it is also clear that the Biden administration is not open to broader and deeper political initiatives.

As it stands, it is only limiting its interest to the ties between the Kurds in Qamishli with the Damascus government, preventing the resurgence of ISIS, providing the green light and intelligence for Israeli strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria, and maintaining pressure on the regime, through sanctions and continued isolation, in the hopes it changes its behavior.

Amid the above, several proposed projects will in all likelihood pass through Syria without actually engaging Damascus.



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.