Three ISIS Members Tell Asharq Al-Awsat About the Organization’s Expansion, Decline

A Tunisian man from Sfax in one of the prisons of the Syrian Democratic Forces. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A Tunisian man from Sfax in one of the prisons of the Syrian Democratic Forces. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT

Three ISIS Members Tell Asharq Al-Awsat About the Organization’s Expansion, Decline

A Tunisian man from Sfax in one of the prisons of the Syrian Democratic Forces. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A Tunisian man from Sfax in one of the prisons of the Syrian Democratic Forces. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The security authorities of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria granted Asharq Al-Awsat a permission to interview three former ISIS members, at the anti-terror headquarters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in al-Hasakah.

The three were young men when they decided to join the organization in Syria. They got married and had children in combat. Today, after their surrender and detention, they know nothing about the fate of their wives and children.

The Afghan Experience

A.N. is a German young man, born in 1987. He said he came from a small family, an older brother of two siblings, who had all completed their university studies. He parents, who are still alive, found out about his orientation during his university studies, due to his continuous talk about the “Afghan experience” and the Taliban movement, which fought the US army and the international coalition for years, saying: “I was impressed by the defeat of the Soviet Union, but their project was not as clear as ISIS, who took control of areas.”

The young German man tells that, while following the news bulletin in the summer of 2012 and the explosion of the Syrian radio and television building, he heard about Al-Nusra Front, only to know later that it was the Syrian arm of ISIS.

At the end of 2012, he flew to Egypt, from which he completed the trip towards Turkey, and entered the city of Idlib, western Syria, under fake names, to undergo a combat course, and remained there for nearly a year. After the separation of Al-Nusra – currently known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham - from ISIS, he joined the ranks of the latter, and went to the city of Raqqa, which at that time was the organization’s administrative capital.

When asked about the organization’s expansionist wars during 2014 and 2015, he replied: “The biggest enemy was Bashar al-Assad, who was a war criminal, but the conditions of the war dictated a change in tactics and objectives at the time.”

After the battles intensified in Raqqa in the summer of 2017, and the geographic area under ISIS control receded, he went to the city of Al-Mayadin in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. In the spring of 2019, he surrendered to the International Coalition Forces.

A Tunisian Recruited By His Neighbor

Mustapha (H.A.), was born in 1989 in the city of Sfax in Tunisia, but lived in Sousse, which overlooks the sea. He revealed that the famous 3-D game “Counter-Strike” changed the course of his life.

The game featured two teams - a terrorist group and a counter army – while players used to exchange roles.

He recounted that one day, as he was sitting before his computer, and saw pictures and clips showing the Syrian regime’s suppression of peaceful protesters, he said: “My neighbor was sitting next to me, and I asked him: What is happening there? He told me secretly that he intended to travel to rid the Syrians of the tyrant.”

Without the knowledge of his family, the young man traveled with his neighbor by land to Libya and from there by air to Turkey. Then, at the end of 2012, they entered the countryside of Lattakia, western Syria, where Al-Nusra Front had spread. He later went to Aleppo, where he joined ISIS.

Mustapha refused to comment on the killing scenes, but he spoke about his wife, saying: “I love my wife, and I have children with her...and this is a positive thing in my life, as for the rest, I am not content with it.”

He remained in the ranks of the organization until it was defeated in Baghouz. He tried to escape with his wife and children, but they were arrested on February 15, 2019.

A Syrian Man Joining “Work”

For Malik (37 years old), who comes from al-Bab in the countryside of Aleppo, the year 2014 was nothing but a date. That year, ISIS launched more than 100 suicide attacks on his hometown.

He recounted that after the militants of the organization tightened their control over the region, Malik was forced to join the ranks of ISIS to get work.

He worked first in the Court of Justice, then in the local police and combat. He said: “The marriage office offered me to marry a Syrian woman from Aleppo, and indeed I decided to marry her, and I did not marry a second woman.”

He said that he engaged in many battles and witnessed the organization’s losses from Aleppo to Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. He added: “I tried to escape when they were expelled from Manbij, and then I tried in Tabqa and Raqqa, but I did not succeed. I stayed until the battle of Baghouz, and surrendered to the coalition.”



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.