Russia Concedes ‘Syrian Constitution’ to Attract the US

The envoys of Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden are expected to meet in Geneva on Wednesday, which will likely outline the shape of Russian-American understandings on Syria for the coming period.

Moscow has succeeded in reaping political concessions, albeit symbolic ones, from Damascus, and imposing “a military status quo” on the ground in wake of the Daraa settlement and recent escalation in Idlib.

These elements will be on the table when the Russian envoy meets his American counterpart with Moscow demanding a “political price” for its efforts.

On Damascus’ end, the “political concession” was its agreement to receive United Nations envoy Geir Pedersen after nearly two months of putting off his visit. The meeting was held after Russia directly intervened and after Iran “advised” Syrian officials to agree to it.

The second breakthrough was the agreement of head of the government delegation to the Constitutional Committee to kick off the UN-proposed efforts to “draft” the new constitution. A sixth round of committee talks will be held in Geneva on October 6.

Damascus had previously said it was upset with Pedersen for agreeing to meet with a Daraa delegation while negotiations were still ongoing between local committees and the regime to avert military escalation. It was also upset with his failure to discuss a regime proposal at the Constitutional Committee. These two factors, however, were forgotten once Russia “advised” Damascus to receive Pedersen.

In return, however, Damascus received UN “silence” over the statement its foreign ministry had issued in wake of the envoy’s meeting. The statement said the talks focused on the “actual developments on the ground in Daraa and the Syrian state’s satisfaction with the solutions that were reached.” It also spoke of “pressuring” the UN to declare a clearer stance on the “unilateral sanctions”, the “Turkish and American occupations”, and “foreign interference.”
As for the new military facts on the ground, they were represented with the regime’s return to Daraa, “the cradle of the revolution”, for the first time in ten years. A western official said this was possible after Russia, the US and Jordan – the parties of the 2018 deal on southern Syria – sponsored the completion of the implementation of the agreement, which calls for the regime’s full return to the region and easing Iran’s influence there.

With calm returning to Daraa, Russia began to escalate its military actions in the northwestern opposition-held Idlib province. This coincided with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declaring that Turkey had “failed to meet its commitments” in northwestern Syria. This was followed by Russian jet strikes on southern Idlib. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar responded by saying that it was Russia that had failed to meet its promises.

Of course, Moscow is eying in Idlib the reopening of the Aleppo-Latakia highway. It wants the ceasefire to hold, stop the military operations there and root out the extremists. As long as Russia and Turkey are deploying joint patrols in the region, then these goals will likely be met and the ground will be paved for new understandings between them. Perhaps the reopening of the Aleppo-Latakia highway could be exchanged for a Turkish incursion against the Kurds in the region east of the Euphrates.

Ultimately, the Russian escalation in Idlib is aimed at extracting American offers against the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham extremist group that Washington has blacklisted as terrorist.

All these issues and more will be discussed in Geneva between Russian envoy Alexander Lavrentiev and American envoy Brett McGurk. All signals point to Washington leaning towards adopting the Russian reading of the situation in Syria. McGurk’s primary concern would be seeking an alliance of parties seeking to combat terrorism and preventing the resurgence of ISIS, especially in wake of the US pullout from Afghanistan.

He will likely encourage arrangements between Damascus and Qamishli, with Moscow’s guarantees, reduce Turkey’s interest in the region east of the Euphrates and offer incentives to the Russians about funding Syria’s early recovery, providing exemptions from the Caesar Act and fighting terrorism.

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.

Russia Concedes ‘Syrian Constitution’ to Attract the US