Lebanon Sleeps under a ‘Truce,’ Fears the Next Day

Members of the Lebanese army in the area of clashes in Beirut (Reuters)
Members of the Lebanese army in the area of clashes in Beirut (Reuters)
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Lebanon Sleeps under a ‘Truce,’ Fears the Next Day

Members of the Lebanese army in the area of clashes in Beirut (Reuters)
Members of the Lebanese army in the area of clashes in Beirut (Reuters)

Clashes in the Tayouneh area of the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, have left new holes in buildings that witnessed the 1975 civil war. These bullet holes come to warn of what awaits Lebanon if the course of things does not change.

What stands out is that the clashes erupted in the very same area that witnessed the event that sparked the civil war a few decades back.

Unidentified shooters fired at a rally of demonstrators, an assault that prompted a retaliation in kind. The gunfire was so heavy that even the army took a while before it could intervene and contain the violence.

The clashes reinforced the symbolism of the Christian area of Ain El Remmaneh and the Shiite suburb of Chiyah. After transforming the two areas into a war zone for hours, the clashes exhausted the memory of the elderly, who were forced to relive a glimpse of the civil war once again.

“We thought we buried the war forever, but it’s coming back,” said Abu George, a shop owner in Ain El Remmaneh.

“This is not a passing problem, it is a prelude to a new war, and we will defend ourselves once again and will not allow them to violate our territories,” he added as he closed his shop under heavy gunfire.

“We resisted all campaigns aimed at eliminating our existence, and this is no different from others since the days of the Ottomans,” noted Abu Geroge’s neighbor.

The streets of Ain El Remmaneh were almost empty during the clashes as the army had cordoned the area and set up mobile checkpoints to prevent violence with neighboring Chiyah.

After the clashes ended, flocks of residents rushed to escape the scene as they feared the fighting would renew in the evening.

One of the residents recites an old Lebanese proverb: “Do not sleep among the graves so that you do not see nightmares.”

“I will go back to my village in Kesrouan for a few days, and then we will see,” the resident noted.

“We are full. They kill us and use us to fight, then we elect them again,” they added with a sigh.

A Lebanese security reference told Asharq Al-Awsat that the army is now taking the lead in the area that witnessed the clashes. Still, the main fear is that some will take advantage of the matter to do something similar in other parts of the country.

For the time being, the Lebanese will sleep with anxiety while the military will stay wide awake without guaranteeing that the tragedy will not be repeated.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.