Saudi Arabia has announced that the talks with Iran “are still exploratory, and they have not yielded substantive results yet.” In a US-Western statement, the White House warned Iran of the “accelerated pace of provocative nuclear steps.”
That all begs the question, will this statement or the negotiations with Saudi Arabia change Tehran’s behavior? Will it feel that there is a stick, not just a carrot? True, US sanctions on Iran were recently announced, but are they sufficient?
Besides all that, calls for raising the specter of military action against Iran are growing louder in Washington. For example, former US Middle East envoy Dennis Ross wrote a striking article for Foreign Policy arguing that Tehran no longer takes Washington seriously, and so the threat of military escalation must be put back on the table if the US hopes to make progress on the nuclear deal.
Once again, the question is: Will Iran learn and take the warnings and negotiations seriously? I doubt it. Iran is not merely procrastinating. It recently targeted a US base with a drone; we see armed groups loyal to Tehran trying to burn Baghdad to reverse the election results, and the Houthis’ terrorism persists.
Tehran is aware that the US administration is constrained by domestic problems and that Washington is disoriented by its reclassification of who constitutes an enemy. Iran also realizes that the American elephant is still in its allies’ room, not that of its enemies. On top of that, Washington continues to negotiate with Iran through a team of doves that does not include a single hawk. It has also yet shown its teeth in response to the acts of Iranian sabotage either.
It is true that Washington has, for example, approved the sale of missiles to Saudi Arabia, which the State Department spokesperson said came after “an increase in cross-border attacks against Saudi Arabia,” and the State Department said that the deal is “in keeping with the President’s commitment to support the territorial defense of Saudi Arabia.”
Despite that, Iran hasn’t yet felt the “stick” since the terrorist Qassem Soliemani was killed by an American drone strike in Baghdad. There is no doubt that Iran only understands the language of strength and that Tehran does not see that the negotiations are part of diplomatic solutions. Nor does it heed warnings.
Thus, the quadrilateral statement will have no impact, neither will Saudi-Iranian negotiations. Iran’s eyes are glued to Israel, as Republican Senator and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Jim Risch has said.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, he expressed his confidence that “Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon,” stressing that “Israel would not allow it.” He added that it is not the US that will stop that from happening: “and it won’t be any of the sides sitting at the negotiation table… you know who I mean.”
Later during the important interview, when the senator is asked if the prospect of Israel doing so makes him afraid, he replies: “No, I am not afraid; I am confident that (Israel) will do so.”
And so, Iran has its eye on and fears Israel, not the Biden administration, and this is the language Tehran surely does understand.
