Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the region has been constantly criticizing the United States for allegedly having neglected “the day after” in Iraq. It seems the US and the West have become convinced that this neglect had been a mistake, and they now repeat it in the context of the war between Israel and Iran.
The real problem is that everyone (in the region itself, along with Israel and Iran) is repeating the same mistake by ignoring “the present day,” not just “the day after.”
For the region, it’s true that no one wants war. How else, though, could we stop Iran’s nuclear and missile projects, or its support for militias?
As for Iran, how can it keep fighting, especially with US intervention and amid this astonishing Israeli infiltration of Tehran? It has no air defense system, and Israel has total control over Iran’s airspace.
Israel, regardless of the victory it may achieve, has not found an answer for Gaza and the Palestinian cause. What will it do about the ongoing war in Gaza and the Israeli hostages who remain in Hamas’s hands?
When the Turkish president says he is optimistic that Iran will defeat Israel. He is delusional. How does he reconcile this support with the Iranian regime’s hostility toward the new Syria today? And how does he tolerate the Iranian militias in Baghdad, which refuses to sincerely engage with the new Syria?
As for the Europeans, how can they argue that there are no military solutions to the Iranian crisis when they offer no real diplomatic alternatives? Their soft approach has failed everywhere the Europeans have intervened. The clearest example is France’s initiative in Lebanon following the Beirut port blast, which has yielded no results to this day!
And how can Iran’s followers (militias and sectarian leaders in Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen) warn about “the day after” as they ignore their responsibility for the corruption and destruction of “the current day” in their countries and the region? The same question could be posed to certain sentimental intellectuals.
The same for the United States: how can it call for caution of “the day after” as it ignores the present day in Gaza, allowing Israel’s aggression to remain unchecked, with no ceiling, limit, or plan? The same applies in Yemen with the Houthis.
And how can the US worry about “the day after” in Iran while disregarding “the current day” when it comes to the peace process? It must facilitate peace, through an “Oslo II.”
Of course, this is not to downplay the significance of “the day after” for any of the region’s crises, especially the Israeli-Iranian war. Although it has been awaited since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime and the regional development that followed, “the current day” cannot be ignored.
Accordingly, if the region has learned any lesson — or should have — it is that postponing the handling of crises, or running from them headfirst, only leads to worse outcomes. The conflicting roles played by various regional actors have catastrophic consequences — both today and tomorrow.
Therefore, urgent and immediate action is needed to fix things in “the current day,” and this might help pave the way for a better “day after.” This applies to moderates in the region, as well as Iran, Israel, the West, and the United States.
The bottom line is that dealing with “the present day” is just as important as preparing for “the day after.” Both must be addressed. Otherwise, “the day after” will simply become an extension of today’s devastation.
