Washington's Priorities in Syria Don't Include Iran's Withdrawal

The administration of US President Joe Biden has set five priorities in Syria, none of which call for the withdrawal of Iran, in contrast to the previous administration of President Donald Trump.

According to information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, the priorities discussed by American officials behind closed doors are keeping troops deployed in northeastern Syria until the defeat of the ISIS group; providing cross-border aid; maintaining the ceasefire; supporting efforts to hold human rights violators to account and abandoning weapons of mass destruction; pushing forward a political settlement based on United Nations Security Council resolution 2254. Washington is also keen on supporting the stability of Syria's neighbors, including Jordan and Israel.

These priorities were outlined by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the conference for the international coalition to defeat ISIS in June. Biden's team is expected to reiterate them when the coalition holds a second meeting in Brussels next month.

Meanwhile, earlier this week Blinken declared during a press conference with his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Washington that the US continues to oppose the normalization of ties with Damascus.

"I would simply urge all of our partners to remember the crimes that the [Bashar] Assad regime has committed and indeed continues to commit. We don’t support normalization, and again, we would emphasize to our friends and partners to consider the signals that they’re sending," he said.

Application of priorities
The priorities are the culmination of efforts by the Biden administration since he was sworn in as president some ten months.

US Central Command commander Kenneth McKenzie had paid a secret visit to northeastern Syria in wake of the chaotic American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in order to reassure Washington's Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that the US will continue to remain deployed in the region east of the Euphrates River.

The US has also exerted pressure on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against launching a new military operation along Turkey's border with Syria because it may distract from the fight against ISIS.

The overall impression is that American forces will remain in their positions until the end of Biden's term.

As for humanitarian files, Biden's Syria team has held dialogue with Russian President Vladimir's Putin's envoy to Syria to ensure that the relevant Security Council resolution on cross-border aid deliveries will be extended. Indeed, it was extended in July and US National Security Council’s coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, Russian deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin and the presidential envoy Alexander Lavrentiev met in Geneva this week to agree to extend it for another six months when it expires in early 2022.

On the diplomatic level, the Biden administration has continued to issue statements in support of a comprehensive ceasefire in Syria, the activation of the political process and carrying out constitutional reform in line with resolution 2254. Along with France and Britain, it has also encouraged the Syrian opposition to bring up rights violations committed by the regime.

In late July, the US Treasury issued a new list of sanctions against Syrian figures over human rights violations and ties to terrorism. Washington has also allowed exemptions from the Caesar Act that would allow the operation of the Arab Gas Pipeline from Egypt to Jordan to Syria and then to Lebanon. The exemption was granted on condition that Damascus would not benefit financially from the move or that the parties concerned would not deal with figures and entities that are on the sanctions list.

Iran... the elephant in the room
Apparently, the important elements in these priorities are issues that have not been mentioned, which are the goals that were set by the Trump administration.

Biden's team has yet to appoint an envoy to Syria like James Jeffrey and his predecessors. The file is still being mainly handled by McGurk, while the Defense and State Departments are no longer as involved in it as they were under Trump. It remains to be seen if this will still be the case when Barbara Leaf assumes her position in the State Department. Leaf is nominated as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs.

Moreover, the Biden team has not launched a diplomatic and political campaign with Arab countries to prevent them from normalizing ties with Damascus. American officials have so far informed Arab officials that the US does not encourage normalization and it will not take that step.

Furthermore, it believes that normalization should come at a price, significantly since the Caesar Act still stands.

"None of them have been told not to" speak with Assad by senior American officials, Jeffrey said this week. As a result, Arab leaders feel they have an implicit green light to strengthen ties with Assad’s regime.

This is not the only change. On the geopolitical level, there has been a significant shift in the declared stance on Iran's presence in Syria.

The Trump administration's Syria strategy was drafted by his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Jeffrey and others. It prioritized the defeat of ISIS; support for the implementation of resolution 2254; Iran's withdrawal from Syria; prevent the regime from using weapons of mass destruction and ridding it of chemical arms; and providing the necessary humanitarian aid to ease the suffering of Syrians in Syria and abroad.

The former administration had also set conditions for normalizing ties with Assad: Ending support to terrorism; ending support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah; refraining from threatening neighboring countries; abandoning weapons of mass destruction; the voluntary return of refugees and the displaced; and holding war criminals to account.

The administration had resorted to isolating Damascus - in coordination with its Arab and European allies - to implement its priorities in Syria. It also kept American troops deployed east of the Euphrates and at the al-Tanf base. It prevented Damascus from benefiting from strategic resources and imposed economic sanctions and introduced the Caesar Act. It stood against Arab or European normalization with Assad and provided intelligence and logistic support to Israeli raids in Syria and to Turkey's deployment in northwestern regions.

McGurk's appears to have a different approach that the former administration. He believes that the American goals must be aligned with its tools and ability to use these tools, as well as how willing Moscow is to work with this pressure.

The Biden team has been keen on preventing the collapse of the Iran nuclear negotiations and has held back from taking escalatory steps against it in Syria.

In an article to Foreign Policy in 2019, McGurk said the Arab countries will resume cooperation with Damascus. Washington's opposition to such a move will force the Arabs to carry out diplomacy behind Washington's back, so the best approach is for the US to draft a realistic agenda with its Arab partners. This includes encouraging them to condition renewing relations with Assad in exchange for trust-building measures from the regime.

The Biden team is expected to present its goals in Syria to Washington's partners on the sidelines of next month's international anti-ISIS coalition conference.

In deserted villages and communities near the southern Lebanon border, Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters have watched each other for months, shifting and adapting in a battle for the upper hand while they wait to see if a full scale war will come.

Ever since the start of the Gaza war last October, the two sides have exchanged daily barrages of rockets, artillery, missile fire and air strikes in a standoff that has just stopped short of full-scale war.

Tens of thousands have been evacuated from both sides of the border, and hopes that children may be able to return for the start of the new school year in September appear to have been dashed following an announcement by Israeli Education Minister Yoav Kisch on Tuesday that conditions would not allow it.

"The war is almost the same for the past nine months," Lieutenant Colonel Dotan, an Israeli officer, who could only be identified by his first name. "We have good days of hitting Hezbollah and bad days where they hit us. It's almost the same, all year, all the nine months."

As the summer approaches its peak, the smoke trails of drones and rockets in the sky have become a daily sight, with missiles regularly setting off brush fires in the thickly wooded hills along the border.

Israeli strikes have killed nearly 350 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and more than 100 civilians, including medics, children and journalists, while 10 Israeli civilians, a foreign agricultural worker and 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed.

Even so, as the cross border firing has continued, Israeli forces have been training for a possible offensive in Lebanon which would dramatically increase the risk of a wider regional war, potentially involving Iran and the United States.

That risk was underlined at the weekend when the Yemen-based Houthis, a militia which like Hezbollah is backed by Iran, sent a drone to Tel Aviv where it caused a blast that killed a man and prompted Israel to launch a retaliatory raid the next day.

Standing in his home kibbutz of Eilon, where only about 150 farmers and security guards remain from a normal population of 1,100, Lt. Colonet Dotan said the two sides have been testing each other for months, in a constantly evolving tactical battle.

"This war taught us patience," said Dotan. "In the Middle East, you need patience."

He said Israeli troops had seen an increasing use of Iranian drones, of a type frequently seen in Ukraine, as well as Russian-made Kornet anti tank missiles which were increasingly targeting houses as Israeli tank forces adapted their own tactics in response.

"Hezbollah is a fast-learning organization and they understood that UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) are the next big thing and so they went and bought and got trained in UAVs," he said.

Israel had responded by adapting its Iron Dome air defense system and focusing its own operations on weakening Hezbollah's organizational structure by attacking its experienced commanders, such as Ali Jaafar Maatuk, a field commander in the elite Radwan forces unit who was killed last week.

"So that's another weak point we found. We target them and we look for them on a daily basis," he said.

Even so, as the months have passed, the wait has not been easy for Israeli troops brought up in a doctrine of maneuver and rapid offensive operations.

"When you're on defense, you can't defeat the enemy. We understand that, we have no expectations," he said, "So we have to wait. It's a patience game."

Washington's Priorities in Syria Don't Include Iran's Withdrawal