UN Special Envoy Heads to Damascus for Two-Day Visit

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen speaks to the media about the sixth session of the Constitutional Committee Small Body, during a press conference at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021. (AP)
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen speaks to the media about the sixth session of the Constitutional Committee Small Body, during a press conference at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021. (AP)
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UN Special Envoy Heads to Damascus for Two-Day Visit

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen speaks to the media about the sixth session of the Constitutional Committee Small Body, during a press conference at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021. (AP)
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen speaks to the media about the sixth session of the Constitutional Committee Small Body, during a press conference at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021. (AP)

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen will travel to the war-torn country this week for a two-day visit, announced local media sources.

On Sunday, al-Watan newspaper quoted Arab diplomatic sources as saying that Pedersen, who will arrive in Damascus on Tuesday, is scheduled to meet with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad.

The envoy will discuss the possibility of holding a seventh round of the Constitutional Committee meetings in Geneva.

The meeting was expected to be held before the end of this year. However, a diplomatic source suggested that this round would be postponed until after Christmas and New Year's Eve and possibly until early February.

The envoy said in October that the discussions in Geneva between representatives of the regime and the opposition ended without progress, expressing "great disappointment."

The two parties had made no significant progress since the committee's formation in 2019.

The recent talks took place with 45 members, 15 representing each of the regime, opposition, and civil society.

For the first time, committee co-chairs Ahmad Kuzbari, the Syrian government representative, and Hadi al-Bahra, from the opposition, met in Geneva to discuss moving forward with constitutional reform, which gave hope the talks would achieve progress.

"I said to the 45 (members) that I thought this was a disappointment, and I had then afterward a serious round of discussion with the two Co-Chairs, and we agreed that it could not continue like this," said Pedersen at the time.

The envoy explained that the parties submitted draft constitutional texts.

The government delegation presented a draft on "the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic" and another text on "terrorism and extremism."

The opposition submitted a draft on "the army, security forces, and intelligence," while the civil society submitted a draft on "the rule of law."

The parties were supposed to agree on some points of contention, but failed. The opposition submitted a written proposal, while the government delegation did nothing.

The envoy stated: "We did not manage to achieve what we had hoped to achieve, that we would have a good discussion on how to reach forward for some kind of a consensus."

He stressed the need for a political will to find the right way in dealing with this process so that "we can start to minimize differences and identify areas of commonalities."

Kuzbari said his delegation came to the talks prepared to negotiate in good faith.

"We have listened to all proposals made by some of the participants, which, unfortunately, some of which were far from reality and even reflected malign thought and aggressive agendas," he remarked.

Bahra stated that "unfortunately, the party representing the government of the regime did not submit any text for reaching consensus."



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”