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Lebanon's Central Bank Sets New Rate for Withdrawals from Dollar Deposits

A view shows the Central Bank building, in Beirut, Lebanon November 12, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A view shows the Central Bank building, in Beirut, Lebanon November 12, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon's Central Bank Sets New Rate for Withdrawals from Dollar Deposits

A view shows the Central Bank building, in Beirut, Lebanon November 12, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A view shows the Central Bank building, in Beirut, Lebanon November 12, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanon's central bank said on Thursday it had set a new rate of 8,000 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar for withdrawals from bank deposits denominated in dollars but which can now only be accessed in the local currency.

The rate was previously set at 3,900 pounds, which implied a "haircut" or loss of more than 80% at the current market rate of around 25,000 pounds per dollar. The new rate represents a haircut of around 70%.

The central bank also set a withdrawal ceiling of $3,000 per month equivalent in Lebanese pounds for account-holders, who have been unable to freely access their savings since the collapse of the financial sector in 2019.

The central bank had maintained a pegged rate of 1,500 pounds per dollar until summer 2019, when it unofficially allowed the currency to become untethered after accumulating tens of billions of dollars in losses.

The pound has since lost more than 90% of its value, throwing the majority of Lebanon's population into poverty and leading to shortages of basic goods such as medicines in the formerly middle-income country.

The central bank officially maintains a rate of 1,500 but almost all goods trade at the market rate.

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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."