As Lira Swings, Some Foreign Banks Review or Scale Back Turkey Exposure

A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)
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As Lira Swings, Some Foreign Banks Review or Scale Back Turkey Exposure

A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)

Some foreign banks are reviewing limits for dollar lending to Turkish businesses amid the lira's wild fluctuations, two banking sources said, in a move that could drive up borrowing costs if the foreign lenders cut back.

At least two foreign banks have also withdrawn from cash trading the lira, separate sources at those banks said, potentially limiting local firms' access to foreign currency and hindering foreign investment.

The lira has been on a roller-coaster ride since September when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushed for interest rate cuts.

On Monday, it plunged 10% to 18.4 to the US dollar, taking its losses for the year to almost 60%, before whipsawing back to 12 after Erdogan unveiled a plan he said would guarantee local currency deposits against market fluctuations.

Turkish banks are regular international borrowers, and foreign lenders' reluctance to expose themselves to large currency gyrations could make it more expensive and more difficult for them to refinance their debts.

Fitch estimates foreign liabilities of Turkish lenders - mostly short-dated and held by large international banks - were equivalent to 22% of their funding at the end of June.

Total external debt at Turkish banks amounted to $138 billion at the end of the third quarter, with $83 billion due within 12 months, Fitch estimates.

Turkish banks rolled over their one-year foreign currency loans in October before the lira's latest plunge, but could be impacted in the next roll-over period in the first quarter, a regional banker said.

"We had a few banks that came to us and said they will review Turkish limits for the next roll-over period based on the kind of update they get on the economy," the banker said.

A second banking source said their bank had recently further limited short-term trade business with Turkey after cutting exposure on term loans.

"Every single deal needs to be approved by the risk department," the source said.

The sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

One senior Turkish banker said on Tuesday he was not aware of foreign counterparts reviewing or curbing lending.

Turkish banks have a long record of being able to access foreign funding despite multiple periods of stress, said Lindsey Liddell, head of Turkish bank ratings at Fitch.

Syndicated loan rollovers in the fourth quarter were at a lower cost than in the first half of 2021, with roll-over rates largely remaining above 100%, despite the market volatility, she said.

"Nevertheless, foreign currency liquidity could come under pressure from a prolonged market closure or significant foreign currency deposit outflows," Liddell said.

"Banks' access to foreign currency liquidity has also become more reliant on the central bank and could be uncertain at times of market stress."

The first banker said some Turkish companies had also made requests to relax conditions on their loan agreements due to the market turbulence, without providing details.

Caution

Erdogan's push for 500 basis points of interest rate cuts since September has set off Turkey's worst currency crisis in two decades, with the lira crashing nearly 40% in just the five weeks to last Friday.

Bid-ask spreads on the lira, a gauge of how easy it is to trade the currency, have widened sharply in recent days, with quotes nearing their widest in about a month.

In a further sign of waning investor confidence, implied volatility on the lira - or expected price swings - jumped to the highest on record as the lira fluctuated wildly.

One large European bank and an Asian bank said they had stopped cash trading in the lira and were extremely cautious about offering liquidity for forwards contracts, citing market volatility and policy risks. They also declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

JPMorgan has pulled back from offering algorithmic trading facilities in the lira, according to a notice seen by Reuters late last week when the market crashed. The US bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

John Marley, chief executive of consultancy forexxtra, said some banks were likely to switch to a system where they will only execute trades if they have another client transaction to offset it, meaning they take on no direct risk themselves.

"The last thing in the world you need is a small position in the lira blowing a hole in your annual trading statement," he said.

Still, for Sergey Dergachev, a senior portfolio manager at Union Investment, the currency crisis is unlikely to trigger defaults on international bonds by Turkish corporates, partly because they refinanced 2022 maturities earlier this year.

"Most issuers are also exporters and benefit operationally from lower lira levels, and severe credit deterioration ... is not a likely scenario I envisage for the Turkish corporate Eurobond issuers, and stay invested in them," he said.



Saudi Arabia Makes History with Adoption of Riyadh Treaty on Design Law

Photo of the Riyadh Diplomatic Conference on the Design Law Treaty (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Photo of the Riyadh Diplomatic Conference on the Design Law Treaty (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Makes History with Adoption of Riyadh Treaty on Design Law

Photo of the Riyadh Diplomatic Conference on the Design Law Treaty (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Photo of the Riyadh Diplomatic Conference on the Design Law Treaty (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia has made history by uniting the 193 member states of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) to adopt the Riyadh Treaty on Design Law. This landmark achievement, realized after two decades of deliberation, underscores the Kingdom’s leadership in enhancing the global intellectual property system.

The announcement came at the conclusion of the Riyadh Diplomatic Conference on the Design Law Treaty, a rare event for WIPO, which has not held a diplomatic conference outside Geneva for more than a decade. It was also the first such event hosted in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, representing the final stage of negotiations to establish an agreement aimed at simplifying and standardizing design protection procedures across member states.

Over the past two weeks, intensive discussions and negotiations among member states culminated in the adoption of the Riyadh Treaty, which commits signatory nations to a unified set of requirements for registering designs, ensuring consistent and streamlined procedures worldwide. The agreement is expected to have a significant positive impact on designers, enabling them to protect their creations more effectively and uniformly across international markets.

At a press conference held on Friday to mark the event’s conclusion, CEO of the Saudi Authority for Intellectual Property Abdulaziz Al-Suwailem highlighted the economic potential of the new protocol.

Responding to a question from Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Suwailem noted the substantial contributions of young Saudi men and women in creative design. He explained that the agreement will enable their designs to be formally protected, allowing them to enter markets as valuable, tradable assets.

He also emphasized the symbolic importance of naming the convention the Riyadh Treaty, stating that it reflects Saudi Arabia’s growing influence as a bridge between cultures and a global center for innovative initiatives.

The treaty lays critical legal foundations to support designers and drive innovation worldwide, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s vision of promoting international collaboration in the creative industries and underscoring its leadership in building a sustainable future for innovators.

The agreement also advances global efforts to enhance creativity, protect intellectual property, and stimulate innovation on a broader scale.

This achievement further strengthens Saudi Arabia’s position as a global hub for groundbreaking initiatives, demonstrating its commitment to nurturing creativity, safeguarding designers’ rights, and driving the development of creative industries on an international scale.

The Riyadh Diplomatic Conference, held from November 11 to 22, was hosted by the Saudi Authority for Intellectual Property and attracted high-ranking officials and decision-makers from WIPO member states.