Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)

The lira tumbled almost 8% against the dollar on Monday amid persisting investor concern over Turkey's monetary policy, having surged more than 50% last week after billions of dollars of state-backed market interventions.

The lira was also supported last week by a government move to cover FX losses on certain deposits.

It weakened to as low as 11.6 against the greenback on Monday before trimming losses to trade at 11.35 by 0800 GMT.

"The main exchange rate resistance is at 11.45 and 12.0, with support levels of 10.57 and 10.25," QNB Invest said in a daily bulletin.

Last week's rally brought the Turkish currency back to mid-November levels.

Last Monday, it had plunged to an all-time low of 18.4 per dollar, after a months-long slide due to fears of spiraling inflation driven by a succession of interest rate cuts engineered by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

At current levels the currency is still 35% weaker than at the end of last year.

Erdogan unveiled late last Monday a scheme under which the Treasury and central bank would reimburse losses on converted lira deposits against foreign currencies, sparking the lira's biggest intra-day rally.

Turks did not sell dollars in large quantities on Monday and Tuesday of last week, according to official data that suggested they had played little role in the gains. State interventions, meanwhile, cost the central bank more than $8 billion last week, according to traders' calculations.

The central bank sold $1.35 billion in direct forex interventions on Dec. 2-3 to support the lira when it stood around 13.5 per dollar, according to data.

In an interview with broadcaster AHaber, Erdogan said Turks showed confidence in the local currency and deposits increased by 23.8 billion lira after the anti-dollarization plan announcement.

But data from the BDDK banking watchdog showed that after heavy accumulation of dollars the previous week, Turkish individual depositors held $163.7 billion of hard currencies last Tuesday, virtually unchanged from Monday and Friday, when the total was $163.8 billion.

The lira got a big boost last week from what traders and economists called backdoor dollar sales by state banks, supported by the central bank.

Under pressure from Erdogan, the central bank has slashed its policy rates by 500 basis points to 14% since September, despite inflation that has risen to more than 21%. Price rises are set to exceed 30% next year in part due to the lira depreciation, economists predict.

The main BIST 100 stock index in Istanbul rose 2.6% on Monday morning.



IMF Sees 'Some Progress' on Lebanon Reforms, But Says External Support Needed

People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025.  EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025. EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
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IMF Sees 'Some Progress' on Lebanon Reforms, But Says External Support Needed

People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025.  EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025. EPA/WAEL HAMZEH

Lebanon has made progress on reforms needed to revive its economy but still has key steps to take and will need external funding on concessional terms, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday after a week of meetings in Beirut.

Lebanon's economy went into a tailspin in late 2019, prompted by decades of profligate spending by the country's ruling elite.

Reforms required to access IMF funding were repeatedly derailed by political and private interests, according to Reuters.

Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, both of whom took office in early 2025, pledged to prioritize reforms and secure an IMF financing agreement - but the country now faces additional needs with the widespread destruction and displacement caused by Israel's military campaign last year.

“The authorities have made some progress recently, including the amendment of the Bank Secrecy Law and submission of a new bank resolution law to Parliament,” the IMF's Lebanon mission chief Ramirez Rigo said in a written statement.

Rigo added that his mission held “productive discussions” with Lebanese officials, including on restoring the viability of the banking sector, fiscal and debt sustainability and enhancing anti-money laundering and terrorism financing measures.

He said Lebanon's medium-term fiscal framework should support the restructuring of Eurobond debts, which Lebanon defaulted on in 2020, leading to a sovereign default on its $31 billion of outstanding international bonds.

“Given Lebanon's substantial reconstruction needs, limited fiscal space and lack of capacity to borrow, the country will require significant support from external partners on highly concessional terms,” the IMF statement said.

The World Bank estimated Lebanon's recovery and reconstruction needs following Israel's military campaign at $11 billion. But the US has said it opposes any reconstruction funds to Lebanon until Hezbollah - the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group that fought Israel last year - is disarmed.