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Oil Prices Stay Firm

A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo
A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo
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Oil Prices Stay Firm

A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo
A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Thursday to extend several consecutive days of gains, buoyed by data showing US fuel demand holding up well despite soaring Omicron coronavirus infections.

Brent crude futures rose 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $79.47 a barrel at 0502 GMT, up for a fourth day. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $76.82 a barrel for a seventh session of gains.

"Oil prices edged higher overnight thanks to larger-than-expected falls in US crude and gasoline inventories and receding virus nerves," Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA said in a note.

US Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed crude oil inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 24, which was more than what analysts polled by Reuters had expected.

Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell, versus analysts' forecasts for builds, indicating demand remains strong despite record COVID-19 cases in the United States.

Oil prices also drew support from steps taken by governments to limit the impact of record high COVID-19 cases on economic growth, such as easing testing rules and narrowing who needs to isolate as close contacts of positive cases.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Jan. 4 to decide whether they will continue increasing output in February.

Saudi King Salman said on Wednesday the OPEC+ production agreement was "essential" to oil market stability and stressed the need for producers to comply with the pact.

Global oil prices have rebounded by 50% to 60% in 2021 as fuel demand roared back to near pre-pandemic levels while deep production cuts by OPEC+ producers for most of the year erased a supply glut that has been weighing on the market.

China, the world's top crude importer, has issued the first batch of 2022 import quotas to mostly independent refiners, totaling 109.03 million tons, 11% below the comparable year-earlier quota, industry sources said.

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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."