How Did Washington Deal with the Yemeni Crisis in 2021?

US envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking. (US State Department)
US envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking. (US State Department)
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How Did Washington Deal with the Yemeni Crisis in 2021?

US envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking. (US State Department)
US envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking. (US State Department)

Twenty-eight days separated the policies of US presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden in dealing with the crisis in Yemen.

The former had on the final day of his administration, January 20, 2021, blacklisted the Iran-backed Houthi militias, while Biden was quick to reverse the decision on February 16, 2021. Soon after he appointed a new American envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking.

From blacklisting and the consequent reversal, the new American administration outlined its approach to Yemen. It focused on delivering humanitarian aid to the people, urged the international community to assume its duties and repeatedly demanded a return to the negotiations table and establishing a ceasefire between Yemeni parties.

In describing the approach to Yemen, Lenderking has frequently said the "devil is in the details". He has so far visited the region 15 times during which he met with Yemeni and Saudi government officials, "yesterday's terrorists" the Houthis, and several officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council.

At the beginning of his mission, the envoy focused on reaching a ceasefire between the warring parties. He offered suggestions based on the initiative of the United Nations and its former envoy Martin Griffiths. He also suggested he would pursue further rapprochement with the Houthis if they met international demands and returned to the negotiations table and implemented a ceasefire. The Houthis' response to these efforts, however, "disappointed" Lenderking and the conflict escalated.

The US describes the crisis in Yemen as the world's worst humanitarian disaster amid massive poverty, famine, the COVID-19 outbreak and the Houthis' manipulation of fuel and food prices, as attested to by several observers and Lenderking himself before the Congress.

Soon after, Lenderking shifted his approach from his extreme keenness on reaching a ceasefire - as the battle for Marib intensified - to attempting to garner international support to pressure the Houthis. At one point, the envoy broke his silence and declared that Marib will not fall in Houthi hands. "It's not falling now, and it's not going to fall anytime in the foreseeable future," he added. His statement was interpreted as American support to the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led Arab coalition in the battle for the northern province.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat in October, Lenderking again spoke of possible sanctions and of adding members of the militias back on the sanctions list. He stressed that Washington is committed to resolving the crisis in Yemen through imposing security and peace in a turbulent region. It is committed to defending some 70,000 Americans residing in Saudi Arabia, which is a frequent target of Houthi missiles and drones.

In 2021, the US seized three arms shipments that were headed to the Houthis from Iran. The first capture took place in early February, the second in May and the third in December. It blacklisted four Houthi leaders, as well as entities connected to them and involved in providing them with funds so they can continue their combat operations.

Even though Lenderking has been "unlucky" so far in persuading the Houthis to agree to a ceasefire and return to the political negotiations table, the State Department had outlined to Asharq Al-Awsat the envoy's three priorities in Yemen. The first focuses on tackling the immediate humanitarian and economic priorities, restarting the political process and benefitting from the unprecedented international consensus.

It has grown increasingly clear that the American administration policy towards Yemen is changing. More and more critical statements are coming out from the White House, State Department and Pentagon. Several Congressional leaderships, especially among the Democrats, have also voted with a majority in favor of selling American defense weapons to Saudi Arabia so it can confront Houthi attacks.

Observers believe that the call to the negotiations table and for a ceasefire and laying down of arms will be among Washington's declared messages on Yemen this year. However, several Yemeni and non-Yemeni voices have urged the need to take a stronger approach with the Houthis and that they should not be lenient with them as Iran's nuclear negotiations continue in Vienna.

David Schenker, the former Assistant Secretary for Near East Affairs, said in November that "Yemen is yet another problem from hell for the Biden administration."



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.