How Did Washington Deal with the Yemeni Crisis in 2021?

Twenty-eight days separated the policies of US presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden in dealing with the crisis in Yemen.

The former had on the final day of his administration, January 20, 2021, blacklisted the Iran-backed Houthi militias, while Biden was quick to reverse the decision on February 16, 2021. Soon after he appointed a new American envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking.

From blacklisting and the consequent reversal, the new American administration outlined its approach to Yemen. It focused on delivering humanitarian aid to the people, urged the international community to assume its duties and repeatedly demanded a return to the negotiations table and establishing a ceasefire between Yemeni parties.

In describing the approach to Yemen, Lenderking has frequently said the "devil is in the details". He has so far visited the region 15 times during which he met with Yemeni and Saudi government officials, "yesterday's terrorists" the Houthis, and several officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council.

At the beginning of his mission, the envoy focused on reaching a ceasefire between the warring parties. He offered suggestions based on the initiative of the United Nations and its former envoy Martin Griffiths. He also suggested he would pursue further rapprochement with the Houthis if they met international demands and returned to the negotiations table and implemented a ceasefire. The Houthis' response to these efforts, however, "disappointed" Lenderking and the conflict escalated.

The US describes the crisis in Yemen as the world's worst humanitarian disaster amid massive poverty, famine, the COVID-19 outbreak and the Houthis' manipulation of fuel and food prices, as attested to by several observers and Lenderking himself before the Congress.

Soon after, Lenderking shifted his approach from his extreme keenness on reaching a ceasefire - as the battle for Marib intensified - to attempting to garner international support to pressure the Houthis. At one point, the envoy broke his silence and declared that Marib will not fall in Houthi hands. "It's not falling now, and it's not going to fall anytime in the foreseeable future," he added. His statement was interpreted as American support to the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led Arab coalition in the battle for the northern province.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat in October, Lenderking again spoke of possible sanctions and of adding members of the militias back on the sanctions list. He stressed that Washington is committed to resolving the crisis in Yemen through imposing security and peace in a turbulent region. It is committed to defending some 70,000 Americans residing in Saudi Arabia, which is a frequent target of Houthi missiles and drones.

In 2021, the US seized three arms shipments that were headed to the Houthis from Iran. The first capture took place in early February, the second in May and the third in December. It blacklisted four Houthi leaders, as well as entities connected to them and involved in providing them with funds so they can continue their combat operations.

Even though Lenderking has been "unlucky" so far in persuading the Houthis to agree to a ceasefire and return to the political negotiations table, the State Department had outlined to Asharq Al-Awsat the envoy's three priorities in Yemen. The first focuses on tackling the immediate humanitarian and economic priorities, restarting the political process and benefitting from the unprecedented international consensus.

It has grown increasingly clear that the American administration policy towards Yemen is changing. More and more critical statements are coming out from the White House, State Department and Pentagon. Several Congressional leaderships, especially among the Democrats, have also voted with a majority in favor of selling American defense weapons to Saudi Arabia so it can confront Houthi attacks.

Observers believe that the call to the negotiations table and for a ceasefire and laying down of arms will be among Washington's declared messages on Yemen this year. However, several Yemeni and non-Yemeni voices have urged the need to take a stronger approach with the Houthis and that they should not be lenient with them as Iran's nuclear negotiations continue in Vienna.

David Schenker, the former Assistant Secretary for Near East Affairs, said in November that "Yemen is yet another problem from hell for the Biden administration."

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.

How Did Washington Deal with the Yemeni Crisis in 2021?