Egypt Reiterates Call for a Legally-binding Agreement on GERD

Satellite image of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (AFP)
Satellite image of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (AFP)
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Egypt Reiterates Call for a Legally-binding Agreement on GERD

Satellite image of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (AFP)
Satellite image of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (AFP)

Egypt said that it is cautiously monitoring the steps Ethiopia is taking on the mega-dam it is building on the Blue Nile, warning against “harming its water interests.”

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly reiterated his country’s demand that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan reach a legally-binding agreement to fill and operate the dam.

The dispute was sparked in 2011 when Addis Ababa began constructing the mega dam on the Blue Nile.

Egypt and 10 other downstream countries share the Nile basin, yet more than 85 percent of its share comes from the Blue Nile tributary in Ethiopia.

For nearly a decade, the African Union-sponsored talks between Cairo, Addis Ababa and Khartoum over its operation and filling have faltered.

According to official statements, Ethiopia prepares to celebrate the operation of its first tribune to produce 700 megawatts of electricity through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Observers said this step has a “political significance” rather than its actual return, as it represents an Ethiopian approach to taking “unilateral” steps.

In response to a question on the extent of the damage caused by Ethiopia’s move to Egypt, Madbouly said his country is following the issue via all possible diplomatic and political means.

In remarks to BBC, the Premier affirmed that Egypt is not against development anywhere in the Nile basin but will not accept actions taken by Ethiopia that could restrict its access to the Nile’s water.

“We must hold talks to reach an agreement that will benefit our peoples,” he said, noting that it is not in the interest of the three countries to have a dispute over a natural resource.

In mid-September, the UN Security Council called on the three countries to resume negotiations under the auspices of the AU, stressing the need to reach a “binding agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD” within a reasonable timetable.



US Sends Beirut ‘Warning’ and ‘Incentive’ Over Hezbollah Arms

US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)
US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)
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US Sends Beirut ‘Warning’ and ‘Incentive’ Over Hezbollah Arms

US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)
US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)

US special envoy Tom Barrack delivered a dual message of “incentive” and “warning” to the Lebanese capital this week, urging swift action on the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons.

“You have Israel on one side, you have Iran on the other, and now you have Syria manifesting itself so quickly that if Lebanon doesn’t move, it’s going to be Bilad Al Sham again,” he said, using the historical name for the Syria region.

The remarks sparked alarm within Lebanon’s political establishment, with some interpreting the comments as a blunt warning of “existential danger.”

Government sources told Asharq al-Awsat that Barrack, who also serves as Washington’s ambassador to Türkiye and was previously tasked with Syria policy, appears to be approaching the Lebanon and Syria files through a unified lens.

“Barrack believes that Lebanon should follow the same diplomatic path as Syria,” one official said, referring to Damascus' recent re-engagement with regional and international actors. “But he also understands Lebanon’s complex political terrain.”

Barrack’s comments about Lebanon potentially “returning to Bilad Al Sham” provoked criticism across the political spectrum, prompting him to clarify his position in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

“My comments yesterday praised Syria’s impressive strides, not a threat to Lebanon,” wrote Barrack.

“I observed the reality that Syria is moving at light speed to seize the historic opportunity presented by President Donald Trump lifting of sanctions: investment from Türkiye and the Gulf, diplomatic outreach to neighboring countries, and a clear vision for the future,” he added.

He said Syria’s leadership is “seeking coexistence and shared prosperity with Lebanon based on sovereign equality,” and stressed that the United States supports a bilateral relationship that promotes “peace, prosperity, and mutual respect” between the two nations.

“I can assure that Syria’s leaders only want co-existence and mutual prosperity with Lebanon, and the United States is committed to supporting that relationship between two equal and sovereign neighbors enjoying peace and prosperity,” said Barrack.

Barrack, in the context of disarming Hezbollah, had stated that a successful approach requires a combination of "carrots and sticks". This means using both positive incentives (carrots) and negative consequences (sticks) to achieve the desired outcome.

Barrack’s recent warning to Lebanon reflects the “stick” Washington is wielding, while his unprecedented acknowledgment of Hezbollah’s dual structure signals the “carrot” being offered.

“This is the first time a US official publicly distinguishes between Hezbollah’s political and military wings,” one source told Asharq al-Awsat.

“It’s a message of inducement aimed directly at Hezbollah, despite the fact that Washington has long treated both branches as inseparable and placed them under the same sanctions regime,” they explained.

In remarks to the press, Barrack reiterated the US designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, but added nuance rarely heard from senior American officials.