AFRICOM: Al-Qaeda, ISIS Unity Efforts Threaten Lake Chad Basin

AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)
AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)
TT

AFRICOM: Al-Qaeda, ISIS Unity Efforts Threaten Lake Chad Basin

AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)
AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)

Last year, the US withdrawal from wars in Somalia and Afghanistan turned attention to other theaters of conflicts around the world to see if they, in turn, would witness similar US regression. Such a scenario poses risks threatening the fall of regimes and the growth of the influence of extremist movements.

The withdrawal of US forces from Somalia in early 2021 prompted an escalation of attacks by Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s branch of in the Horn of Africa. The attacks were met by Somali government forces weakened by inner conflict.

In Afghanistan, the picture was clearer and more decisive.

Shortly after the US pulled out in August, the Kabul government fell and was replaced by the Taliban.

Such a scenario can be repeated in other areas from which the Americans decide to withdraw, especially in the African continent, where many countries are witnessing political conflicts and civil wars.

To date, the US remains engaged through its military command in Africa (AFRICOM) as part of Washington’s efforts to counter Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Sahel countries.

Americans have also warned Africans of the “risks” of using mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group, which are now widespread in many African countries, including Mali and Libya.

The US relationship with Sudan, which witnessed remarkable heat during 2020, seems to have turned cold considering the conflict between the military and civil components of the Sudanese government.

In 2021, Tunisia was a focus of US military activity in North Africa.

France has led efforts to confront militants in Mali since 2012, but it has failed in eliminating them despite the support it receives from several countries led by the US.

AFRICOM Spokeswoman told Asharq Al-Awsat that they are aware of reports that Mali may have hired the services of a Russian-backed special military group known as the Wagner Group.

"If we take into account the record of (the Wagner Group), it is clear that any role played by the forces of this group supported by Russia will most likely worsen the delicate and unstable conditions in Mali, and complicate the international response aimed at supporting the transitional government,” she explained.

The US Department of Defense suspended security cooperation and military training for the Malian armed forces following the August 2020 coup.

She noted that they work to encourage the restoration of security and safety for the Malian people and to encourage a successful transition towards legitimate and constitutional governance in Mali.

ISIS and Al-Qaeda have suffered two strong losses in Nigeria during the past year.

Abubakar Shekau, leader of the Boko Haram group, loyal to Al-Qaeda, was killed in May. He blew himself up after his ISIS rivals surrounded him.

However, ISIS did not benefit much from this setback for its opponents as its leader Abu Musab al-Barnawi was also killed later in October.

It is not entirely clear how relations will manifest in the future between these two competing terror organizations and whether the conflict between them will continue. There is a possibility that they will unite their ranks against the Nigerian government.

AFRICOM is aware of the reported death of the two leaders, Shekau and al-Barnawi.

“As troubling as it may be, it is difficult to predict how these two groups will bring their fighters and capabilities together into a more coherent terrorist effort,” warned the command’s spokeswoman.

She explained that a united effort by these two groups could dramatically destabilize the Lake Chad Basin region if there is no substantive and coordinated multinational intervention.

The developing situation in the eastern Sahel region, in addition to the continued expansion of the al-Qaeda affiliate, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, towards the western and central Sahel region, should be a cause for increasing international concern.

According to the spokeswoman, no country alone can solve the problems associated with terrorism.

“We continue to monitor the situation and continue to support our African and international partners who are fighting on the frontlines against violent extremism.”



Iraq’s Displaced Kurds Hope to Return Home after Türkiye's Kurdish Militants Declare a Ceasefire

 Barchi village is seen around sunset time in Dahuk, Iraq, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025. (AP)
Barchi village is seen around sunset time in Dahuk, Iraq, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025. (AP)
TT

Iraq’s Displaced Kurds Hope to Return Home after Türkiye's Kurdish Militants Declare a Ceasefire

 Barchi village is seen around sunset time in Dahuk, Iraq, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025. (AP)
Barchi village is seen around sunset time in Dahuk, Iraq, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025. (AP)

Iraqi Kurdish villagers, displaced by fighting between Turkish forces and Kurdish militants that has played out for years in northern Iraq, are finally allowing themselves to hope they will soon be able to go home.

Their hopes were raised after the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, on Saturday declared a ceasefire in the 40-year insurgency against the Turkish government, answering a call to disarm from earlier in the week by the group's leader, Abdullah Ocalan, imprisoned in Türkiye since 1999.

The truce — if implemented — could not only be a turning point in neighboring Türkiye but could also bring much needed stability to the volatile region spanning the border between the two countries.

In northern Iraq, Turkish forces have repeatedly launched blistering offensives over the past years, pummeling PKK fighters who have been hiding out in sanctuaries in Iraq's northern semi-autonomous Kurdish region, and have set up bases in the area. Scores of villages have been completely emptied of their residents.

A home left decades ago Adil Tahir Qadir fled his village of Barchi, on Mount Matin in 1988, when Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein launched a brutal campaign against the area's Kurdish population.

He now lives in a newly built village — also named Barchi, after the old one that was abandoned — about 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) away, south of the mountain.

He used to go back to the old village every now and then to farm his land. But that stopped in 2015 when Turkish forces moved in and set up camp there in the fight against PKK, hitting the group with wave after wave of airstrikes.

Iraqi Kurdish farmers and their lands became collateral damage. The Turkish airstrikes and ground incursions targeting PKK positions displaced thousands of Iraqi Kurdish civilians, cutting off many from their land.

"Because of Turkish bombing, all of our farmlands and trees were burned," Qadir said.

If peace comes, he will go back right away, he says. "We wish it will work so we can return."

Fighting emptied out villages in Iraq

In the border area of Amedi in Iraq's Dohuk province — once a thriving agricultural community — around 200 villages had been emptied of their residents by the fighting, according to a 2020 study by the regional Iraqi Kurdish government.

Small havens remained safe, like the new Barchi, with only about 150 houses and where villagers rely on sesame, walnuts and rice farming. But as the fighting dragged on, the conflict grew ever closer.

"There are many Turkish bases around this area," said Salih Shino, who was also displaced to the new Barchi from Mount Matin.

"The bombings start every afternoon and intensify through the night," he said. "The bombs fall very close ... we can’t walk around at all."

Airstrikes have hit Barchi's water well and bombs have fallen near the village school, he said.

Najib Khalid Rashid, from the nearby village of Belava, says he also lives in fear. There are near-daily salvos of bombings, sometimes 40-50 times, that strike in surrounding areas.

"We can't even take our sheep to graze or farm our lands in peace," he said.

Ties to Kurdish brethren in Türkiye

Iraqi Kurdish villagers avoid talking about their views on the Kurdish insurgency in Türkiye and specifically the PKK, which has deep roots in the area. Türkiye and its Western allies, including the United States, consider the PKK a terrorist organization.

Still, Rashid went so far as to call for all Kurdish factions to put aside their differences and come together in the peace process.

"If there’s no unity, we will not achieve any results," he said.

Ahmad Saadullah, in the village of Guharze, recalled a time when the region was economically self-sufficient.

"We used to live off our farming, livestock, and agriculture," he said. "Back in the 1970s, all the hills on this mountain were full of vines and fig farms. We grew wheat, sesame, and rice. We ate everything from our farms."

Over the past years, cut off from their farmland, the locals have been dependent on government aid and "unstable, seasonal jobs," he said. "Today, we live with warplanes, drones, and bombings."

Farooq Safar, another Guharze resident, recalled a drone strike that hit in his back yard a few months ago.

"It was late afternoon, we were having dinner, and suddenly all our windows exploded," he said. "The whole village shook. We were lucky to survive."

Like others, Safar's hopes are sprinkled with skepticism — ceasefire attempts have failed in the past, he says, remembering similar peace pushes in 1993 and 2015.

"We hope this time will be different," he said.