Iran's Khamenei Bars Sadr's Rivals in Iraq from Joining his Coalition

Iraqi lawmakers attending the inaugural session of the parliament in Baghdad, January 9 2022. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Press Office, AFP)
Iraqi lawmakers attending the inaugural session of the parliament in Baghdad, January 9 2022. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Press Office, AFP)
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Iran's Khamenei Bars Sadr's Rivals in Iraq from Joining his Coalition

Iraqi lawmakers attending the inaugural session of the parliament in Baghdad, January 9 2022. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Press Office, AFP)
Iraqi lawmakers attending the inaugural session of the parliament in Baghdad, January 9 2022. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Press Office, AFP)

Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei has joined efforts to address the crisis between Iraq's Sadrist movement leader, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and the pro-Tehran Coordination Framework as they grapple to form a new government.

Informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Khamenei has forced the Coordination Framework to remain united, barring its members, specifically Hadi al-Ameri's Fatah alliance, from joining the rival Sadrist camp.

It was revealed that late last month leaders of the Framework had drafted a letter asking Khamenei to allow members of the alliance to join Sadr's coalition in spite of the reservations against him.

The letter was supposed to be sent by head of the State of Law coalition, led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, but the decision to send it was never taken.

Maliki, however, "leaked it from behind their backs" because he knew that Khamenei's response would put an end to any chance of striking an alliance between the Sadrists and the Fatah alliance.

The exchange of messages between the Framework and Khamenei reveals the extent of the role - or lack of it - played by Iran's Quds Forces commander Esmail Qaani in Iraq.

Contrary to his slain predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, Qaani appears to be playing the role of messenger between Tehran, Baghdad, Erbil and Najaf.

Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike near Baghdad airport in 2020, played a more influential role in Iraq than Qaani, and was largely able to keep Shiite parties united, in contrast to their current state of disarray.

Qaani met Sadr in Najaf on Tuesday in an effort to resolve the crisis.

The Sadrist leader tweeted after the talks: "Neither east, nor west... a government of national majority," in what observers said was as a sign that Qaani had failed to make a breakthrough.

Sadr, who emerged victorious in the October parliamentary elections, holds sway over the formation of the next Iraqi government.



Biden, Macron to Declare 60-Day Ceasefire between Hezbollah, Israel on Tuesday

 Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)
Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)
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Biden, Macron to Declare 60-Day Ceasefire between Hezbollah, Israel on Tuesday

 Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)
Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)

US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron will declare on Tuesday morning a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Asharq Al-Awsat learned from widely informed sources on Monday.

Washington has spoken of “cautious optimism” that the US proposal for a ceasefire could be a success. The proposal calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the area between the Blue Line and Litani River in a manner that can be verified. In return Israeli forces will withdraw from the regions they occupied since they carried out their limited invasion of Lebanon.

The discussions the US government had on the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire were positive and are headed in the right direction towards a deal, the White House said on Monday.

"We're close," said White House national security spokesperson John Kirby. "The discussions ... were constructive, and we believe that the trajectory of this is going in a very positive direction. But, yeah, nothing is done until everything is done." 

The relative positivity prevailed in spite of the ongoing wide-scale military operations between Israel and Hezbollah in the South and Israel’s air raids deep in Lebanese territory. Hezbollah has also fired rockets deep in Israel, reaching Tel Aviv.

Analysts have said the intense attacks suggest that both Israel and Hezbollah are trying to maximize their leverage as diplomats conduct what they hope is a final round of ceasefire talks, reported the New York Times on Monday.

The New York Times reported on Friday that the terms included a 60-day truce during which Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters pull back from border areas and the Lebanese Army and a United Nations peacekeeping force increase their presence in a buffer zone.

But officials have also warned that the two sides may not be able to finalize a deal, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced pressure from right-wing allies not to end the military campaign.

Israel’s hard-line national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, said in a social media post on Monday that the proposed deal would be a “historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.”

Observers meanwhile told Asharq Al-Awsat that all pending issues related to the US proposal have been resolved from the Lebanese side, while Israel has some lingering reservations.

Israeli officials said Netanyahu’s security Cabinet is set to convene on Tuesday to discuss the ceasefire proposal.

Two officials confirmed the Cabinet meeting is set for Tuesday, but they said it is still not clear whether the decision-making body will vote to approve the deal.

The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal deliberations.