Russia Systematically Trying to Stage ‘False Flag’ Attack, Warns Ukraine Ambassador to UK

Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, warned that Russia has been systematically trying to stage a false flag attack against Ukraine.

The former Minister of Foreign affairs added, in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, that his country is surrounded by Russian troops on five different fronts, and that Moscow is sending mixed messages about withdrawing its forces from the border with Ukraine.

Five fronts

As the world watched the massive build-up of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine, officials in Kyiv had their eye on four other fronts.

“In the east of Ukraine, where we have occupied territory, we have a touch line of 400 km that is within our territories. It draws a border between us and the occupied territories supported by Russians,” explained Prystaiko.

“There is also a new front in Belarus, recently opened to us,” where Russia holds military exercises. “This front line is much bigger, it is 1100 Km,” he explained.

“Then to the south, is Crimea where they enlarged their capacity to much more than 12.000 troops.” And to the West of Ukraine, in Moldova, Russian military contingent are stationed in the unrecognized republic of Transnistria.

“Ukraine is more or less surrounded” by Russian forces, the diplomat observed.

Mixed messages

Russia had announced, earlier this week, it was withdrawing some of its troops from the border it shares with Ukraine. However western officials said there was no evidence of withdrawal, and described the move as a “ruse”.

Prystaiko said that the message was not clear. “Russians are claiming that some of the 130.000 troops brought close to the borders for exercise are being pulled back. We have seen pictures of tanks on a bridge between Russia mainland and the Crimean Peninsula. But at the same time, we see more of them coming, new mobile bridges being built, and new hospitals being erected next to our borders. So the message is not clear.”

He added: “The last report from Russia is that the troops have to finish their exercises by February 20th. We have to see whether troops will be brought back to Siberia, or if they will stay in their current positions.”

False flag attacks

The US, UK and NATO have repeatedly warned of a possible “false-flag” attack that Russia could use to justify an invasion.

Such a move seems to be under way, according to western allies, as separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions announced the evacuation of civilians to Russia in what looks like an effort to paint Ukraine as the aggressor.

Prystaiko said Russia has “systematically been trying to stage (a false flag attack). For example, in Crimea, they claimed that they had to protect two million people against possible attacks from Ukrainians coming all the way from Kyiv to take over” back in 2014.

He continued: “If they want to stage something and feed it to the international media, they will. If they need a couple of pictures, they will use them.”

Strategic drills

Putin monitored on Saturday a sweeping exercise that involved multiple practice missile launches, in a new show of force as world leaders gathered at the Munich Security Conference.

The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK believes that “this particular message is rather addressed to the West, because Putin is trying to achieve different goals in different theaters.”

He explained: “One is the Ukraine, and that is an immediate attempt to put us back on the table and initiate the Minsk agreements on their conditions. Another one is focused on the West. By blackmailing us, they are trying to threaten the West into accepting certain concessions. Some of these concessions are unreasonable, unjustified, and unrealistic. Like asking for NATO to be rolled back to its 1997 line, and stripping off the newly joined members of any sort of defenses. They are asking for so much, hoping to get something.”

He continued: “I believe that these newest drills are directed at NATO.”

Avoiding panic

Earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the West not to create panic, amid warnings of an imminent Russian invasion.

“People ask why is Ukraine keeping calm. It is not because we are naïve,” explained Prystaiko. “We grew thick skin and became accustomed over the seven-and-a-half years, as 13,500 people lost their lives (in conflict with Russia), and we lost 7 percent of our territory, including Crimea that has a population of 2 million.”

“This is why understand the situation differently from Europeans.”

He added: “President Zelensky was asking our Western partners not to go public and to talk to us, and tell us about the dangers and challenges. And believe us, we understand the dangers. We were not stubborn.”

“We just believe that we are balancing the message within our society. We are preparing, our army is ready.”

Strengthening Ukraine’s defenses

The Ukrainian diplomat confirmed that his country was strengthening its defenses. He said: “We used to have 250,000 troops in the army until recently. We have now decided to bump it up by another hundred thousand. We also have 300,000 in the so-called territorial defense units. They are composed of people aiming to defend their own regions. They're not combatant units, but they can withstand the pressure of saboteurs and defend their small cities and towns.”

“We also have a reserve to which 1.6 million to 2 million people signed up. We also have 500,000 veterans who went through war in the past. This is considerable manpower. These people know how to fight. They've been doing it.”

However, Prystaiko noted that “we're missing equipment to provide them with. This is a huge investment, and we rely in some parts on our partners’ assistance.”

Military training

Commenting on the images that have been circulating of civilians receiving military training, the Ukrainian ambassador said: “This is not normal in a normal society. But is very much normal in Ukraine right now.”

That said, “we still want to preserve the normality within society,” he noted, adding: “Although unfortunately, society is preparing itself to withstand the pressure. We are realistic. Not everyone will be able to defend themselves. But if you come to the hunting shop, you will see that shelves are empty. There is nothing there, no cartridges, no tents, no uniforms. People are seriously buying non-perishable food, checking where the next bomb shelter is, and revamping them because they've never been in use since the Cold War.”

At the same time, and despite the fact that people are worrying they remain quite “calm, resilient and resolute”, he insisted.

Western support

When asked whether he thought enough was being done by western allies to support Ukraine, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs replied: “It is never enough, in the sense that our people are still suffering and are being shelled. So much more can be done.”

That said, he praised the UK’s “clear position” and its continuous efforts to support Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity.

“I'm quite happy that I am here in this particular capital,” he said. “So much is being done in terms of support, whether it be financial or political. Sometimes, it also includes military support, which is very important. The political message that (the UK is sending in its clear support of Ukraine) is opening up the doors for everybody else”.

NATO membership

In 2019, Ukraine adopted an amendment that enshrined the ultimate goal of joining Nato as a member in the country’s constitution.

Talking about Kyiv’s ambition to join the organization, ambassador Prystaiko said: “When Ukraine became independent, we started looking for ways of defending ourselves.”

He refuted Russia’s claims that NATO was “pulling Ukraine in,” and “encroaching on Russian borders,” noting: “Many nations are actually seeking NATO’s membership, it is not the other way around.”

He added: “We were trying to get into this club, but we are not yet allowed by its members. We are trying to flee Russian influence, and its model. We do not want to be threatening the rest of the world. This model is not attractive to us.”

“We are a big nation, our territory is in Europe, and we want to be Western-oriented. We are geographically, historically, and religiously there. The nation is very much united in this outlook.”

Despite not being a member, Ukraine is preparing itself through adopting the required reforms and taking part in exercises. However, the ambassador admitted that “at the end of the day, it will depend on the decision of NATO’s 30 members.”

Economic cost

Ukraine’s lost output between 2014 and 2020 attributable to the conflict with Russia totals US$ 280 billion, or up to US$ 40 billion a year, according to a recent study published by the Center for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).

Ambassador Prystaiko lamented that all these losses are coming in the way of his country’s economic recovery.

“We're spending around 6% of our GDP on our security at the moment. These amounts of money are needed in infrastructure and education, as any normal nation. But unfortunately, we have to pull more and more resources into our defense,” he said, adding: “This is very difficult and it's holding us back.”

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Ethan Goldrich has told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US does not plan to withdraw its forces from Syria.

The US is committed to “the partnership that we have with the local forces that we work with,” he said.

Here is the full text of the interview.

Question: Mr. Goldrich, thank you so much for taking the time to sit with us today. I know you are leaving your post soon. How do you assess the accomplishments and challenges remaining?

Answer: Thank you very much for the chance to talk with you today. I've been in this position for three years, and so at the end of three years, I can see that there's a lot that we accomplished and a lot that we have left to do. But at the beginning of a time I was here, we had just completed a review of our Syria policy, and we saw that we needed to focus on reducing suffering for the people in Syria. We needed to reduce violence. We needed to hold the regime accountable for things that are done and most importantly, from the US perspective, we needed to keep ISIS from reemerging as a threat to our country and to other countries. At the same time, we also realized that there wouldn't be a solution to the crisis until there was a political process under resolution 2254, so in each of these areas, we've seen both progress and challenges, but of course, on ISIS, we have prevented the reemergence of the threat from northeast Syria, and we've helped deal with people that needed to be repatriated out of the prisons, and we dealt with displaced people in al-Hol to reduce the numbers there. We helped provide for stabilization in those parts of Syria.

Question: I want to talk a little bit about the ISIS situation now that the US troops are still there, do you envision a timeline where they will be withdrawn? Because there were some reports in the press that there is a plan from the Biden administration to withdraw.

Answer: Yeah. So right now, our focus is on the mission that we have there to keep ISIS from reemerging. So I know there have been reports, but I want to make clear that we remain committed to the role that we play in that part of Syria, to the partnership that we have with the local forces that we work with, and to the need to prevent that threat from reemerging.

Question: So you can assure people who are saying that you might withdraw, that you are remaining for the time being?

Answer: Yes, and that we remain committed to this mission which needs to continue to be pursued.

Question: You also mentioned the importance of humanitarian aid. The US has been leading on this. Are you satisfied with where you are today on the humanitarian front in Syria?

Answer: We remain committed to the role that we play to provide for humanitarian assistance in Syria. Of the money that was pledged in Brussels, we pledged $593 million just this past spring, and we overall, since the beginning of the conflict, have provided $18 billion both to help the Syrians who are inside of Syria and to help the refugees who are in surrounding countries. And so we remain committed to providing that assistance, and we remain keenly aware that 90% of Syrians are living in poverty right now, and that there's been suffering there. We're doing everything we can to reduce the suffering, but I think where we would really like to be is where there's a larger solution to the whole crisis, so Syrian people someday will be able to provide again for themselves and not need this assistance.

Question: And that's a perfect key to my next question. Solution in Syria. you are aware that the countries in the region are opening up to Assad again, and you also have the EU signaling overture to the Syrian regime and Assad. How do you deal with that?

Answer: For the United States, our policy continues to be that we will not normalize with the regime in Syria until there's been authentic and enduring progress on the goals of resolution 2254, until the human rights of the Syrian people are respected and until they have the civil and human rights that they deserve. We know other countries have engaged with the regime. When those engagements happen, we don't support them, but we remind the countries that are engaged that they should be using their engagements to push forward on the shared international goals under 2254, and that whatever it is that they're doing should be for the sake of improving the situation of the Syrian people.

Question: Let's say that all of the countries decided to talk to Assad, aren’t you worried that the US will be alienated in the process?

Answer: The US will remain true to our own principles and our own policies and our own laws, and the path for the regime in Syria to change its relationship with us is very clear, if they change the behaviors that led to the laws that we have and to the policies that we have, if those behaviors change and the circumstances inside of Syria change, then it's possible to have a different kind of relationship, but that's where it has to start.

Question: My last question to you before you leave, if you have to pick one thing that you need to do in Syria today, what is it that you would like to see happening today?

Answer: So there are a number of things, I think that will always be left and that there are things that we will try to do, to try to make them happen. We want to hold people accountable in Syria for things that have happened. So even today, we observed something called the International Day for victims of enforced disappearances, there are people that are missing, and we're trying to draw attention to the need to account for the missing people. So our step today was to sanction a number of officials who were responsible for enforced disappearances, but we also created something called the independent institution for missing persons, and that helps the families, in the non-political way, get information on what's happened. So I'd like to see some peace for the families of the missing people. I'd like to see the beginning of a political process, there hasn't been a meeting of the constitutional committee in two years, and I think that's because the regime has not been cooperating in political process steps. So we need to change that situation. And I would, of course, like it's important to see the continuation of the things that we were talking about, so keeping ISIS from reemerging and maintaining assistance as necessary in the humanitarian sphere. So all these things, some of them are ongoing, and some of them remain to be achieved. But the Syrian people deserve all aspects of our policy to be fulfilled and for them to be able to return to a normal life.

Russia Systematically Trying to Stage ‘False Flag’ Attack, Warns Ukraine Ambassador to UK

Prystaiko told Asharq Al-Awsat Ukrainians are revamping cold-war era bomb shelters