Oil Surges, Equities Mostly Fall on Growing Ukraine Fears

Crude surged after world powers imposed fresh sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine Frederic J. BROWN AFP
Crude surged after world powers imposed fresh sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine Frederic J. BROWN AFP
TT

Oil Surges, Equities Mostly Fall on Growing Ukraine Fears

Crude surged after world powers imposed fresh sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine Frederic J. BROWN AFP
Crude surged after world powers imposed fresh sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine Frederic J. BROWN AFP

Oil prices and safe havens surged Monday while equities mostly fell and the ruble plunged after world powers imposed fresh sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, fanning fears about a possible global energy crisis that could further stoke inflation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to send troops across the border last week has sent shivers through trading floors as investors fret over a protracted war in the resource-rich region, AFP said.

Adding to the unease among investors was news that Putin had put his nuclear forces on a higher alert in reaction to the latest stiff measures.

Markets had rallied Friday as dealers assessed that the punishments imposed on Moscow were light enough to not hit its crucial oil exports -- Russia is the world's third-biggest producer -- at a time when supplies are thin and demand is surging.

But the picture was changed at the weekend, when the United States and European Union said they would exclude some Russian banks from the international bank payments system SWIFT and personally targeted Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

They also banned all transactions with Russia's central bank, sending the ruble crashing, with Bloomberg saying it was indicated to be nearly 30 percent down in offshore trading Monday.

"Removing some Russian banks from SWIFT could result in a disruption of oil supplies as buyers and sellers try to figure out how to navigate the new rules," Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, noted.

Crude surged, with WTI climbing more than six percent to close in on the $100 mark, while Brent bounced more than five percent to climb back above that level after slipping on Friday.

Other commodities rallied, with wheat up eight percent, while aluminum and nickel were also sharply higher.

Traders will be closely watching a meeting this week of OPEC and other major producers led by Russia, where they will discuss plans for further output.

The group had agreed previously to increase production gradually each month, but the Ukraine crisis could throw those plans into disarray.

Gold and the yen, go-to assets in times of uncertainty, rose, while the dollar was up against all other currencies.

The euro was under pressure owing to Europe's reliance on Russian energy.

The surge in prices is adding to worries about inflation, which is running at a 40-year high in the United States, with central banks already fighting an uphill battle to get it under control.

The conflict is "likely to boost energy prices significantly, resulting in immediate inflationary effects and a large drag on global growth," Silvia Dall'Angelo, senior economist at Federated Hermes, wrote in a note.

"It's fair to say that the crisis increases the room for central banks' policy mistakes."

On equity markets Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore and Bangkok were in negative territory, though there were some gains in Sydney, Manila and Wellington.

- Key figures around 0450 GMT -
West Texas Intermediate: UP 6.3 percent at $97.33 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 5.2 percent at $103.06 per barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.2 percent at 26,423.94

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.4 percent at 22,452.16 (break)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,446.44 (break)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1145 from $1.1271 late Friday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3344 from $1.3410

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.52 pence from 84.04 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 115.50 yen from 115.56 yen

New York - Dow: UP 2.5 percent at 34,058.75 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 3.9 percent at 7,489.46 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
TT

Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
TT

IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.