Truce Holds in Syria's Idlib as Turkey Bolsters its Military Posts

The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)
The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)
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Truce Holds in Syria's Idlib as Turkey Bolsters its Military Posts

The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)
The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)

Saturday marked two years since the signing of the truce agreement between Turkey and Russia over Syria's northwestern Idlib province and some regions of the Hama, Aleppo and Latakia provinces.

The agreement allowed Turkey to bolster its military positions along over 78 posts. It has also deployed hundreds of heavy armored vehicles and thousands of troops.

In spite of the agreement, the past two years have witnessed violations of the truce in opposition-held regions by the regime and the Russian air force. Hundreds of innocent civilians were killed in the attacks and thousands of other fled to the Jabal al-Zawiya area in southern Idlib.

On March 5, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a ceasefire in Idlib to contain the fighting between the opposition and regime forces after the latter had carried out a wide-scale operation, backed by Russia, against Idlib.

The fighting at the time led to the displacement of nearly a million people from Idlib and the death of dozens. Turkey was forced to bring in more troops to contain the situation.

The de-escalation regions, as they are known, have witnessed relative calm in recent weeks. Russian jets rarely fly over the areas. The calm is welcome after two years of air strikes and attacks by the regime and its allied militias against the opposition. The attacks targeted vital facilities, including water pumping stations, medical centers and displacement camps.

Over 270 people, including 120 women and children, were killed in the unrest. Four massacres were reported in the Maarat Masrin and Ariha regions and the villages of Mashoun, Balshoun and Balyoun in Jabal al-Zawiya.

Idlib has in recent weeks witnessed military operations by the US-led international coalition fighting ISIS. Drone attacks targeted members of various extremist factions, including the Hurras al-Din group. Another notable attack led to the killing of ISIS leader Abdullah Qardash in Atmeh in northern Idlib in early February.

Amid the calm, the economy has slowly started to pick up. Administrations in Idlib have started to operate using the Turkish lira instead of the plummeting Syrian pound, demonstrating the extent of Ankara's influence.

The Syrian-Turkish border in Idlib has become the province's window to the world. Turkish commercial goods and food, new and used European and Asian cars and oil derivatives are all brought in from across the border into Idlib.

The local salvation government has recently approved several development and economic projects, including the establishment of a major industrial zone in Sarmada. Main highways have been widened between cities and operations at several vital facilities have resumed, providing new job opportunities for Syrians.



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.