Three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and products may not find their way to market beginning in April in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, as sanctions bite and buyers hold off.
"Of the cutback, we see a reduction in total exports of 2.5 million bpd, of which crude accounts for 1.5 million bpd and products 1 million bpd," the IEA said in its monthly oil report.
Additionally, it projected lower Russian domestic demand for oil products.
"These losses could deepen should bans or public censure accelerate," the Paris-based agency said.
Russia has come under severe sanctions over its war on Ukraine.
The IEA lowered its forecast for world oil demand for the second to fourth quarters of 2022 by 1.3 million bpd noting rising commodity prices and sanctions on Russia "are expected to appreciably depress global economic growth" and impact inflation.
For the full year it cut its growth forecast by 950,000 bpd to 2.1 million bpd for an average of 99.7 million bpd. That would mean a third year of demand below pre-pandemic levels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will affect the entire global economy by slowing growth and jacking up inflation, and could fundamentally reshape the global economic order in the longer term.
Beyond the human suffering and historic refugee flows, the war is boosting prices for food and energy, fueling inflation and eroding the value of incomes, while disrupting trade, supply chains and remittances in countries neighboring Ukraine, the IMF said in a post on its website.