Regime, Opposition Raise Combat Readiness in N. Syria amid Russia's Preoccupation in Ukraine

Syrian artist Aziz al-Asmar paints a mural on the wall of a destroyed building in Idlib, Syria, 11 April 2022. (EPA)
Syrian artist Aziz al-Asmar paints a mural on the wall of a destroyed building in Idlib, Syria, 11 April 2022. (EPA)
TT

Regime, Opposition Raise Combat Readiness in N. Syria amid Russia's Preoccupation in Ukraine

Syrian artist Aziz al-Asmar paints a mural on the wall of a destroyed building in Idlib, Syria, 11 April 2022. (EPA)
Syrian artist Aziz al-Asmar paints a mural on the wall of a destroyed building in Idlib, Syria, 11 April 2022. (EPA)

Syrian armed opposition factions are stepping up military training on various types of weapons and combat with the aim of raising their level of offensive and defensive combat readiness, opposition military sources revealed.

Opposition fighters are training at bootcamps in the Idlib region and the countryside of Aleppo in northwest Syria.

Syrian regime forces have also staged similar military exercises in camps close to the contact lines in Idlib’s countryside. Regime fighters also trained on carrying out airdrops.

“As Russians boost their training of regime forces near contact lines, opposition factions correspondingly step up their training of existing and newly drafted fighters,” Col. Mustafa Bakour, a defected regime officer and leader of the “Jaysh al-Izza” faction told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Bakour revealed that the Russians were training regime soldiers on disembarking from helicopters. He said that such exercises suggest that they are preparing for a new military offensive.

“The current situation of cautious calm that has prevailed for two years on the frontlines and the cessation of military operations may at any moment turn into military confrontations between the opposition factions and the regime forces, which may lead to a change in the map of the areas of control,” he explained.

“All factions have repeatedly asserted their readiness to repel any aggression against the liberated areas in northern Syria by the Assad regime, Russians and Iranians,” he added.

Syrian activists reported on military changes in the positioning and deployment of regime forces and Iranian militias in several Syrian regions.

The highlight of these changes is the alteration of regime positions near contact lines with the opposition factions. It is believed that the regime’s position change comes in anticipation of the decline of the Russian role in Syria due to its preoccupation with the Ukrainian war.



Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
TT

Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)

Already suffering from a prolonged conflict as a result of the Houthi coup against the legitimate authority, Yemen is facing mounting risks brought on by climate change, the World Bank warned on Thursday.
Many populations are facing threats from climate change, such as extreme heat, drought, and floods, the WB said in its newly released Yemen Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR).
Stephane Guimbert, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti said that Yemen is facing an unprecedented convergence of crises — conflict, climate change, and poverty.
He called for immediate and decisive action on climate resilience, a matter of survival for millions of Yemenis.
“By investing in water security, climate-smart agriculture, and renewable energy, Yemen can safeguard human capital, build resilience and lay the foundations for a path to sustainable recovery,” he said.
The WB report said half of Yemenis are already exposed to at least one climate hazard — extreme heat, drought, or flooding — with compounding effects on food insecurity and poverty.
These risks, it showed, are expected to intensify without immediate action and Yemen’s annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage.
Navigating Challenges
Despite these challenges, the CCDR identifies strategic opportunities to strengthen resilience, improve food and water security, and unlock sustainable growth, the WB report noted.
For example, it said, targeted investments in water storage and groundwater management, coupled with adaptive agriculture techniques could lead to productivity gains of up to 13.5% in crop production under optimistic climate scenarios for the period of 2041 to 2050.
The report also spoke about risks to the fisheries sector, considered as a critical source of livelihood for many Yemenis.
Its projections indicate a potential decline of up to 23% in fish stocks due to rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems.

The WB report also said that climate change exacerbates existing health challenges in Yemen, leading to increased healthcare costs and strain on already fragile health systems.
“It is projected that climate-related health issues could cost the country over $5 billion in excess health costs by 2050,” it noted.
“Addressing these challenges requires integrating climate resilience into public health planning, with a focus on vulnerable groups such as women and children.”
Concerning infrastructure, the report said urban areas and critical infrastructure are especially vulnerable, and without adaptation measures, economic shocks will disproportionately affect already fragile communities.
As for the private sector, it has a critical role to play in addressing Yemen’s pressing development challenges, said Khawaja Aftab Ahmed, IFC’s Regional Director for the Middle East.
“Harnessing its potential through innovative financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments and creating a conducive investment climate can help mobilize the climate-focused funding the country urgently needs to build a greener and more resilient future,” he said.
The WB report also said that Yemen also has immense potential for renewable energy, which could serve as a key component of its climate response and recovery.
It showed that harnessing renewable energy resources not only offers a pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuels but also enables the creation of a more resilient power infrastructure.
“This will be essential in supporting vital services such as healthcare, water supply, and food distribution, particularly in conflict-affected areas,” it said.
Global Coordination
The World Bank highlighted the significant commitments and coordination from the international community to support Yemen in coping with climate shocks and building broader resilience.
It said securing sustainable peace will be required to unlock the financing and take the action needed to build long-term resilience to climate change.
The CCDR then underscored the importance of flexible, risk-informed decision-making to adapt climate actions to Yemen's uncertain political landscape.
Under a “Peace and Prosperity” scenario, it said, a higher level of adaptation can be implemented, yielding greater economic and social benefits.
Yemeni Minister of Water and Environment, Tawfiq Al-Sharjabi, stressed the importance of integrating climate action into development strategies and adapting to climate fluctuations.
The minister was speaking at a special session to discuss the WB report on the sidelines of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
He said the report represents a significant contribution for Yemen in addressing climate change and will facilitate access to various climate financing options amid the structural and technical fragility faced by institutions due to the war.
The report, Al-Sharjabi added, aligns closely with Yemen's urgent priorities, particularly in the areas of water and food security, enhancing livelihoods, and promoting area-based climate adaptation approaches.