Tunisian President Seizes Control of Electoral Commission

Tunisian then-presidential candidate Kais Saied speaks during an interview with Reuters in Tunis, Tunisia September 17, 2019. (Reuters)
Tunisian then-presidential candidate Kais Saied speaks during an interview with Reuters in Tunis, Tunisia September 17, 2019. (Reuters)
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Tunisian President Seizes Control of Electoral Commission

Tunisian then-presidential candidate Kais Saied speaks during an interview with Reuters in Tunis, Tunisia September 17, 2019. (Reuters)
Tunisian then-presidential candidate Kais Saied speaks during an interview with Reuters in Tunis, Tunisia September 17, 2019. (Reuters)

Tunisia's president seized control of the country's election commission on Friday, saying he would replace most of its members in a move that will entrench his one-man rule and cast doubt on electoral integrity.

The commission head Nabil Baffoun told Reuters that President Kais Saied's decree was a blow to the democratic gains of the country's 2011 revolution and meant the body was no longer independent.

"It has become the president's commission," he said.

President Kais Saied has already dismissed parliament and taken control of the judiciary after assuming executive authority last summer and saying he could rule by decree in moves his opponents denounce as a coup.

Saied, who says his actions were both legal and needed to save Tunisia from a crisis, is rewriting the democratic constitution introduced after the 2011 revolution and says he will put it to a referendum in July.

Tunisia's biggest political party, the Islamist Ennahda which has opposed Saied's moves since last summer, said it would hold consultations with other parties on how to respond.

"Any elections will lose all credibility with a body appointed by the president," said Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi, speaker of the parliament which Saied said he was dissolving earlier this month.

In his decree on Friday Saied said he would select three of the existing nine members of the electoral commission to stay on, serving in a new seven-member panel with three judges and an information technology specialist. He would name the commission head himself.

The judges would be selected by the supreme judicial council, a body he also unilaterally replaced this year in a move seen as undermining the independence of the judiciary.

Commission head Baffoun had angered Saied by criticizing his plans to hold a referendum and a later parliamentary election, saying such votes could only happen within the framework of the existing constitution.

This week, referring to Saied's expected announcements, Baffoun said the president was not allowed to change the membership of the electoral commission or to rewrite electoral laws by decree.

Although Saied's seizure of powers has angered most of Tunisia's political establishment, it was initially very popular in a country where many people were frustrated by economic stagnation and governmental paralysis.

However, while Saied has focused on restructuring Tunisian politics, a looming economic crisis threatens to unravel his plans, as the government struggles to finance its 2022 deficit and repay debts.

Talks between Tunisian negotiators and the International Monetary Fund for a rescue package resumed in the United States this week.

Tunisia's main Western donors have urged Saied to return to a democratic, constitutional path.



Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
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Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.