A Western-Arab Visit to ‘Forgotten Syria’

Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account
Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account
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A Western-Arab Visit to ‘Forgotten Syria’

Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account
Western and Arab envoys on Syria. Photo: Brigitte Curmi's Twitter account

Ukraine was once again present at the closed meeting of Western and Arab envoys on Syria. But this time, the attendees discussed the means to deal with a politically “forgotten” Middle Eastern Arab state, mired in its economic crisis and geographical divisions, in light of the Russian-Western fiery clash over the land of an eastern European country and its sea and land neighborhoods.

In theory, the Paris meeting, which was called for by French Envoy Brigitte Curmi, was intended to match the positions of Arab and foreign countries, which are involved in varying degrees and with “different weapons” in Syria.

In fact, understanding the stances of these countries, as well as their public and implicit statements and slogans, was necessary, two months after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, with Washington’s insistence on assuming a “leading role” in the Syrian file, and ahead of the international donors’ conference in Brussels on May 10, which was initially focused on raising funds for millions of Syrians, back when their crisis prevailed over the international agenda.

On the eve of the meeting, the attendees held bilateral and tripartite consultations, before convening a separate expanded session and another with the participation of UN envoy Geir Pedersen. Many discussions and ideas were said and reiterated in previous rounds by the participants themselves, or by their predecessors during the decade of the Syrian crisis.

What’s new, however, were some of the issues that imposed themselves on the agenda: The first shock was the tragedy of the Tadamon neighborhood massacre in southern Damascus, which was revealed by The Guardian. The newspaper published documented photos of the execution of dozens of civilians in this Syrian quarter in 2013. At the meeting, US envoy Ethan Goldrich and a number of his European counterparts stressed the importance of “accountability for crimes” and adherence to the Caesar Act approved by the US Congress.

The “proponents of normalization” with Damascus were also reminded of the importance to avoid “Arab normalization with the regime,” in addition to the Westerners’ reference to the role played by national courts in Europe in prosecuting “war criminals.”

The second case pertained to the Ukrainian war. Concern prevailed over the Western-Russian division there, which would impede the extension of the international mechanism for cross-border humanitarian aid in July.

The Russian side has indeed pointed to this matter. In fact, the US-Russian dialogue, which was launched after the summit of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden in Geneva in mid-June, and during which three sessions focused on the humanitarian file, was completely frozen after the Ukrainian war. What’s left is only an accord on the need to “prevent conflict” between the US and Russian armies between the east and west of the Euphrates.

In the Paris meeting, it was noticeable that Western countries “see the Syrian regime as an extension of Russia, especially after Damascus fully adopted Moscow’s position, and even amplified it.”

Some of these countries are looking for “means to hold Damascus accountable,” in the face of a contradictory and multi-sectarian Arab position.

In this regard, a number of Arab states are openly supportive of Moscow and its position in Ukraine, and may want to expedite normalization with Damascus or to circumvent sanctions to finance reconstruction.

Others expressed “hope that the Western-Russian polarization in Ukraine will not increase the suffering of the Syrians,” while major countries maintained their position that Damascus should meet “Arab and Syrian requirements.”

In any case, Ukraine has become an additional perspective for Arab and Western views on Syria.

The third issue was related to Pedersen’s proposal for a “step for step” approach, based on elements that include humanitarian aid, ceasefire, sanctions, early recovery, refugees, displaced people, and prisoners. Indeed, participants engaged in a detailed discussion about the efficacy of the proposal at the present time, amid the Russian-American division.

Moreover, questions were raised about the seriousness of Moscow and Damascus in agreeing to this proposal, especially in light of stances publicly expressed by the officials of the two countries. The Russian side wants to focus on the constitutional track, and rejects any shadows casting on its “accomplishment,” while Damascus refuses to engage in the new approach or any other, “with the presence of the American and Turkish occupations.”

The two sides are perhaps only interested in the funds that the “step for step” approach can provide through the clause of the “early recovery” support under Resolution 2585.

In general, with the lack of important initiatives by the major powers for the Greater Syria file, the meeting saw acceptance of the details and the continuation of collecting some factors for the “step for step” approach, without setting a specific timetable for this purpose. The participants also expressed support for the constitutional process.

Pedersen called for a meeting of the next round, to be held between May 28 and June 5, based on the mechanism adopted in the previous round.

On April 26, Pedersen sent out invitations to representatives of the government, the opposition and civil society, in which he said: “In implementation of my mandate, I invite you to the eighth session of the Constitutional Committee, led and owned by Syria, based on the same mechanism applied in the sixth and seventh sessions.”
He continued: “I am happy to reiterate that additional principles will be presented before delegations leave for Geneva, and that no less than 4 principles will be discussed during the eighth session.”

The Paris meeting was a Western-Arab visit to “forgotten Syria,” to say that it was “not forgotten.” However, the meeting revealed, once again, that Syria is an attachment to other files, and a captive of the moving or stagnant waters between Moscow and Washington.



Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
TT

Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)

It is difficult to predict what the outcomes will be of the discussions between Iran, France, Britain and Germany about Tehran’s nuclear program in Geneva on Friday.

Last week, the UN atomic watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution again ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

Britain, France, Germany and the United States, which proposed the resolution, dismissed as insufficient and insincere a last-minute Iranian move to cap its stock of uranium that is close to weapons-grade. Diplomats said Iran's move was conditional on scrapping the resolution.

Iran has been weighing its response to the censure, debating whether to increase uranium enrichment or by being open to the proposals expected at the Geneva talks.

The discussions may seek a new nuclear deal instead of the 2015 one with Tehran that is in tatters.

As it stands, Iran is likely to opt for negotiations instead of escalation due to a number of internal, regional and international reasons.

Diplomatic sources in Paris noted US President-elect Donald Trump’s appointments of officials handling Middle East affairs, underscoring their unreserved support to Israel and clear hostility to Iran.

These appointments may lead Iran to think twice before resorting to any escalation.

Even before Trump has taken office, his circles have said that the new president will take “several executive decisions related to Iran and that will be declared on his first day in office.” The decisions will be binding and do not need Congress’ approval.

However, Trump is unpredictable and the sources did not rule out the surprise possibility of him striking a deal with Iran related to its nuclear program and behavior in the Middle East. This means that Tehran will have to make major concessions, including abandoning its policy of “exporting the revolution”.

This remains a far-fatched possibility, however. In all likelihood, Washington under Trump will return to his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran on political, diplomatic and economic levels to make it return to the negotiations table and agree on a deal that completely ends its nuclear ambitions.

So, at the Geneva meeting on Friday, Tehran will seek to achieve two main goals: a nuclear breakthrough during what remains of US President Joe Biden’s time in office, and attempt to lure the European powers away from Trump.

The truth is that Tehran is wading in the unknown. One only has to go back to Trump’s past statements about how Israel should have struck Iran’s nuclear facilities during its October 26 attack on the country.

Trump has already shown Iran his hardline stance when he ordered the assassination of Quds Forces leader Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad airport in January 2020.

Based on this, Tehran is scrambling to avert a joint American-Israeli strike that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dreaming of.

Iran is vulnerable now due to two main reasons: the Israeli strike in October weakened Iran’s air defenses and Netanyahu has said that Israeli jets can now run rampant over Iran without any worries.

And Tehran can no longer rely on its allied militias to threaten Israel with all-out war. Hamas in Gaza is no longer in a position to threaten Israel and neither is Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So, Iran now finds itself exposed and would rather turn to negotiations with Europe than risk escalation that would cost it dearly with Israel now that it can no longer rely on Hamas and Hezbollah.