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What’s the Fallout from Ukraine’s Pipe Shutdown?

An employee walks at Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom's Sudzha pumping station, January 13, 2009. (Reuters)
An employee walks at Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom's Sudzha pumping station, January 13, 2009. (Reuters)
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What’s the Fallout from Ukraine’s Pipe Shutdown?

An employee walks at Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom's Sudzha pumping station, January 13, 2009. (Reuters)
An employee walks at Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom's Sudzha pumping station, January 13, 2009. (Reuters)

The shutdown of a gas pipeline in eastern Ukraine has sent a fresh wave of energy jitters through Europe.

The price of gas jumped - then fell. The cutoff is in sharp focus because it's the first time that the war has disrupted the Russian natural gas that flows through Ukraine to get to Europe, where it powers factories and generates electricity.

Here are key things to know:

What happened in Ukraine?
The operator of the gas pipeline system, Gas TSO of Ukraine, said it could no longer transport gas through a compressor station in the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine, near the border with Russia. It said it had no operational control over the station in Russian-held territory, with occupying forces interfering in the station's operation and diverting gas in a way that endangered the stability of the pipeline system.

The company said it repeatedly told Russian state-owned gas exporter Gazprom about threats to flows from such interference but that its appeals were ignored.

The pipeline handles around a third of Russian gas heading to Europe. The Ukrainian operator said the gas flows could be made up through another pipeline that crosses from Russia into Ukraine near the town of Sudzha.

Gazprom said that was not possible, but gas flows at Sudzha rose overnight, by about 8 million cubic meters per day.

Why is this getting attention?
While Russia has halted natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria over a dispute about payments in rubles, Wednesday's cutoff is the first disruption in gas supplies flowing through Ukraine due to the war.

Any suggestion that energy supplies are vulnerable sends prices higher. Spot gas prices rose 4% at the open of trading Wednesday, to 103 euros per megawatt. They later eased, to around 95 euros per megawatt hour, below where they were Tuesday.

European governments aren't happy about sending hundreds of millions of dollars a day to Russia for energy but haven't been able to agree on a natural gas boycott because of heavy dependence of major economies like Germany and Italy. The European Union’s executive commission has proposed a phaseout of Russian oil but has run up against resistance from reliant countries like Hungary.

Economists estimate that a total cutoff of both oil and natural gas would throw Europe into a recession. A loss of gas alone would hit industries such as metals, fertilizer, glass and ceramics that have already throttled back production in some cases due to high gas prices. And consumers would face even higher electric and heating bills than they already do.

To avoid those outcomes, the EU has proposed cutting Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of the year through additional supplies of pipeline gas from Norway and Azerbaijan, more purchases of liquefied gas that comes by ship, faster rollout of wind and solar, and conservation. Whether that can be achieved remains to be seen.

What is going on with gas flows?
Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at the ICIS market intelligence firm, said the Ukraine move "is not a huge cutoff to gas supplies." He described it as a loss of a few percent in overall European gas supply, when considering imports and domestic production.

"Nevertheless, it is worrying to the market that a development like this has happened," he said, noting concerns about possible energy sanctions that could interrupt deliveries and the gas cutoff to Bulgaria and Poland. "But it is not fundamentally altering the supply and demand balance in the European gas market."

Before the war, the share of Russian gas that flowed to Europe through Ukraine had fallen to around 18%. Of that, about a third goes through this particular part of the pipeline system that was shut down. That can be up to 32.6 million cubic meters a day; in recent days, it has been around 23 million cubic meters a day.

Much but not all of that gas could be rerouted through the pipeline entering Ukraine near Sudzha, said Zongqiang Luo, a gas analyst at Rystad Energy.

Even with added capacity through that town, some 10 million cubic meters per day of gas would still be in search of a pipeline route to get to Europe, and "where exactly is not clear as capacity in seemingly full," Luo said.

Over the course of a year, that daily flow would amount to around 3.6 billion cubic meters of gas, out of the roughly 150 billion cubic meters that Europe imports from Russia. It isn't a huge amount by comparison, but gas supplies are scarce, prices are high and gas importers and governments are scrambling to find all the non-Russian gas supplies they can.

What’s the impact on energy users in Europe?
Thanks to mild weather, Europe is in better shape on gas after scraping through the winter with barely adequate reserves. Reserves are filling faster than they did last year, but that needs to continue to cover demand this coming winter.

The interruption would make it harder for European countries to meet their goals for storage levels next winter and would "hasten Europe’s plans to move away from imports of Russian gas," Luo said.

"As the European gas grid is well integrated, no one country is likely to suffer any immediate impact, but this will put further strain on the system and place a floor on downside price movement,” Luo added.

Germany is receiving a quarter less gas through Ukraine, the Energy Ministry said Wednesday. Increased supplies from Norway and the Netherlands are partly compensating for the shortfall, said Annika Einhorn, a ministry spokeswoman.

She noted that the majority of Russian gas reaches Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic Sea rather than via Ukraine.

What are possible motivations for the move?
Both Gas TSO of Ukraine and Gazprom have sought to underline their reliability as gas suppliers despite the enmity fueled by the war so analysts are still trying to figure out what the game is. Barbara Lambrecht at Commerzbank said, "It remains to be seen whether the disruption to supply turns out to be anything more than just a flexing of muscles."

Tim Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said it could be about forcing Europe's hand.

"I think frustrations are building in Ukraine that Europe is proving too slow in rolling out an energy embargo on Russia," he said. "If Europe is not prepared to shut off the energy money printing machine for Moscow, why would Ukraine not take matters into their own hands?"

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Features

As Drone War Comes to Russia, Muscovites Shrug Their Shoulders and Carry On

A specialist inspects the damaged facade of a multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023. (AFP)
A specialist inspects the damaged facade of a multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023. (AFP)
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As Drone War Comes to Russia, Muscovites Shrug Their Shoulders and Carry On

A specialist inspects the damaged facade of a multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023. (AFP)
A specialist inspects the damaged facade of a multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023. (AFP)

After the biggest ever drone strike on Moscow brought the Ukraine war to the Russian capital, Muscovites carried on with their lives with the fatalism for which they are famous.

On a warm spring day in the city center, residents could be seen taking selfies in front of the Bolshoi Theater while others relaxed in cafes and shopped in the well-stocked luxury stores of Moscow.

Very few expressed concern at the news. Most shrugged their shoulders and many expressed sadness that the conflict appeared to be escalating.

"The Kyiv regime is already crossing all the lines," Natalia, 59, told Reuters, referring to the Ukrainian government which Russia said was behind the drone attack on Moscow.

"This is very sad, especially since they are directing these drones at residential buildings, at the city, at civilians, where there are no military facilities."

Though civilian targets in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities have, since the earliest days of the war, been struck repeatedly by Russian drones and missiles, Tuesday marked only the second time the Russian capital had come under direct fire, after an apparent drone strike on the Kremlin earlier this month.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that all the drones had been downed, though three collided with residential buildings in south Moscow and the town of Moskovskiy, on the capital's outskirts. Two people were injured.

The Kremlin said it was obvious that Ukraine was behind the attack and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the drones had been directed against civilian targets. Ukraine denied it was directly involved in targeting Moscow but forecast more attacks would follow.

War comes to Moscow

Some residents who spoke to Reuters suggested that the conflict in Ukraine was always likely to make itself felt at home, sooner or later.

Olga, who said she lived near to the site of one of the drone collisions on Profsoyuznaya Street, called the strikes "logical, to be expected ... what else were we waiting for?"

"Of course, I am glad it didn't fall on our house, just nearby", Olga added. "I'm thinking about moving to a safer place."

Drone debris hit some of Moscow most prestigious areas including Leninsky Prospekt, a grand avenue crafted under Josef Stalin, and the area of western Moscow where the Russian elite - including President Vladimir Putin - have their residences.

Residents in southwestern Moscow said they heard loud bangs at around 0200 to 0300 GMT, followed by the smell of petrol. Some filmed a drone being shot down and a plume of smoke rising over the Moscow skyline.

The Kremlin praised Moscow's air defenses and the military while Russian lawmakers suggested Russia needed to get tougher at rooting out traitors and saboteurs within Russia.

Exactly how the Russian population views the war is unclear as few trust pollsters enough to tell them the truth and even then, emigre opponents of Putin say, any negative polls would never be published.

Criticism of what the Kremlin calls the "special military operation" in Ukraine has been punishable by law since the start of the conflict, and public criticism of Putin is rare.

"You need to understand cause and effect, why everything is happening," one middle-aged man, who declined to give his name, told Reuters in central Moscow. "I think that these attacks are due to only one thing: the fact that our ruler began waging a war.

"All of this is because of our ruler," said the man. "It's no surprise it's bounced back to here."

Features

A Door of Hope, Death in Libya

Families of Egyptian migrants held captive and missing in Libya (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Families of Egyptian migrants held captive and missing in Libya (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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A Door of Hope, Death in Libya

Families of Egyptian migrants held captive and missing in Libya (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Families of Egyptian migrants held captive and missing in Libya (Asharq Al-Awsat)

In October 2022, a phone call from Italy reached me, the voice on the other end filled with worry and trepidation.

“My brother Adham traveled to Libya, and we have lost contact with him. We don't know if he is alive or dead,” disclosed Osama Abdel Tawab Amin, an Egyptian.

Amin proceeded to recount the events surrounding his 14-year-old brother Adham, who embarked on a journey from Egypt to Libya with the intention of reaching the eastern city of Benghazi.

Adham, a native of the Asyut governorate in southern Egypt, had become part of a group of numerous minors from various Arab and African countries who hoped to reach Europe.

Driven by the aspiration to migrate to Europe from a tender age, these underage children willingly subject themselves to the grip of human traffickers.

Departing from their villages, they embark on a hazardous expedition, fraught with the potential outcomes of imprisonment, arrival on European shores, or, tragically, repatriation to their home countries.

This time, however, the outcome was ominous as it led those minors to their “final resting place.”

Spanning from the Nile Delta to Sidi Barrani near the Libyan border and reaching into other countries, including Sudan and Chad, this investigation aims to document extensive human trafficking operations affecting minors.

Starting in early 2021, there has been a notable increase in reports from Egyptian, African, and Syrian families concerning their children’s journey to Libya and the subsequent loss of communication.

Desperate to reunite with their children, these families have been actively seeking assistance and have shared distressing accounts of their children falling prey to the deceitful tactics employed by human traffickers.

The somber reality of this tragedy came to light at the rear entrance of the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs building, offering a panoramic view of the Nile in Cairo.

It was in this location that Asharq Al-Awsat captured a significant collection of grievances submitted by individuals.

Furthermore, members of the Egyptian parliament have been presented with additional reports, each intertwined with a distressing combination of fear and despair.

In mid-March 2022, the Libyan Coast Guard issued a statement regarding the tragic sinking of a boat in the Mediterranean Sea.

The incident occurred off the coast of “Wadi Umm al-Shaush,” situated near the eastern Libyan city of Tobruk.

Among the migrants on board were around 18 young Egyptians.

Despite extensive search efforts conducted over several days, the family of Amr Sayed Anwar, a 15-year-old Egyptian boy hailing from a village in the Dakahlia governorate north of Cairo, received the devastating news that their son was among the victims of this tragic drowning incident.

After approximately a month had passed since the incident, I contacted Anwar’s father, who resides in a village near the town of El-Senbellawein, one of the administrative centers in the Dakahlia governorate.

The man, who is around fifty years old and works as a daily laborer on a farm, expressed that the authorities in Libya had not located his son’s body.

He sorrowfully stated: “I have lost my son forever.”

The grieving father’s intense emotional state prevented me from inquiring about the details of his son’s journey to Libya, but he erupted in anger when the term “broker” was mentioned.

“I paid 30,000 Egyptian pounds and he ended up traveling with 22 others, some older than him. They went to a broker in Marsa Matruh. After reaching Libya, the broker demanded an additional 70,000 pounds to continue the journey to Italy,” recalled the father angrily.

Upon being provided with the broker’s contact information by Anwar’s father, it became apparent to me that the “broker market” functions akin to any other market, governed by the dynamics of supply and demand, as well as the art of negotiation and bargaining.

In this market, each region within Libya carries a specific price that prospective migrants must pay, determined by its proximity or distance from the Egyptian borders.

It turned out that the broker referred to me by the father of the deceased child enjoys a wide reputation among those aspiring to engage in clandestine migration from several rural governorates in the Nile Delta, despite him residing in the Sidi Barrani area, located 570 kilometers northwest of Cairo.

The broker did not respond to any requests for an interview regarding his activities in facilitating border-crossing for migrants.

However, he later interacted with us when we identified ourselves as concerned parents seeking to migrate their children.

During the initial conversation, I asked him for assistance in smuggling three young boys to Libya, to which he did not object. He promptly inquired: “Which region do they want to go to?”

Abu Mazen, the broker operating under an alias, wasted no time and did not allow me much room to answer.

His mannerisms seemed to blend Egyptian and Libyan influences.

Without hesitation, he promptly stated the exact sum required and confidently asserted his ability to facilitate the transportation of any number of individuals across the Egyptian border into Libya.

In an attempt to reassure me, he even added: “I consider them my own children, I swear to God!”

Around ten days later, I contacted Abu Mazen, and it appeared that the sheer number of callers had caused him to forget our previous conversation. He asked for a recap of our discussion, and then I requested a meeting with him. With clear reluctance, he opted to schedule our meeting in Marsa Matruh a week later.

At the end of May 2022, during our conversation, Abu Mazen proposed a change of plans.

Instead of meeting in Marsa Matruh as initially planned, he suggested that it would be more convenient for both of us to meet in Alexandria. He explained that he would be visiting a relative there and offered the option for me to meet him in Alexandria if I preferred.

We met as planned at a seaside café in the Al-Asafira district of Alexandria, situated about 230 kilometers north of Cairo. Our discussion primarily focused on how young individuals are recruited and the various techniques employed to smuggle them out of the country.

I noticed that the sixty-year-old man spoke with ease, but when it came to the details, caution overcame him.

With a touch of boasting, Abu Mazen, whose phone never stopped ringing, began to showcase how he possessed a strong network of connections within Libya.

Suddenly, he said, “I don't exploit or deceive young people. They come to us seeking help to smuggle them into Libya, and we assist them, never leaving them except in the specific region they specify.”

During our time at the café, Abu Mazen took pride in the abundance of phone calls he received in less than an hour, highlighting the growing demand for his services.

He made a point of emphasizing that he does not overcharge like “others,” stating: “We hold ourselves accountable to God when it comes to people’s children.”

“I charge 20,000 pounds per person from the Barani border to Tripoli (approximately $650), and 15,000 pounds to Benghazi.”

“Others charge 40,000 or 50,000 pounds and abandon or sell them,” he added.

Abu Mazen further remarked: “Today, the Libyan dinar is valued at five Egyptian pounds,” referring to the exchange rate between the two currencies at that time (with the dollar equivalent to 5.12 dinars).

After my insistence, Abu Mazen enlightened me about the smuggling methods and said: “This has been my work for years, and I have my connections inside Libya, just ten hours away from the customs.”

With great caution, he mentioned that he brings young people from various provinces to the city of Marsa Matruh at a specific time before transporting them to Saloum.

From there, they would embark on foot through desert routes and trails, alongside the land border crossing that connects Egypt and Libya.

Despite my repeated inquiry about the age of the young individuals he helps smuggle, Abu Mazen displayed little concern for this matter.

He simply responded: “We’re in it for the money, their age is inconsequential to us.”

He chuckled and continued: “There is a significant demand for transporting young children. But what can we do? It's what their families desire!”

He clarified that the individuals who he smuggles have intentions to migrate from Libya to Europe, with the journey costing between 120,000 to 150,000 pounds.

Furthermore, he confidently stated: “Where would they go without me? My associates in Libya will handle everything!”

Features

Türkiye's Kilicdaroglu Faces the Heat after Election Loss to Erdogan

Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
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Türkiye's Kilicdaroglu Faces the Heat after Election Loss to Erdogan

Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)

After failing to seize the moment to defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye's elections, Kemal Kilicdaroglu faces questions about his leadership and the challenge of preserving a bitter opposition alliance ahead of local voting in March 2024.

According to some party members, analysts and voters, Kilicdaroglu, the opposition presidential candidate in Sunday's runoff vote, will need to immediately re-focus on maintaining control of Türkiye's big cities in the municipal elections.

But after his loss to Erdogan - who was seen as uniquely vulnerable due to a cost-of-living crisis - many opposition members and supporters are frustrated, soul-searching and considering leadership changes.

"It was not a surprising result since the opposition did not change for 20 years facing the same government," said Bugra Oztug, 24, who voted for Kilicdaroglu in Istanbul. "I feel sad and disappointed, but I am not hopeless."

Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant, got 47.8% support in the runoff vote despite an optimistic, inclusive campaign that pledged to rein in Erdogan's maverick economic policies.

Instead, Erdogan, modern Türkiye's longest-serving leader, will extend his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade, backed by a majority for his alliance in parliament.

Meanwhile the Republican People's Party (CHP), which Kilicdaroglu leads, holds internal discussions this week in Ankara to pick up the pieces. The broader six-party opposition alliance convened after Sunday's election results came in.

Akif Hamzacebi, a former CHP deputy parliamentary group chair, said his party and Kilicdaroglu were "seriously unsuccessful" because of a poor strategy, and a comprehensive re-evaluation is needed. If "the necessary actions are not taken, the future will be worse than today," he said on Twitter.

Second-guessing

Kilicdaroglu, 74, had long pressed to be the man to take on the 69-year-old Erdogan.

The opposition alliance - which included nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals - chose him as candidate in March, even though some members had warned at the time that he was not the strongest option based on opinion polls.

His selection came after a dramatic weekend in which Meral Aksener, leader of the IYI Party, the Turkish opposition's second largest, briefly walked out in protest.

Yet on the campaign trail, Kilicdaroglu won the key backing of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), leading most pollsters to predict he would prevail in the initial vote on May 14 and begin rolling back Erdogan's legacy.

In the end, he barely managed to force a runoff on May 28. In the last two weeks, he struggled to motivate voters in the face of an overwhelmingly pro-government mainstream media and Erdogan's strong base of support across rural Anatolia.

In a speech on Sunday evening, Kilicdaroglu called it "the most unfair election in years". But he gave no sign of resignation and said he "will continue to lead and struggle for democracy".

Atilla Yesilada, analyst at GlobalSource Partners, said, "I don't know whether CHP and IYI Party can tolerate their leadership anymore".

Zeynep Alemdar, professor of international relations at Okan University, said Kilicdaroglu sought to be a collaborative leader, but his allies contributed little to his success.

"None of them seem to have increased their share of votes, neither for themselves nor for Kilicdaroglu," she said.

Holding the cities

Analysts say Kilicdaroglu will now seek to keep this unwieldy alliance united, including the HDP's support, to hold on to cities in March.

In the last municipal elections in 2019, CHP candidates backed by the alliance shocked Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) by winning mayoralties in Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya and Adana.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of the CHP - who Aksener had promoted as a better presidential candidate than Kilicdaroglu - said on Monday that the "struggle is starting again".

"We will no longer expect different results by doing the same things. From now on, we will continue to fight to win all hearts," Imamoglu said in the video address.

An internal debate within the CHP, the party of modern Türkiye's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, will likely stir ahead of a party congress scheduled for this summer.

Emre Erdogan, political science professor at Istanbul's Bilgi University, said the opposition's election loss made it harder to form a "grand" alliance but this remained necessary for success in the local elections in March 2024.

"If the opposition cannot unite again, the victories of 2019 may be reversed and the opposition camp can lose Istanbul and even Ankara," he said.

Features

Disappointing Weather Takes its Toll on Gaza Wheat Crop 

A Palestinian man grinds wheat during harvest season on a farm in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip May 24, 2023. (Reuters)
A Palestinian man grinds wheat during harvest season on a farm in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip May 24, 2023. (Reuters)
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Disappointing Weather Takes its Toll on Gaza Wheat Crop 

A Palestinian man grinds wheat during harvest season on a farm in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip May 24, 2023. (Reuters)
A Palestinian man grinds wheat during harvest season on a farm in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip May 24, 2023. (Reuters)

Shifting weather patterns and disappointing rains in Gaza mean Palestinian farmer Itaf Qudeih has managed to harvest only a quarter of the wheat she once grew on her land.

"The wheat was taller and the grain was bigger, it is now very weak. The late winter influenced the crop and the quantity of the produce," said Qudeih, 60, as she joined fellow workers for the harvest in her fields in southern Gaza.

"This land used to produce a ton of grain, it is now making a quarter of a ton because of weaker rainfall," she added.

Mohammad Odah, of the Palestinian Agriculture Ministry, said the annual wheat harvest has fallen by 1,000 tons from last year because of the late winter season and unreliable rains. Last year production was 5,000 tons.

Usually, the local wheat harvest accounts for 2% of consumption in the enclave, whose 2.3 million people regard traditional flat breads as an indispensable part of their diet. The rest is imported.

Features

Planet-Friendly Farming Takes Root in Drought-Hit Tunisia

This picture taken on April 27, 2023, shows an agricultural field in Cap Negro in northern Tunisia. (AFP)
This picture taken on April 27, 2023, shows an agricultural field in Cap Negro in northern Tunisia. (AFP)
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Planet-Friendly Farming Takes Root in Drought-Hit Tunisia

This picture taken on April 27, 2023, shows an agricultural field in Cap Negro in northern Tunisia. (AFP)
This picture taken on April 27, 2023, shows an agricultural field in Cap Negro in northern Tunisia. (AFP)

Saber Zouani lost his job as a waiter when the Covid pandemic ravaged the Tunisian tourism sector, so he decided to try something new and started a permaculture farm.

Now he grows all the food he needs and has become a pioneer of the style of ecological agriculture that is gaining fans worldwide, including in his North African country.

Many hope it will help Tunisia weather the impacts of climate change and wean it off its reliance on global supply chains, including grain and fertilizer imports from war-torn Ukraine and Russia.

In his western home town of Cap Negro, Zouani, 37, proudly showed off his three-hectare (seven-acre) farm, set up to mimic natural ecosystems in line with ideas popularized in the 1970s by Australian ecologists.

Permaculture, as an alternative to industrial agriculture, aims to work in harmony with the environment, keep soil structures intact, and do without artificial inputs such as chemical fertilizers or pesticides.

"No, these are not weeds," said Zouani, a biotechnology graduate, pointing to nettles and dandelions growing wild all around his rows of onions, peppers and radishes.

When he harvests his vegetables, he said, he puts the excess green matter back onto the soil to slow evaporation -- hoping to keep the ground as moist as a forest floor covered with fallen leaves.

'Create living soil'

Such methods are especially useful in Tunisia where an unprecedented drought has parched the countryside and left water reservoirs at dangerously low levels this spring.

At his farm, Zouani captures precious rainwater in a pond and only sparingly waters his plants, which are all grown from his own seeds.

Zouani also keeps cows, sheep, goats and chickens and composts their droppings to create soil enriched with the nitrogen-rich natural fertilizer.

"We need to create living soil, attract earthworms, fungi and all the nutrients for our plants and trees," said Zouani.

Permaculture, he said, draws on farming methods and wisdoms of centuries past -- "returning to our roots, to the traditional methods used by our grandparents".

Zouani said he earns around 300 dinars ($100) a month from selling farm produce, with enough left over to make him, his brother and their elderly parents self-sufficient.

In two or three years, he hopes to make "a decent income" and turn his farm, named "Om Hnia" in honor of his late grandmother, into an eatery and eventually a rural eco-lodge.

Zouani started off more than two years ago with the help of the Tunisian Association of Permaculture, which gave him initial training and then financial support for basic equipment.

The group's "Plant Your Farm" project aims to create 50 micro-farms over five years, of which around 30 are already up and running, said its president Rim Mathlouthi.

'Bring back biodiversity'

The goal, Mathlouthi said, is to "demonstrate to the authorities and other farmers that permaculture is a profitable and efficient agricultural system which brings back biodiversity when the soil is depleted from ploughing and chemical inputs".

She said the initiative, with funding from Switzerland and others, even covers Tunisia's sun-baked arid regions and aims to entice jobless young people to cultivate abandoned family land.

It also hopes to help change a model "where the Tunisian farmer loses money because he is constantly spending, for a very small yield, on seeds, fertilizers and pesticides", said Mathlouthi.

Permaculture also aims to help Tunisia adapt to the searing drought that has badly impacted a farm sector centered on wheat, barley and other water-intensive cereals.

"Crises such as water stress or the Ukraine war are opportunities to promote solutions such as agro-ecology and permaculture," said Mathlouthi.

To help Tunisia's new eco-farmers sell their organic produce and spread the word on permaculture, the association has promoted farmers' markets and created a "citizen food" label.

Families flocked to a recent workshop at a school in the northern city of Bizerte, where they learnt green farming techniques and sampled their tasty produce.

"These are healthy products," enthused father-of-three Salem Laghouati, 44. "It's important to know what you're eating."

Maissa Haddad, a 49-year-old schoolteacher, said she was proud to be "educating children on permaculture" and teaching them that it is "beneficial for our planet and our lifestyle".

Features

Türkiye Election Runoff 2023: What You Need to Know

Election representatives prepare ballots with the presidential candidates at a polling station A woman votes at a polling station in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
Election representatives prepare ballots with the presidential candidates at a polling station A woman votes at a polling station in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
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Türkiye Election Runoff 2023: What You Need to Know

Election representatives prepare ballots with the presidential candidates at a polling station A woman votes at a polling station in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
Election representatives prepare ballots with the presidential candidates at a polling station A woman votes at a polling station in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)

Turks were voting on Sunday in a presidential election runoff between the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu that will decide whether the president extends his rule into a third decade.

Here is a guide to the runoff, the two candidates and the key issues as well as details on how the May 14 parliamentary election unfolded:

Presidential vote

Turks will be electing a president for a five-year term.

In the first round of voting on May 14, Erdogan got 49.5% support, falling just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff in a vote seen as a referendum on his autocratic rule.

Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of a six-party opposition alliance, received 44.9% support. Nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan came third with 5.2% support and was eliminated. The outcome confounded the expectations of pollsters who had put Kilicdaroglu ahead.

A referendum in 2017 narrowly approved Erdogan's move to broaden the powers of the presidency, making the president head of government and abolishing the post of prime minister.

As president, Erdogan sets policy on Türkiye’s economy, security, domestic and international affairs.

THE CANDIDATES:

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

More than 20 years after Erdogan and his AKP came to power, he hopes to extend his tenure as modern Türkiye’s longest serving ruler.

His strong performance on May 14, when he managed to mobilize conservative voters, defied predictions of his political demise.

Victory would entrench the rule of a leader who has transformed Türkiye, reshaping the secular state founded 100 years ago to fit his pious vision while consolidating power in his hands in what critics see as a march to autocracy.

Over the last week, Erdogan received the endorsement of hardline nationalist Sinan Ogan, boosting the incumbent and intensifying Kilicdaroglu's challenge in the runoff.

In the parliamentary vote held on May 14 support for Erdogan's AKP tumbled seven points from the 42.6% which it won in the 2018 elections, but with his alliance enjoying a parliamentary majority he has called on voters to support him in order to ensure political stability.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu

Kilicdaroglu is both the main opposition candidate and chairman of the CHP, which was established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk - the founder of modern Türkiye.

He has offered voters an inclusive platform and promised a democratic reset, including a return to a parliamentary system of government and independence for a judiciary that critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on dissent.

However, his rhetoric since May 14 has taken a hawkish turn as he reaches out to nationalist voters in his bid to overtake Erdogan, vowing to send back millions refugees.

Türkiye’s pro-Kurdish parties on Thursday reaffirmed their support for Kilicdaroglu in the runoff without naming him, a day after expressing anger at a deal which he reached with the far right, anti-immigrant Victory Party (ZP).

ZP leader Umit Ozdag declared his party's support for Kilicdaroglu on Wednesday in a potential boost to the CHP leader, countering the impact of Ogan's support for Erdogan. The ZP received 2.2% of votes in the parliamentary election.

What is at stake?

The vote will decide not only who leads Türkiye, a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed amid a deep cost of living crisis, and the shape of its foreign policy.

Erdogan's critics say his government has muzzled dissent, eroded rights and brought the judicial system under its sway, a charge denied by officials.

Türkiye’s economy is also in focus. Economists say it was Erdogan's unorthodox policy of low interest rates despite surging prices that drove inflation to 85% last year, and the lira slumping to one tenth of its value against the dollar over the last decade.

Kilicdaroglu has pledged to return to more orthodox economic policy and to restore the independence of the Turkish central bank.

On foreign affairs, under Erdogan, Türkiye has flexed military power, forged closer ties with Russia, and seen relations with the European Union and United States become increasingly strained.

Türkiye and the United Nations also brokered a deal between Moscow and Kyiv for Ukrainian wheat exports and Erdogan announced on May 17 the latest two-month extension.

Polling

More than 64 million Turks are eligible to vote at nearly 192,000 polling stations, including more than 6 million who were first-time voters on May 14. There are 3.4 million voters overseas, who voted between May 20-24.

Polling stations in Türkiye opened at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) on Sunday and close at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). The sale of alcohol is banned on election day.

Turnout in Turkish elections is generally high. On May 14, the overall turnout was 87.04% of eligible voters, with a level of 88.9% in Turkey and 49.4% abroad.

Results

Under election rules, news, forecasts and commentaries about the vote are banned until 6 p.m. (1500 GMT) and media are only free to report on election results from 9 p.m. (1800 GMT).

However, the High Election Board may allow media to report on results earlier and usually does. Results on Sunday evening are likely to emerge earlier than they did on May 14 given the relative simplicity of the ballot paper.

Features

ISIS Wives in Syria’s Roj Camp Face Consequences for Husbands’ Actions

Roj Camp in Al-Malikiyah Countryside, Al-Hasakah, Northeastern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roj Camp in Al-Malikiyah Countryside, Al-Hasakah, Northeastern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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ISIS Wives in Syria’s Roj Camp Face Consequences for Husbands’ Actions

Roj Camp in Al-Malikiyah Countryside, Al-Hasakah, Northeastern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roj Camp in Al-Malikiyah Countryside, Al-Hasakah, Northeastern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Located in northeastern Syria, Camp Roj is home to families and relatives of individuals associated with the notorious terrorist organization ISIS. Within this encampment, women and mothers find solace amidst their daily routines, sheltered under tents embellished with the emblem of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Their future remains uncertain as they patiently await the resolution of their destinies. In this desolate setting, the passage of time has become inconsequential, as evening merges seamlessly with daylight.

At Camp Roj, inhabitants are grappling with a prolonged pause in their lives and carry the weight of their memories and endure the painful revisiting of bygone moments.

The narratives of their journeys to Syria exhibit a remarkable resemblance.

For ISIS wives, when their husbands committed to joining the ranks of the extremist organization, their families were compelled to accompany them, bracing themselves for the repercussions.

When we carefully examine the daily lives of these women and mothers at Camp Roj and compare them to their previous normal lives in their home countries, it becomes clear that everything is different.

Located in the outskirts of the town of Al-Malikiyah in the Al-Hasakah province, Camp Roj is home to approximately 600 families, totaling around 2,500 individuals.

Among those individuals are Iraqi refugees, displaced Syrians, as well as foreign families of former ISIS fighters hailing from Western and Arab nations.

Asharq Al-Awsat visited this heavily guarded camp and conducted exclusive interviews with a Moroccan, an Egyptian, an Uzbek, and an Iraqi woman.

Most of the women who participated in this investigation expressed their struggles in obtaining sufficient funds to meet their basic needs.

They also lamented the difficulty of accessing clean drinking water, as well as the lack of hygiene, medical care, counseling, education, and proper nutrition.

These women are living within the confines of closed walls and surveillance cameras.

Shuruq, a Moroccan woman hailing from the city of Tetouan, shared her story of spending eight years in several Syrian cities that were subjected to bombings and destruction.

Eventually, she found herself seeking refuge under a tent that offers no protection from the winter cold or the scorching heat of summer.

Today, she bears the responsibility of raising orphaned children after their father, who brought them to this volatile corner of the Middle East, was killed.

“I never decided the fate of my life. I lived the life of my family, then the life of my husband, and now I am a widow at this age... I live each day as written by destiny,” said Shuruq.

The 36-year-old widow recounted her escape from areas under the control of ISIS in mid-2017 following the death of her husband.

“My husband chose to join the organization, and after his death, we had no remaining ties to it. We fled towards areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and sought refuge in the camp,” she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

She pointed out that one of the main obstacles preventing women like her from returning to their home countries is the presence of children born in Syria with multiple nationalities.

“My children were born in Morocco, and in my case, there is no legal conflict due to having dual nationality, mixed marriage or giving birth to children in Syria. I don't understand why Morocco hesitates to repatriate us when I am a widow and a mother to orphans.”

“When my mental state deteriorates, day and night become indistinguishable, and the daily routine becomes a blur,” said Shuruq about her daily struggle.

“Sometimes I prepare breakfast for my children at 9 in the morning, and on other days, it's at 3 in the afternoon because time holds no value,” she revealed, adding that she is living in burden.

Features

Children in Quake-Hit Syria Learn in Buses Turned Classrooms

Buses turned into traveling classrooms pull into at a displacement camp in Jindayris in the opposition-held northwestern Syrian province of Aleppo on May 23, 2023, following a devastating earthquake more than three months ago. (AFP)
Buses turned into traveling classrooms pull into at a displacement camp in Jindayris in the opposition-held northwestern Syrian province of Aleppo on May 23, 2023, following a devastating earthquake more than three months ago. (AFP)
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Children in Quake-Hit Syria Learn in Buses Turned Classrooms

Buses turned into traveling classrooms pull into at a displacement camp in Jindayris in the opposition-held northwestern Syrian province of Aleppo on May 23, 2023, following a devastating earthquake more than three months ago. (AFP)
Buses turned into traveling classrooms pull into at a displacement camp in Jindayris in the opposition-held northwestern Syrian province of Aleppo on May 23, 2023, following a devastating earthquake more than three months ago. (AFP)

In a dusty Syrian camp for earthquake survivors, school pupils line up and wait for a colorful bus to pull up. Since the disaster hit, they go to a classroom on wheels.

School bags on their backs and notebooks in hand, the children took off their shoes before entering the bus, then sat down along rows of desks fitted inside.

A teacher greeted them in the mobile classroom, decorated with curtains bearing children's designs, before they broke into a song for their English class.

The February 6 quake killed nearly 6,000 people in Syria, many of them in the war-torn country's opposition-held northwest, and also left tens of thousands dead in Türkiye.

The Syrian town of Jindayris, in Aleppo province near the Turkish border, was among the worst hit, with homes destroyed and school buildings either levelled or turned into shelters.

"We were living in Jindayris and the earthquake happened... and then we didn't have homes anymore," said 10-year-old Jawaher Hilal, a light pink headscarf covering her hair.

"We came to live here and the school was very far away," said the fifth-grader now staying with her family at the displacement camp on the outskirts of town.

As relief services were set up, she told AFP, "The buses came here and we started to study and learn. The buses are really nice, they teach us a lot."

The travelling classrooms are a project of the non-profit Orange Organization and service more than 3,000 children at some 27 camps, said education officer Raad al-Abd.

"The mobile classrooms offer educational services as well as psychological support to children who were affected by the quake," he said.

'Desperate conditions'

More than three months after the quake, 3.7 million children in Syria "continue to face desperate conditions and need humanitarian assistance", says the United Nations children's agency UNICEF.

"Almost 1.9 million children have had their education disrupted, with many schools still being used as shelters," it added in a statement this month.

In northwest Syria alone, "a minimum of 452 primary and secondary schools" were reportedly damaged to varying degrees, the UN humanitarian agency OCHA said weeks ago.

"More than 1 million school-aged children need education support and are at risk of being out of school," it said, adding that at least 25,000 teachers are also in need of help, including "mental health and psychosocial support".

On another bus, boys and girls enthusiastically interacted with the teacher, balloons hanging from the ceiling, for lessons that included Arabic, math and science.

Outside in the bare dirt, children sang in a circle and clapped along with the educators.

As the buses left, pulling out through the road running between the camps' tents, adjacent structures and trees, the children yelled out and waved goodbye.

Jawaher's father Ramadan Hilal expressed relief and gratitude for the initiative.

"After the earthquake there were no more schools or anything else," he said. "Even though they wanted to establish schools, they are far away."

Features

As Guns Go Silent, Gazan Children Still Have Nightmares 

Palestinian girl, Bissan al-Mansi, speaks to a psychiatrist at her house, in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, May 16, 2023. (Reuters)
Palestinian girl, Bissan al-Mansi, speaks to a psychiatrist at her house, in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, May 16, 2023. (Reuters)
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As Guns Go Silent, Gazan Children Still Have Nightmares 

Palestinian girl, Bissan al-Mansi, speaks to a psychiatrist at her house, in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, May 16, 2023. (Reuters)
Palestinian girl, Bissan al-Mansi, speaks to a psychiatrist at her house, in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, May 16, 2023. (Reuters)

Whenever a door slams, 10-year-old Bissan al-Mansi mistakes it for a bomb dropping. More than a week has passed since the latest round of fighting with Israel in Gaza, but al-Mansi says she still has nightmares.

Local psychiatrists said al-Mansi's symptoms were common among many children living in the enclave, who were experiencing lack of sleep, anxiety, bedwetting, as well as a tendency to stay glued to their parents and avoid going outdoors.

Palestinians have lived through several wars with Israel since 2008, which have made healing almost impossible as the causes remain unchanged, say local and international experts. They put the number of children needing mental health help at nearly a quarter of the enclave's 2.3 million population that lives under a crippling blockade enforced by Israel, which controls and restricts the Gaza Strip's borders.

Previous studies in Israel also find that Israeli children under continuous exposure to rocket fire in areas near Gaza experience high levels of stress, aggression and anxiety.

The latest bout of cross-border fire, which lasted five days, began with Israeli air strikes against alleged Islamic Jihad commanders in Gaza. Israeli officials alleged more than 1,000 rockets were fired at Israel. In all, 33 Palestinians were killed in Gaza, including children as well as six alleged armed group commanders, while an Israeli and a Palestinian worker were killed in Israel.

There are no safe bomb shelters in Gaza, where over 50% of Palestinians live in poverty and have no other place to take shelter than in their homes. Palestinian officials and international humanitarian organizations have warned that the healthcare system is on the brink of collapse. Access to health services is limited, movement is severely restricted, and the psychological scars run deep, aid groups have said.

"My dreams have changed, they were nicer before," said al-Mansi, who has seen a psychiatrist since the fighting ended. "I have a lot of fear. I can no longer sleep at night."

The girl's house, in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza, was among several homes that had been damaged or destroyed when Israel bombed their neighborhood after giving residents about 30 minutes to evacuate.

Al-Mansi, one of five siblings, said she was now too afraid to go outside, even to play with her friends. Before the fighting, she would wake up early eager to go to school, where her favorite subjects are Arabic and history, but since the fighting ended she hasn't returned.

"If someone slams the door, I imagine it is an air strike," she said.

'They bombed the whole square'

According to Hamas officials, the movement ruling Gaza, the latest round of Israeli air strikes, which began on May 9, destroyed 100 housing units and damaged 2,000 buildings.

The UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Process Tor Wennesland condemned the Israeli air strikes that killed civilians, while Israel denied it targets civilians. Wennesland also condemned the "indiscriminate" firing of rockets toward Israel.

Social activists, medics with the Palestinian Red Crescent, and psychiatrists toured areas affected and met with the children and their families to offer guidance on recovery.

"I came here to distract myself from the pressure," said Joudy Harb, 11, as volunteers in cartoon costumes painted the children's faces, played and danced. "They said they wanted to bomb two houses and instead, they bombed the whole square."

According to officials from the UN's Children's Fund (UNICEF), half of the young people in Gaza - around 500,000 children - could be in need of psychological support after 11 days of fighting in 2021 between Gaza's Hamas and Israel.

UN officials and Palestinian mental health experts said that for the sake of all children's well-being and their future, a long-term peaceful solution to the Israeli military occupation is needed, one that prevents a repetition of wars and is sustainable.

Following another round of fighting, Palestinian families said the traumatic symptoms their children endured have worsened.

"Unfortunately, the fear remains planted in their hearts," said Mazeyouna al-Mansi, the girl's aunt.

Features

How Damage from a US Debt Default Could Cascade Across the Global Economy 

The likeness of Benjamin Franklin is seen on US $100 bills, Thursday, July 14, 2022, in Marple Township, Pa. (AP)
The likeness of Benjamin Franklin is seen on US $100 bills, Thursday, July 14, 2022, in Marple Township, Pa. (AP)
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How Damage from a US Debt Default Could Cascade Across the Global Economy 

The likeness of Benjamin Franklin is seen on US $100 bills, Thursday, July 14, 2022, in Marple Township, Pa. (AP)
The likeness of Benjamin Franklin is seen on US $100 bills, Thursday, July 14, 2022, in Marple Township, Pa. (AP)

If the debt crisis roiling Washington were eventually to send the United States crashing into recession, America's economy would hardly sink alone.

The repercussions of a first-ever default on the federal debt would quickly reverberate around the world. Orders for Chinese factories that sell electronics to the United States could dry up. Swiss investors who own US Treasurys would suffer losses. Sri Lankan companies could no longer deploy dollars as an alternative to their own dodgy currency.

“No corner of the global economy will be spared” if the US government defaulted and the crisis weren't resolved quickly, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Zandi and two colleagues at Moody’s have concluded that even if the debt limit were breached for no more than week, the US economy would weaken so much, so fast, as to wipe out roughly1.5 million jobs.

And if a government default were to last much longer — well into the summer — the consequences would be far more dire, Zandi and his colleagues found in their analysis: US economic growth would sink, 7.8 million American jobs would vanish, borrowing rates would jump, the unemployment rate would soar from the current 3.4% to 8% and a stock-market plunge would erase $10 trillion in household wealth.

Of course, it might not come to that. The White House and House Republicans, seeking a breakthrough, concluded a round of debt-limit negotiations Sunday, with plans to resume talks Monday. The Republicans have threatened to let the government default on its debts by refusing to raise the statutory limit on what it can borrow unless President Joe Biden and the Democrats accept sharp spending cuts and other concessions.

Feeding the anxiety is the fact that so much financial activity hinges on confidence that America will always pay its financial obligations. Its debt, long viewed as an ultra-safe asset, is a foundation of global commerce, built on decades of trust in the United States. A default could shatter the $24 trillion market for Treasury debt, cause financial markets to freeze up and ignite an international crisis.

“A debt default would be a cataclysmic event, with an unpredictable but probably dramatic fallout on US and global financial markets,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The threat has emerged just as the world economy is contending with a panoply of threats — from surging inflation and interest rates to the ongoing repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the tightening grip of authoritarian regimes. On top of all that, many countries have grown skeptical of America’s outsize role in global finance.

In the past, American political leaders generally managed to step away from the brink and raise the debt limit before it was too late. Congress has raised, revised or extended the borrowing cap 78 times since 1960, most recently in 2021.

Yet the problem has worsened. Partisan divisions in Congress have widened while the debt has grown after years of rising spending and deep tax cuts. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the government could default as soon as June 1 if lawmakers don't raise or suspend the ceiling.

“If the trustworthiness of (Treasurys) would become impaired for any reason, it would send shockwaves through the system ... and have immense consequences for global growth,” said Maurice Obstfeld, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

Treasurys are widely used as collateral for loans, as a buffer against bank losses, as a haven in times of high uncertainty and as a place for central banks to park foreign exchange reserves.

Given their perceived safety, the US government’s debts — Treasury bills, bonds and notes — carry a risk weighting of zero in international bank regulations. Foreign governments and private investors hold nearly $7.6 trillion of the debt — roughly 31% of the Treasurys in financial markets.

Because the dollar's dominance has made it the de facto global currency since World War II, it's relatively easy for the United States to borrow and finance an ever-growing pile of government debt.

But high demand for dollars also tends to make them more valuable than other currencies, and that imposes a cost: A strong dollar makes American goods pricier relative to their foreign rivals, leaving US exporters at a competitive disadvantage. That’s one reason why the United States has run trade deficits every year since 1975.

Of all the foreign exchange reserves held by the world’s central banks, US dollars account for 58%. No. 2 is the euro: 20%. China’s yuan makes up under 3%, according to the IMF.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve have calculated that from 1999 to 2019, 96% of trade in the Americas was invoiced in US dollars. So was 74% of trade in Asia. Elsewhere outside of Europe, where the euro dominates, dollars accounted for 79% of trade.

So reliable is America's currency that merchants in some unstable economies demand payment in dollars, instead of their own country’s currency. Consider Sri Lanka, battered by inflation and a dizzying drop in the local currency. Earlier this year, shippers refused to release 1,000 containers of urgently needed food unless they were paid in dollars. The shipments piled up at the docks in Colombo because the importers weren't able to obtain dollars to pay the suppliers.

“Without (dollars), we can’t do any transaction,” said Nihal Seneviratne, a spokesman for Essential Food Importers and Traders Association. “When we import, we have to use hard currency — mostly the US dollars.”

Likewise, many shops and restaurants in Lebanon, where inflation has raged and the currency has plunged, are demanding payment in dollars. In 2000, Ecuador responded to an economic crisis by replacing its own currency, the sucre, with dollars — a process called “dollarization” — and has stuck with it.

Even when a crisis originates in the United States, the dollar is invariably the go-to haven for investors. That's what happened in late 2008, when the collapse of the US real estate market toppled hundreds of banks and financial firms, including once-mighty Lehman Brothers: The dollar's value shot up.

“Even though we were the problem — we, the United States — there was still a flight to quality,” said Clay Lowery, who oversees research at the Institute of International Finance, a banking trade group. “The dollar is king.”

If the United States were to pierce the debt limit without resolving the dispute and the Treasury defaulted on its payments, Zandi suggests that the dollar would once again rise, at least initially, “because of the uncertainty and the fear. Global investors just wouldn’t know where to go except to where they always go when there’s a crisis and that’s to the United States.”

But the Treasury market would likely be paralyzed. Investors might shift money instead into US money market funds or the bonds of top-flight US corporations. Eventually, Zandi says, growing doubts would shrink the dollar's value and keep it down.

In a debt-ceiling crisis, Lowery, who was an assistant Treasury secretary during the 2008 crisis, imagines that the United States would continue to make interest payments to bondholders. And it would try to pay its other obligations — to contractors and retirees, for example — in the order that those bills became due and as money became available.

For bills that were due on June 3, for example, the government might pay on June 5. A bit of relief would come around June 15. That's when government revenue would pour in in as many taxpayers make estimated tax payments for the second quarter.

The government would likely be sued by those who weren’t getting paid — “anybody who lives off veterans’ benefits or Social Security,” Lowery said. And ratings agencies would likely downgrade US debt, even if the Treasury continued to pay interest to bondholders.

The dollar, though it remains dominant globally, has lost some ground in recent years as more banks, businesses and investors have turned to the euro and, to a lesser extent, China’s yuan. Other countries tend to resent how swings in the dollar's value can hurt their own currencies and economies.

A rising dollar can trigger crises abroad by drawing investment out of other countries and raising their cost of repaying dollar-denominated loans. The United States’ eagerness to use the dollar’s clout to impose financial sanctions against rivals and adversaries is also viewed uneasily by some other countries.

So far, though, no clear alternatives have emerged. The euro lags far behind the dollar. Even more so does China’s yuan; it's hamstrung by Beijing’s refusal to let its currency trade freely in global markets.

But the debt ceiling drama is sure to heighten questions about the enormous financial power of the United States and the dollar.

“The global economy is in a pretty fragile place right now,” Obstfeld said. “So throwing into that mix a crisis over the creditworthiness of US obligations is incredibly irresponsible.”