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Hezbollah, Allies Likely to Lose Parliamentary Majority in Lebanon

Election officials count ballots shortly after polling stations closed, in the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon, Sunday, May 15, 2022. (AP)
Election officials count ballots shortly after polling stations closed, in the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon, Sunday, May 15, 2022. (AP)
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Hezbollah, Allies Likely to Lose Parliamentary Majority in Lebanon

Election officials count ballots shortly after polling stations closed, in the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon, Sunday, May 15, 2022. (AP)
Election officials count ballots shortly after polling stations closed, in the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon, Sunday, May 15, 2022. (AP)

Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies are likely to lose their majority in Lebanon's parliament following Sunday's elections, three sources allied to the group said on Monday, in a major blow to the party that reflects anger with ruling parties.

Losses for the pro-Iran coalition - combined with unexpected wins for newcomer candidates against other establishment parties - could lead to political deadlock and exacerbate tensions, risking further delays to reforms addressing Lebanon's crippling economic crisis.

Lebanon's interior ministry on Monday announced a first batch of official results for the elections, the first since the economic meltdown and a huge port explosion rocked the capital.

Opponents of Shiite Hezbollah including the Lebanese Forces (LF) and reform-minded newcomers scored significant wins according to partial official results, campaign managers and party sources.

Political sources allied to Hezbollah said their own preliminary counts showed it was improbable the party and its allies would secure more than 64 of parliament's 128 seats.

That marked a notable drop from the 2018 elections, when the alliance won 71 seats, pulling Lebanon deeper into the orbit of Iran and away from its Arab fold.

This year's results could counter that influence. Iran on Monday said it respected the vote and had never intervened in Lebanon's internal affairs.

Locally, the results leave parliament fractured into several camps and more sharply polarized between Hezbollah's allies and opponents, who are not currently united into a single bloc.

'National celebration'
Among the notable losses is top Hezbollah ally and deputy parliament speaker Elie Ferzli, 72, who lost the Christian Orthodox seat in West Bekaa, according to official results.

Ferzli lost to a candidate backed by established Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, but Jumblatt's list also lost a Sunni seat to independent candidate Yassin Yassin.

"After two-and-a-half years of directly facing off in the streets against a government of injustice, finally, we've begun the journey to change in Lebanon. This is a national celebration!" Yassin told Reuters.

Other startling losses include Hezbollah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan, first elected in 1992, who lost his seat to newcomer Mark Daou.

Independent candidate Elias Jradi was expected to snatch an Orthodox Christian seat from Assaad Hardan, a pro-Syria member of parliament in Hezbollah's traditional south Lebanon stronghold.

The LF said no single grouping had a majority - including Hezbollah - but put its own wins at 20 seats, up from 15 in 2018.

That would allow it to overtake the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the biggest Christian party in parliament since 2005.

Founded by President Michel Aoun, the FPM won up to 16 seats, the head of its electoral machine told Reuters, down from 18 in 2018.

Their diminished representation - combined with losses in the south and West Bekaa - would deliver a "major blow" to Hezbollah's claim of having cross-sectarian support for its arsenal, said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Nonetheless, Hezbollah and the allied Shiite Amal Movement of influential parliament Speaker Nabih Berri swept all seats reserved for their Shiite sect, according to projections from both parties.

Sunni representation appeared split between allies and opponents of Hezbollah, amid low turnout for a sect once dominated by leading politician Saad al-Hariri.

Hariri's withdrawal from political life splintered the Sunni political leadership and kept many would-be voters at home.

Impoverished Tripoli scored the lowest voter turnout. Mustafa Alloush, a former Hariri associate who ran unsuccessfully as an independent there, said families waited for electoral bribes that never came.

"It's such a sad scene," Alloush told Reuters.

The next parliament must elect a speaker, nominate a prime minister to form a cabinet, then elect a president to replace Aoun, whose term ends on Oct. 31.

Any delay may further postpone reforms required to unlock support from the International Monetary Fund and donor nations.

Jamil al-Sayyed, an MP close to Hezbollah who retained his seat, told Reuters the result would lead to an increasingly dysfunctional political system.

Any failure to pull together a parliamentary majority raised the specter of "social implosion or civil war, unless foreign powers intervene," said Sayyed.

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Arab World

Arab Parliament President Stresses Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Pose Direct Threat to Regional Security

Arab Parliament President Stresses Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Pose Direct Threat to Regional Security
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Arab Parliament President Stresses Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Pose Direct Threat to Regional Security

Arab Parliament President Stresses Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Pose Direct Threat to Regional Security

President of the Arab Parliament Mohammed bin Ahmed Al-Yamahi stressed that repeated terrorist attacks by the Houthi militia against Saudi Arabia and its civilian and oil facilities pose a direct threat to regional security.

During his speech at the 153rd Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union in Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania, Al-Yamahi addressed Iranian attacks that targeted several Arab countries and threatened civilians, infrastructure, and vital facilities, SPA reported.

He also discussed regional escalation and related threats to the security of Arab countries. He called on the international community to move beyond condemnation and take measures to protect states and their sovereignty and compel the parties to respect international law.

Arab World

Sudan’s Burhan Rules Out Talks with RSF or ‘Any Other Party’

Wreckage of a drone allegedly used in an attack on Damazin (activists’ Facebook pages). 
Wreckage of a drone allegedly used in an attack on Damazin (activists’ Facebook pages). 
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Sudan’s Burhan Rules Out Talks with RSF or ‘Any Other Party’

Wreckage of a drone allegedly used in an attack on Damazin (activists’ Facebook pages). 
Wreckage of a drone allegedly used in an attack on Damazin (activists’ Facebook pages). 

Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has reiterated his refusal to negotiate with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) or “any other party,” vowing to continue military operations despite renewed US efforts to secure a political settlement.

His remarks came after Massad Boulos, US President Donald Trump’s senior adviser for Arab and African affairs, announced that he had met Burhan in Egypt earlier this week.

Meanwhile, a drone attack on Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile state, killed four women and wounded dozens of civilians, according to a Sudanese human rights group.

Addressing residents of Amri locality in Northern state on Tuesday, Burhan declared: “There will be no negotiations with the rebels or with any other party,” without specifying whom else he meant.

“We are a state of institutions. Decisions on negotiations, peace and war are therefore made by the Security and Defense Council,” he added, according to a statement from the Sovereignty Council’s media office.

Burhan, who heads the Sovereignty Council and commands the armed forces, reaffirmed his determination to continue what he described as efforts to defeat and eliminate the rebellion.

He also praised Amri residents for supporting the army and the Popular Resistance, reiterating the military’s commitment to what it calls the “Battle of Dignity.”

Deadly drone attack

Hours after Burhan’s remarks, Emergency Lawyers, a volunteer human rights organization, reported that drones belonging to the RSF had struck civilian sites in Damazin early Wednesday.

The strikes hit homes and a mosque, killing four women in the Al-Hijra neighborhood and wounding dozens of civilians, the group alleged.

Its statement provided no further details about the wounded or how it had established responsibility for the attack.

Emergency Lawyers warned against continued attacks on civilian sites, stressing that deliberately targeting them constitutes a serious violation of international humanitarian law.

The organization demanded an end to the attacks and accountability for those responsible, urging all parties to the conflict to respect civilian protections and avoid endangering lives.

Neither the army nor the RSF issued a comment, although platforms aligned with the paramilitary group reported that the drones had targeted the homes of the finance and information ministers.

In a separate statement, Damazin Technical College condemned a two-drone attack on its campus, reporting damage to classrooms, administrative offices, laboratories, and other infrastructure.

Diplomatic efforts

Burhan’s rejection of negotiations came less than a day after Boulos announced that he had attended a lunch hosted by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in New Alamein, on the sidelines of an African Union coordination meeting, where he met the Sudanese leader.

In a post on X on Monday, Boulos reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to working with regional and international partners toward a political settlement that would help end Sudan’s war and alleviate the country’s humanitarian suffering.

He emphasized US support for Sudan’s unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Boulos, the diplomatic efforts aim to restore security and stability, begin reconstruction and development, and facilitate a transition to a civilian-led government through an inclusive national dialogue owned and led by the Sudanese people.

In a television interview last September, Boulos maintained that Washington engaged with both sides in Sudan’s conflict without formally recognizing either.

He also stressed that his meetings with Burhan did not constitute recognition of the Sudanese government.

However, in his latest X post, Boulos referred to Burhan by his official title, “Chairman of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council,” wording that some interpreted as tacit recognition.

Boulos has argued that maintaining contact with both warring parties is essential to reaching a peaceful settlement and facilitating humanitarian aid deliveries.

His remarks followed a Sept. 22 statement by US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott, who declared that neither the Sudanese army nor the RSF and their leaders represented a legitimate constitutional government of Sudan.

Pigott also affirmed Washington’s readiness to work with partners committed to peace.

The diplomatic exchanges coincided with Washington’s refusal to grant Burhan a visa to attend the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York.

Reuters reported at the time, citing a Sudanese diplomatic source and a Western analyst, that Burhan’s participation had been made conditional on his acceptance of a 90-day truce proposed by Boulos. The US State Department declined to comment.

Arab World

Iraq Warns of ISIS Resurgence after Attacks North of Baghdad

A member of the Iraqi security forces in Baghdad (AFP)
A member of the Iraqi security forces in Baghdad (AFP)
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Iraq Warns of ISIS Resurgence after Attacks North of Baghdad

A member of the Iraqi security forces in Baghdad (AFP)
A member of the Iraqi security forces in Baghdad (AFP)

Iraqi officials warned Wednesday of an ISIS resurgence after a series of attacks on security forces in rural areas north of Baghdad left several personnel dead or wounded, prompting authorities to impose a nighttime curfew in parts of Kirkuk province.

Security sources said the second battalion of the Popular Mobilization Forces’ 61st Brigade came under armed attack late Tuesday in the village of Al-Barghaliya–Al-Dandish in Hawija district, southwest of Kirkuk.

A sniper disabled a thermal imaging camera at a military position, triggering search operations in the village and surrounding areas to track down the attackers.

The assault came a day after an attack on the Federal Police’s Ninth Brigade in the same village killed one person and wounded four others. Several thermal imaging cameras were also destroyed, according to a security source.

The Federal Police Command identified the slain officer as Bakr Majid Mohammed, who was killed while confronting ISIS militants attempting to storm his guard post in Al-Barghaliya in Hawija district.

The position falls within the operational area of the third battalion of the Ninth Brigade, Federal Police Third Division.

Nighttime curfew

In response to the attacks, Federal Police authorities imposed a curfew across Hawija and its villages from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m.

The restrictions prohibit movement during those hours, with tighter controls on motorcycles, cars and cargo motorcycles. The latter may operate only in essential cases with official authorization.

Residents were urged to comply with the measures and cooperate with security forces, while authorities warned that violations could result in legal action.

Security was also tightened around farms and villages near Federal Police positions, with restrictions on the movement of farmers whose land lies close to security deployments.

Ahmed Ramzi Koprulu, chairman of the Kirkuk Provincial Council’s Security and Defense Committee, said that the Hawija attack underscored the continuing threat posed by ISIS sleeper cells.

He called for stronger intelligence gathering and intensified security operations to prevent further attacks.

Speaking to Shafaq News, Koprulu stressed the need to prevent militants from regrouping or exploiting remote areas to target security forces and civilians. He also urged closer coordination and intelligence-sharing among security agencies.

On Monday, ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack southwest of Kirkuk city that killed an Iraqi police officer and wounded others.

It was the group’s first attack on Iraqi security forces since US troops completed their withdrawal from Iraq on Sept. 30, bringing their military mission in the country to an end.

On the day of the withdrawal, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi called for heightened vigilance, constant readiness and closer coordination among security forces.

He also asked security agencies to update their operational plans, procedures and databases and make greater use of modern technology to maintain stability nationwide.

How serious is the threat?

Despite the recent violence, security experts played down ISIS’s ability to regain control of territory.

Security analyst Sarmad al-Bayati told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group, or what remains of it, could still threaten military units in some areas because it possesses weapons and explosive belts.

However, he argued that it no longer poses a threat to Iraq’s overall national security.

Bayati described the Hawija incidents as limited attacks by sleeper cells, suggesting they could nevertheless be used for political purposes amid the debate over the US withdrawal and efforts to disarm armed factions.

Security expert Mukhlid Hazem also dismissed the prospect of ISIS staging a resurgence on the scale of its 2014 offensive.

He said the group’s capabilities were now largely confined to deploying small armed units in scattered areas, while Iraqi security forces worked to contain them through preemptive operations.

“The organization’s attacks coinciding with the US withdrawal are merely an attempt to demonstrate that it still exists,” Hazem told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added that ISIS was no longer capable of carrying out attacks in city centers, even where it retained local support networks.

Still, he urged caution over the possibility of larger militant groups attempting to mobilize.

Political science professor Abbas Abboud pointed to significant improvements in Iraq’s intelligence capabilities compared with previous years, arguing that these advances reduced the likelihood of ISIS expanding its operations.

He cautioned, however, that threats could also emerge from other terrorist groups enlisted by various parties to advance specific objectives.