Oil Prices Move Higher on Tight Supplies, Firm Demand Outlook

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
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Oil Prices Move Higher on Tight Supplies, Firm Demand Outlook

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo

Oil prices recovered on Thursday from a steep drop in the previous session, supported by tight oil supply and peak summer consumption, after a US rate hike sparked fears of slower economic growth and less fuel demand.

Brent crude futures rose 77 cents, or 0.7%, to $119.28 a barrel by 0400 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed to $116.33 a barrel, up $1.02, or 0.9%, Reuters reported.

Prices slipped more than 2% overnight after the Federal Reserve raised interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the biggest hike since 1994.

The dollar index retreated from a 20-year high, easing downward pressure on oil prices. A stronger greenback makes US dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, curtailing demand.

Investors remained focused on tight supplies and robust demand as Western sanctions restricted access to Russian oil.

"It was overall a volatile session across almost all markets yesterday," said Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore's OCBC bank.

"Tight fundamentals suggest any dips in oil prices are likely to be short-lived, or shallow, or possibly both."

Optimism that China's oil demand will rebound as it eases COVID-19 restrictions also supported the price outlook.

"A rebound in China demand sentiment, and expected seasonal ramp-up in OECD oil demand into August leaves price risk to the upside through 3Q 2022," said Baden Moore, head of commodities research at the National Australia Bank.

US crude production, which has been largely stagnant over the last few months, edged up 100,000 barrels per day last week to 12 million bpd, its highest level since April 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed.

US crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell in the week through June 10, the EIA said.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.