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Europe May Shift Back to Coal as Russia Turns Down Gas Flows

Pipes at the landfall facilities of the "Nord Stream 1" gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany, March 8, 2022. (Reuters)
Pipes at the landfall facilities of the "Nord Stream 1" gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany, March 8, 2022. (Reuters)
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Europe May Shift Back to Coal as Russia Turns Down Gas Flows

Pipes at the landfall facilities of the "Nord Stream 1" gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany, March 8, 2022. (Reuters)
Pipes at the landfall facilities of the "Nord Stream 1" gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany, March 8, 2022. (Reuters)

Europe's biggest Russian gas buyers raced to find alternative fuel supplies on Monday and could burn more coal to cope with reduced gas flows from Russia that threaten an energy crisis in winter if stores are not refilled.

Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands have all signaled that coal-fired power plants could help see the continent through a crisis that has sent gas prices surging and added to the challenge facing policymakers battling inflation.

The Dutch government said on Monday it would remove a cap on production at coal-fired energy plants and will activate the first phase of an energy crisis plan.

Denmark has also initiated the first step of an emergency gas plan due to the Russian supply uncertainty.

Italy moved closer to declaring a state of alert on energy after oil company Eni said it was told by Russia's Gazprom that it would receive only part of its request for gas supplies on Monday.

Germany, which has also experienced lower Russian flows, has announced its latest plan to boost gas storage levels and said it could restart coal-fired power plants that it had aimed to phase out.

"That is painful, but it is a sheer necessity in this situation to reduce gas consumption," said Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the Green party that has pushed for a faster exit from coal, which produces more greenhouse gases.

"But if we don't do it, then we run the risk that the storage facilities will not be full enough at the end of the year towards the winter season. And then we are blackmailable on a political level," he said.

Russia on Monday repeated its earlier criticism that Europe had only itself to blame after the West imposed sanctions in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a gas transit route to Europe as well as a major wheat exporter.

The Dutch front-month gas contract, the European benchmark, was trading around 124 euros ($130) per megawatt hour (MWh) on Monday, down from this year's peak of 335 euros but still up more than 300% on its level a year ago.

Filling inventories slowly

Markus Krebber, CEO of Germany's largest power producer RWE , said power prices could take three to five years to fall back to lower levels.

Russian gas flows to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, the main route supplying Europe's biggest economy, were still running at about 40% of capacity on Monday, even though they had edged up from the start of last week.

Ukraine said its pipelines could help to fill any gap in supply via Nord Stream 1. Moscow has previously said it could not pump more through the pipelines that Ukraine has not already shut off.

Eni and German utility Uniper were among European companies that said they were receiving less than contracted Russian gas volumes, although Europe's gas inventories are still filling - albeit more slowly.

They were about 54% full on Monday against a European Union target of 80% by October and 90% by November.

Germany's economy ministry said bringing back coal-fired power plants could add up to 10 gigawatts of capacity in case gas supply hit critical levels. A law related to the move goes to the upper house of parliament on July 8.

Alongside a shift back to coal, the latest German measures include an auction system to encourage industry to consume less gas, and financial help for Germany's gas market operator, via state lender KfW, to fill gas storage faster.

RWE said on Monday it could prolong the operation of three 300 megawatt (MW) brown coal power plants if needed.

Russia blames West

Austria's government agreed with utility Verbund on Sunday to convert a gas-fired power plant to coal should the country face an energy emergency. OMV said on Monday Austria was set to receive half the usual amount of gas for a second day.

The Netherlands will remove a production cap at coal-fired energy plants to preserve gas in the light of Gazprom's moves to cut supplies to Europe. Dutch energy minister Rob Jetten, who made the announcement on Monday, said the government had also activated the "early warning" phase of a three-part energy crisis plan.

Russia's state-controlled Gazprom cut capacity last week along Nord Stream 1, citing the delayed return of equipment being serviced by Germany's Siemens Energy in Canada.

"We have gas, it is ready to be delivered, but the Europeans must give back the equipment, which should be repaired under their obligations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

German and Italian officials have said Russia was using this as an excuse to reduce supplies.

Italy, whose technical committee for gas is expected to meet on Tuesday, has said it could declare a heightened state of alert on gas this week if Russia continues to curb supplies.

The move would trigger measures to reduce consumption, including rationing gas for selected industrial users, ramping up production at coal power plants and asking for more gas imports from other suppliers under existing contracts.

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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)

On 24 February 2022, in a televised speech heralding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Then on 27 February 2022, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a “special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.”

Dr. Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security program at Chatham House, wrote in a report that according to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to “combat” allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

She said Putin made stronger nuclear threats in September 2022, following months of violent conflict and gains made by a Ukrainian counterattack.

“He indicated a stretch in Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use from an existential threat to Russia to a threat to its territorial integrity,” Lewis wrote.

In November 2022, according to much later reports, the US and allies detected manoeuvres that suggested Russian nuclear forces were being mobilized.

Lewis said that after a flurry of diplomatic activity, China’s President Xi Jinping stepped in to calm the situation and speak against the use of nuclear weapons.

In September 2024, Putin announced an update of the 2020 Russian nuclear doctrine. The update was published on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

According to Lewis, the 2020 doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

On 21 November 2024, Russia attacked Dnipro in Ukraine using a new ballistic missile for the first time.

She said Putin announced the missile as the ‘Oreshnik’, which is understood to be a nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a theoretical range of below 5,500km.

Lewis added that Russia has fired conventionally armed nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine throughout the war, but the Oreshnik is much faster and harder to defend against, and suggests an escalatory intent by Russia.

Nuclear Response During Cold War

In her report, Lewis said that nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called ‘mutually assured destruction’ (MAD).

The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction from nuclear weapons is enough to deter aggressive action and war, she added.

But the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks and AI, which could interfere with the command and control of nuclear weapons.

In light of these risks, presidents Biden and Xi issued a joint statement from the 2024 G20 summit affirming the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia exchange information on their strategic, long-range nuclear missiles under the New START agreement – a treaty to reduce and monitor nuclear weapons between the two countries which is set to expire in February 2026.

But, Lewis said, with the US decision to exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, there are no longer any agreements between the US and Russia regulating the number or the deployment of ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.

She said short-range nuclear weapons were withdrawn and put in storage as a result of the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives but are not subject to any legal restraints.

The 10th NPT Review Conference was held in 2022 in New York. The issue of nuclear weapons threats and the targeting of nuclear power stations in Ukraine were central to the debate.

Lewis noted that a document was carefully crafted to finely balance concerns about the three pillars of the treaty – non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. But Russia withdrew its agreement on the last day of the conference, scuppering progress.

“It was believed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would likely be in Ukraine, using short range, lower yield ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons,” she said, adding that Russia is thought to have more than 1,000 in reserve.

“These would have to be taken from storage and either connected to missiles, placed in bombers, or as shell in artillery,” Lewis wrote.

Increasingly the rhetoric from Russia suggests nuclear threats are a more direct threat to NATO – not only Ukraine – and could refer to longer range, higher yield nuclear weapons.

For example in his 21 September 2022 speech, Putin accused NATO states of nuclear blackmail, referring to alleged “statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.”

Putin added: “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

There have been no expressed nuclear weapons threats from NATO states.

NATO does rely on nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence and has recently committed to significantly strengthen its longer-term deterrence and defence posture in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The current UK Labor government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to British nuclear weapons – including before the July 2024 election, according to Lewis.

Therefore, she said, any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.

Lewis concluded that depending on other intelligence and analysis – and the failure of all diplomatic attempts to dissuade Russia – NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance.