Mystery Shrouds Iran’s Downplaying of Israeli Assassinations

Funeral procession of Revolutionary Guards Colonel Sayyad Khodai on May 24 (AFP)
Funeral procession of Revolutionary Guards Colonel Sayyad Khodai on May 24 (AFP)
TT

Mystery Shrouds Iran’s Downplaying of Israeli Assassinations

Funeral procession of Revolutionary Guards Colonel Sayyad Khodai on May 24 (AFP)
Funeral procession of Revolutionary Guards Colonel Sayyad Khodai on May 24 (AFP)

A senior member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard colonel Sayyad Khodai was killed outside his home in Tehran on May 22 by unidentified gunmen on a motorbike.

In Iran, thousands grieved for Khodai and held his funeral procession, where he was remembered as a hero for fighting ISIS.

However, Israeli media focused on Khodai’s role in planning a series of terror operations against Israeli diplomats in India and Thailand. Khodai also conspired for kidnapping Israelis abroad.

For its part, Tehran blamed Israel for being behind Khodai’s assassination and vowed retaliation.

Khodai was one of seven Iranian officials and scholars who appear to have been killed since late May, but his death was the only one that Iran has officially recognized as an assassination carried out by Israel.

There is little doubt among US, Iranian and Israeli analysts and former security officials that the assassination is part of a clandestine shadow war between the two rival countries.

Nearly all the Iranians who died recently—a geologist, two engineers, and two members of the Revolutionary Guards' space unit—appear to be linked to either Iran's nuclear facilities or the military infrastructure that Tehran uses to employ its proxies.

“Israel never acknowledges that it has acted to kill Iranians, but it is typically assumed that the Israelis have been responsible for a number of killings and attacks,” Dennis Ross, a Middle East negotiator who has worked for several US presidents, told Foreign Policy.

“That is certainly the case with the killing of officials linked to the Revolutionary Guards or scientists driving the Iranian nuclear program.”

Yet while Israel has, according to analysts, upped the ante of shadow warfare with Iran through its spike in alleged assassinations, Iranian officials appear to be underplaying the killings.

For instance, a week after Khodai’s death, Ayoob Entezari, an aerospace engineer who worked on missile-related projects at an IRGC-run research and development center in the Iranian city of Yazd, fell sick and died after returning from a dinner party, the New York Times reported.

The host of the party has since vanished. In 2019, Khodaei was photographed with then-Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, indicating he may have been an important cog in Iran’s defense machinery.

At first, a governor called Entezari “a martyr” while a city council member described his killing as a case of “biological terror.” But officials later backtracked, saying labeling Entezari a martyr was an error.

They also claimed he was not an aerospace engineer, as reports indicate, but rather an ordinary employee.

When Foreign Policy asked an Iranian analyst believed to be close to the government about the recent killings, the analyst feigned ignorance and responded with texts like “Who are they?” and suggestions that a colonel is not a very senior rank.

US and Israeli analysts believe Tehran responded this way because it was embarrassed and saw the killings as an intelligence failure amid Israel’s escalation of covert warfare.

Farzin Nadimi, an associate fellow with the Washington Institute, told Foreign Policy that the recent killings, alongside attacks on Iranian military infrastructure and cyberattacks on state-owned services, “significantly damaged Iran’s perceived deterrence” and “showed Israel’s determination and freedom of action in Iran.”



Le Pen Makes New Threat to Withdraw Support for French Government

French far-right leader and member of parliament Marine Le Pen, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party parliamentary group, talks to journalists as she leaves after a meeting with the French Prime Minister to discuss the 2025 budget bill (PLF) at the Hotel Matignon in Paris, France, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)
French far-right leader and member of parliament Marine Le Pen, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party parliamentary group, talks to journalists as she leaves after a meeting with the French Prime Minister to discuss the 2025 budget bill (PLF) at the Hotel Matignon in Paris, France, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Le Pen Makes New Threat to Withdraw Support for French Government

French far-right leader and member of parliament Marine Le Pen, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party parliamentary group, talks to journalists as she leaves after a meeting with the French Prime Minister to discuss the 2025 budget bill (PLF) at the Hotel Matignon in Paris, France, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)
French far-right leader and member of parliament Marine Le Pen, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party parliamentary group, talks to journalists as she leaves after a meeting with the French Prime Minister to discuss the 2025 budget bill (PLF) at the Hotel Matignon in Paris, France, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen issued a new threat on Monday to withdraw support for France's coalition government in a no-confidence vote, after talks with Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed to satisfy her party's demands for budget concessions.

Le Pen said nothing had changed following the discussions, and that she was not optimistic a compromise on the belt-tightening 2025 budget bill could be reached.

"Nothing appears less certain," she told reporters.

The Senate was set to debate on Monday following its rejection by lawmakers in the National Assembly after revisions by lawmakers in the lower house.

Opposition parties are threatening to topple Barnier's government as it seeks approval for the budget, and his fragile coalition relies on her National Rally (RN) party for its survival.

The government is seeking to squeeze 60 billion euros ($62.85 billion) in savings through tax increases and spending cuts to reduce the deficit to 5% of economic output next year from over 6% this year.

National Rally has said it will support the efforts to oust the government if certain demands are not met. Le Pen said last week that the RN opposes increasing the tax burden on households, entrepreneurs or pensioners, and that so far these demands were not reflected in the budget bill.

LEGAL PROBLEMS

Le Pen's own political future is also under threat, with prosecutors seeking a mandatory five-year ban from politics for her alleged role in an embezzlement scheme. Le Pen denies the allegations.

Some analysts have suggested her legal problems may accelerate her plans to bring down the government,

Barnier's struggles to secure approval for the budget have fueled speculation he will invoke article 49.3 of the constitution, which allows the text to be adopted without a vote. Such a move could trigger a no-confidence motion against the government.

"It is true that we find very little quality in this budget and very little time for the government to try to increase its qualities and reduce its defects," Le Pen said.

Barnier was also due to meet other political leaders on Monday to seek a compromise on the budget bill. A final vote on the overall budget is scheduled for Dec. 12.