Recession Fears Drag on Euro and Crude, Asian Markets Mixed

People wear face masks as they shop at the Nordstrom Local DTLA downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday, March 15, 2022. Inflation is at a 40-year high. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
People wear face masks as they shop at the Nordstrom Local DTLA downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday, March 15, 2022. Inflation is at a 40-year high. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
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Recession Fears Drag on Euro and Crude, Asian Markets Mixed

People wear face masks as they shop at the Nordstrom Local DTLA downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday, March 15, 2022. Inflation is at a 40-year high. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
People wear face masks as they shop at the Nordstrom Local DTLA downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday, March 15, 2022. Inflation is at a 40-year high. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Crude extended the week's losses Thursday, while the euro struggled to recover from 20-year lows and equities were mixed as recession fears continued to cast a pall across trading floors.

Expectations for a contraction in some of the world's leading economies, including China, where a new Covid-19 flare-up has generated angst, have increased in recent weeks owing to central bank interest rate hikes aimed at taming decades-high inflation, AFP said.

The surge in inflation has been caused by soaring energy costs and rising post-lockdown demand, but observers said concerns about a contraction -- along with signs that consumers were being put off by high prices -- were weighing on the oil market.

Both main contracts were down more than one percent Thursday and have fallen about 10 percent this month. They are now below $100 for the first time since April.

Data on Wednesday showed US demand appeared to be waning as stockpiles rose, confounding expectations for a drop, while there are also some concerns that the China outbreaks -- including another spike in Shanghai -- could see major cities put into lockdown again.

Still, Vandana Hari, of Vanda Insights, said prices would likely rebound.

"There isn't much rational assessment going on -- it's panic selling," she said. "The fears may not end but could get brushed aside when supply constraints are back to the fore. The market balance is tight."

While the drop in prices could temper inflation and give central banks some room to ease up on their rate hike cycle, the Federal Reserve remains on course for several more increases.

On Wednesday, minutes from its June policy meeting indicated officials were set for another three-quarter-point rate hike this month -- after the first such lift in 28 years in June -- saying they were worried "inflation pressures had yet to show signs of abating".

They also noted a need to maintain credibility among Americans, saying there was "a significant risk... that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee".

The increases were likely to continue through to the end of the year, the minutes showed.

Despite the prospect of higher borrowing costs, Wall Street's three main indexes ended on a positive note.

But Asia struggled to pick up the baton, with the region's markets mixed.

Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei and Jakarta all rose but Hong Kong, Singapore, Wellington and Manila fell.

The Fed's determination to ramp up rates has sent the dollar soaring against most other currencies, with the euro particularly under pressure due to the European Central Bank's much slower response to the spike in prices.

The single currency hit a 20-year low against the greenback this week, with fears for the eurozone economy growing as it faces a severe energy crunch owing to sanctions on Russia, while there is a possibility Moscow will cut off its gas supplies.

And while the ECB has said it will start hiking rates this month, analysts said there was a lot of uncertainty, as officials had to balance supporting the currency with avoiding a fragmentation, in which members' borrowing costs diverge too much.

Now there is a growing belief the euro will fall to parity with the dollar within weeks.

"I'm getting really worried about the recent speeches that have come out the past couple of days that show that there are a lot of concerns and a lot of disagreement" within the ECB governing council, said Vasileios Gkionakis of Citigroup.

"If the ECB wants to tame inflation and support exchange rates ... then it needs to do two things: hike rates and come up with an effective anti-fragmentation mechanism," he told Bloomberg.

And Kit Juckes at Societe Generale added that the currency "remains effectively unbuyable this summer".

"Europe's energy dependency on Russia is falling, but not fast enough to avoid recession if the (gas) pipeline is closed. If that happens, the (euro) will likely lose another 10 percent or so."

- Key figures at around 0300 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 26,298.66 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.6 percent at 21,459.42

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,356.82

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0193 from $1.0186 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.1937 from $1.1921

Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.40 pence from 85.43 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 135.64 yen from 135.93 yen

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $97.54 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 1.1 percent at $99.54 per barrel

New York - Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 31,037.68 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 1.2 percent at 7,107.77 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.