‘Sacred Duty’: Inflation Eats Into Turkey’s Muslim Feast

Turks who make a living raising animals and selling them on open markets fear their business model may soon collapse Yasin AKGUL AFP
Turks who make a living raising animals and selling them on open markets fear their business model may soon collapse Yasin AKGUL AFP
TT

‘Sacred Duty’: Inflation Eats Into Turkey’s Muslim Feast

Turks who make a living raising animals and selling them on open markets fear their business model may soon collapse Yasin AKGUL AFP
Turks who make a living raising animals and selling them on open markets fear their business model may soon collapse Yasin AKGUL AFP

With inflation in Turkey galloping, the sheep Gul Er buys every year for the Muslim festival of sacrifice in Istanbul looks agonizingly out of reach.

Prices have doubled or even tripled since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan began an unorthodox economic experiment last year that has seen Turks' living standards suffer.

The young mother hopes to bargain down the price on one of the skimpiest-looking animals at a livestock fair held under white tents in a conservative corner of the city before the Kurban Bayrami (Eid al-Adha in Arabic) holiday.

"It is a sacred duty," she said of buying a sheep, which along with oxen and goats are sacrificed in the name of Allah, with the meat traditionally shared with the poor, friends and neighbors.

"But this year, prices are unaffordable," Er said, the stench of thousands of animals mixing with the sounds of haggling in the heavy summer air, ahead of Saturday's first full day of festivities.

According to AFP, annual inflation in Turkey has officially reached 78.6 percent, although economists and many ordinary Turks doubt government data.

Even if the official figures are to be believed, that is higher than in any other emerging market and nearly 10 times the record levels rocking the European Union, where the cost of living is unleashing political crises.

An independent survey prepared by the ENAG group -- and believed by most Turks -- puts the annual inflation rate at 175 percent.

Besides clouding Erdogan's chances in next year's election, these figures spell trouble for the merchants at the Istanbul animal fair.

Turkey's agricultural chambers union chief Semsi Bayraktar expects sales to fall by a quarter this year.

Galip Toklu, a breeder who came to the 40,000-square-metre (10-acre) fair from the Black Sea city of Samsun, listed the ways inflation snowballs into seemingly endless problems.

The cost of animal feed has quadrupled while the amount he pays to drive his livestock to Istanbul has tripled since the last Kurban Bayrami, forcing Toklu to double the price of his meat.

"Last year, I sold 500 kilos (1,100 pounds) of beef for 20,000 liras. This year, I set my prices at 45,000 liras," he said.

Yet few can now afford Toklu's beef, while selling it any cheaper could put him out of business.

"Customers are unavoidably upset," he said, his face sullen under a wide-brimmed hat.

While this year's animal fair looks huge, its 160 tents are a fraction of the 500 erected in past years.

As the fair winds down, breeder Sinas Ates looks despondent, having failed to make a single sale in two days. Livestock farming in Turkey is "finished", he grumbled.

Just like the sacrifice of sheep, Erdogan's economic experiment -- dubbed "Erdonomics" by skeptical global markets -- is also linked to his faith.

Erdogan cites Islamic proscriptions on usury to justify his refusal to raise interest rates to fight inflation.

High interest rates cause prices to rise, according to Erdogan's logic, which contradicts accepted economic orthodoxy.

So Erdogan has pushed the central bank to set interest rates even lower. Analysts at Capital Economics in London see the possibility of a crash of the lira as "a major risk".

At the market, Salih Yeter has responded to the crisis by coming out to look for the perfect sheep with seven friends, who will all contribute to the purchase.

"People usually can't afford to eat meat," the 57-year-old said, adding that giving away meat to the poor is particularly important in times of trouble.

The price of food has soared by 93 percent in the past year, according to official data, with meat prices pushing even higher.

This is especially painful for Er, whose daughter has a metabolic condition that restricts her to a meat diet.

"I can't even respect my daughter's diet," the mother whispered.

But respect for the holy holiday's traditions is binding, said Selahattin Kose, a "hajji" (one who has made the pilgrimage to Makkah), from the eastern city of Erzurum.

"Prices have doubled, but we have to deal with it," Kose said. "It's Allah's orders."



Japan's Demand-Led Inflation Slows, Clouds BOJ Rate Hike Path

 People visit Ameya-Yokocho shopping street in the Ueno area of Tokyo on June 19, 2024. (AFP)
People visit Ameya-Yokocho shopping street in the Ueno area of Tokyo on June 19, 2024. (AFP)
TT

Japan's Demand-Led Inflation Slows, Clouds BOJ Rate Hike Path

 People visit Ameya-Yokocho shopping street in the Ueno area of Tokyo on June 19, 2024. (AFP)
People visit Ameya-Yokocho shopping street in the Ueno area of Tokyo on June 19, 2024. (AFP)

Japan's core inflation accelerated in May due to energy levies but an index that strips away the effect of fuel slowed for the ninth straight month, data showed on Friday, complicating the central bank's decision on how soon to raise interest rates.

The slowdown in so-called "core core" inflation, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a key gauge of demand-driven price moves, casts doubt on the bank's view that rising wages will underpin consumption and keep inflation on track to durably hit its 2% target.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food, rose 2.5% in May from a year earlier, government data showed, accelerating from the previous month's 2.2% gain due largely to a hike in the renewable energy levy. It was roughly in line with a median market forecast for a 2.6% gain.

But inflation as measured by an index stripping away both fresh food and fuel slowed to 2.1% in May from 2.4% in April, marking the lowest year-on-year increase since September 2022.

Private-sector service inflation slowed to 2.2% in May from 2.4% in the previous month, suggesting companies remained cautious about passing on labor costs.

"The Bank of Japan has been arguing that the strong pay hikes agreed upon in this year's spring wage negotiations will eventually provide a boost to services inflation, but so far there's little evidence of that happening," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.

A renewed rise in crude oil prices and the boost to import costs from a weak yen muddle the outlook for inflation.

Analysts expect core CPI to accelerate near 3% later this month due to rising raw material costs. But such pressure could hurt consumption and discourage firms from hiking prices, hampering the BOJ's efforts to keep underlying, demand-driven inflation durably around its 2% target.

"Real wage growth remains weak in Japan and there's no data confirming that demand-driven inflation is accelerating," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research.

"The BOJ probably won't raise rates again at least until October-December this year," he said.

The BOJ exited negative rates and bond yield control in March in a landmark shift away from a decade-long, radical stimulus program.

With inflation exceeding its 2% target for two years, it has also dropped hints that it will raise short-term rates to levels that neither cool nor overheat the economy - seen by analysts as somewhere between 1-2%.

Many economists expect the BOJ to raise interest rates to 0.25% this year, though they are divided on whether it will come in July or later in the year.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank will raise rates if it becomes more convinced that inflation will durably hit 2% backed by robust domestic demand and higher wages.

Recent weak signs in consumption remain a concern. Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter due in part to a 0.7% drop in consumption as rising living costs discourage households from boosting spending.