Numbers Highlight Lebanon’s Collapse During Aoun’s Tenure

Lebanon's President Michel Aoun giving a televised speech at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, on May 14, 2022 on the eve of parliamentary elections. (Dalati & Nohra)
Lebanon's President Michel Aoun giving a televised speech at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, on May 14, 2022 on the eve of parliamentary elections. (Dalati & Nohra)
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Numbers Highlight Lebanon’s Collapse During Aoun’s Tenure

Lebanon's President Michel Aoun giving a televised speech at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, on May 14, 2022 on the eve of parliamentary elections. (Dalati & Nohra)
Lebanon's President Michel Aoun giving a televised speech at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, on May 14, 2022 on the eve of parliamentary elections. (Dalati & Nohra)

Less than two months before the constitutional date that allows for the election of a new president for Lebanon, the severe economic and financial crisis that the country has been witnessing since the fall of 2019 continues to worsen.

The devaluation of the Lebanese currency, which has lost more than 90 percent of its value, is reflected in all aspects of life and is leading to soaring prices and increasing poverty among the Lebanese, the vast majority of whom are still receiving their salaries in Lebanese pounds.

When Aoun was elected president in 2016, one US dollar was equivalent to 1,500 LBP. Today, the rate is ranging between LBP 28,000-30,000 for one dollar. Experts are unanimously in agreement that a set of economic and political factors have caused the collapse, including the corrupt system of power that is based on sectarian quotas, in addition to incorrect financial policies that enjoyed political cover.

Former member of Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Lawyer Antoine Nasrallah, believes that the president “bears part of the responsibility for the collapse by not having any plan to manage and overcome the crisis.”

According to Nasrallah, Aoun did not have a vision to deal with the new reality after the decision to default on the Eurobonds. He also covered the random government subsidy policy that led to the depletion of the reserves of the Central Bank.

The president has also failed to adopt a clear foreign policy even though the foreign ministers under his tenure were all affiliated with his political camp, according to the former FPM official.

He pointed that a recent decree, which was issued to earmark financial aid to charitable organizations, was also based on evident political quotas.

Furthermore, Aoun and his political team have failed to accomplish significant reforms, “despite having the largest parliamentary and ministerial blocs,” added Nasrallah.

They have “obstructed the formation of the government more than once, not because of a dispute over a political project, but because of a struggle over shares,” he underlined.

Although the crisis erupted in 2019 after the October 17 popular uprising, experts confirm that its features had started to appear much earlier.

“All economic and financial analysts were aware that Lebanon was on the verge of a major economic crisis,” says Dr. Layal Mansour, a researcher in economic and financial affairs and a university professor.

She told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Several indicators confirmed that Lebanon was heading towards collapse, mainly due to the high interest on bank deposits in Lebanese pounds… The dollar’s reserve relative to foreign deposits was also suggesting that the situation is abnormal.”

Mansour noted that the financial engineering that took place in 2016 was the first indicator of the crisis.

“Those concerned with the financial situation were giving artificial doses of oxygen to the country at a very high cost,” she emphasized.

The actual collapse has not yet begun, warned Mansour.

“It will start with the announcement of the fate of bank deposits... The crisis is severe and strong, and the exchange rate crisis is unlike any other; it cannot be treated separately.”

She added: “Unfortunately, we are expecting the worst… Lebanon will remain for years dependent on foreign funds and loans, and the middle class will subsequently disappear.”

Lebanon is witnessing an unprecedented economic collapse that the World Bank has ranked among the worst in the world since the mid-19th century, accompanied by the disintegration of the main pillars of the prevailing political-economic model in the country since the end of the civil war (1975-90). It’s mainly reflected in the collapse of basic public services.

About 80 percent of the Lebanese people fell below the poverty line with the intensification of the crisis.

The unemployment rate has risen nearly three times as a result of the economic collapse, according to a recent survey by the Lebanese government and United Nations.

The Central Administration of Statistics in Lebanon and the International Labor Organization noted in a press release that the unemployment rate in Lebanon increased from 11.4 percent in the period between 2018 and 2019 to 29.6 percent in January 2022.

All of the above has led to a rise in the number of emigrants. According to Beirut-based Information International, the number of those who left the country in 2021 reached 79,134 people, compared to 17,721 in 2020, which is an increase of 346 percent.

In addition, the scarcity of fuel leads to continuous power outages. The electrical supply is often limited to one hour per day, affecting all other services, such as water and communications.

“There is no way out of the current crisis except through the implementation of the recovery plan and the restructuring of public administrations, starting with Electricité du Liban [state-owned power company],” Financial and Economic Expert Walid Abu Sleiman told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Without any radical reform measures, the situation will worsen as the poverty rate topped 85 percent. This may lead to a social explosion,” he warned.



Arab League: Gaza ‘Is Not for Sale’

Abu Al-Gheit during the meeting of the Economic and Social Council (Arab League)
Abu Al-Gheit during the meeting of the Economic and Social Council (Arab League)
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Arab League: Gaza ‘Is Not for Sale’

Abu Al-Gheit during the meeting of the Economic and Social Council (Arab League)
Abu Al-Gheit during the meeting of the Economic and Social Council (Arab League)

The Arab League has reiterated its firm opposition to any attempts to displace Palestinians. Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit declared on Thursday that Gaza “is not for sale” and called for an “emergency relief plan” to support the Palestinian people.

Speaking at the opening session of the 115th ministerial meeting of the Economic and Social Council at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo, Aboul Gheit emphasized the fast-moving developments in the Arab region.

He condemned Israel’s ongoing expansionist policies in the West Bank and the repositioning of its military forces, as well as rising calls from Israeli and American voices advocating for the forced displacement of Palestinians.

He reaffirmed the Arab League’s unwavering stance, rejecting any attempts to remove Palestinians from their land under any pretext.

The Arab official also warned that such actions constitute a clear violation of international law, an infringement on Palestinian rights, and a direct threat to the Palestinian cause, which he described as “the central issue of the Arab world.”

“Gaza is not for sale,” Aboul Gheit stated. “For Palestinians and Arab nations alike, it is an inseparable part of the future Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, alongside the West Bank, with no separation between them, in line with the internationally recognized two-state solution.”

Palestinian Minister of Economy Mohammed Al-Amour also said: “Any talk of displacing our people from Gaza or the West Bank is nothing but an illusion that has no place in reality.”

He praised the steadfast Arab position in rejecting any attempts to undermine the Palestinian cause, stating: “Gaza will not break, and Palestine will never surrender.”

Al-Amour also commended Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan for their firm stance against forced displacement and their support for Palestinian statehood.

“Our people are not excess baggage, nor can they be forcibly removed,” he asserted. “Palestine is neither for sale nor for trade.”

The Economic and Social Council meeting comes amid widespread regional and international condemnation of US President Donald Trump’s proposal to “take control of Gaza” and transform it into what he described as the “Middle East Riviera.”

His plan also suggested that Egypt and Jordan should accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza—an idea that Cairo and Amman have repeatedly rejected, viewing it as an attempt to erase the Palestinian cause.

Regarding the situation in Gaza, Aboul Gheit stressed the need for continued and effective Arab action on all international and regional fronts—politically, economically, and socially—to mitigate the devastating consequences of Israeli crimes.

He stated that Israel’s war, which began in October 2023, has yet to reveal its full toll. “Beyond the human losses, this is the costliest war in every sense. The material devastation is immense, and the psychological scars left on the Arab consciousness will take years to heal,” he said.

Aboul Gheit urged the Economic and Social Council to adopt emergency relief plans to support the Palestinian people. He also called for clear mechanisms to ensure the coordinated and comprehensive implementation of these plans, as well as the effective management of Arab aid efforts.