More Protests or Fresh Polls? Iraq Mulls Political Paralysis

Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
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More Protests or Fresh Polls? Iraq Mulls Political Paralysis

Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)

The storming of Iraq's parliament by hundreds of supporters of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has piled pressure on his political opponents working to form a government nearly 10 months after an election.

"Neither side is willing to make any concessions," political scientist Ali al-Baidar said Thursday, one day after crowds breached Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone and staged a parliamentary sit-in, waving flags and demanding change.

The protests are the latest challenge for oil-rich Iraq, which remains mired in a political and a socioeconomic crisis despite soaring energy prices.

Is Iraq heading towards more protests and a deepening crisis? Or will it be obliged to hold fresh polls?

What were protests about?

Sadr's bloc won 73 seats in October last year, making it the largest faction in the 329-seat parliament.

But it was still far short of a majority.

In multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, the formation of governments has involved complex negotiations since the 2003 US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein.

By convention, the post of prime minister goes to a leader from Iraq's Shiite population.

Sadr had initially supported the idea of a "majority government".

That would have sent his Shiite adversaries from the pro-Iran Coordination Framework into opposition.

The Coordination Framework draws lawmakers from former premier Nouri al-Maliki's party and the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, the political arm of the Shiite-led former paramilitary group Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

But last month Sadr's 73 lawmakers quit in a move seen as seeking to pressure his rivals to fast-track the establishment of a government.

Sixty-four new lawmakers were sworn in later in June, making the pro-Iran bloc the largest in parliament.

On Wednesday, Sadr's supporters stormed parliament to protest at Coordination Framework's nomination for prime minister, Mohammed al-Sudani.

It was clear message from Sadr to his rivals "that there will be no government... without his agreement," said the political scientist Baidar.

"Via the masses, he signifies that he is an active player in the political landscape, that all must respect his positions and opinions, that nothing can be done without Sadr's blessing."

Can the rivals agree?

"This is going to be longest government formation process," said Renad Mansour of British think tank Chatham House.

Mansour said the protests were Sadr's warning that he aims to "use street power to bring down his opponents' attempts to form a government".

The protesters on Wednesday left peacefully after nearly two hours inside parliament -- after Sadr issued messages calling for them to go home, saying they had "terrorized the corrupt".

But it was far from the first Sadr has encourage protest to show his strength on the streets.

Earlier this month, hundreds of thousands of Muslim worshippers loyal to Sadr attended a Friday prayer service in Baghdad in a display of political might.

Baidar fears "the situation is heading for further escalation," noting that Sadr's rivals are in a tough position too.

"The Coordination Framework risks being weakened if it presents an alternative candidate to satisfy Sadr", he argued.

But Mansour said the Framework was riven with "many internal rivalries".

Some members are "worried about working without Sadr" because without his backing, such protests as happened on Wednesday "would become a reality to the future government, when and if it is eventually formed."

Will there be fresh elections?

One option could be to hold fresh elections.

"That's definitely something that has become more realistic after the recent developments," said Mansour.

"The Sadrists are hoping that by showing themselves as an opposition force instead of being in the government... could actually attract more votes."

But political scientist Ihsan al-Shammari, from the University of Baghdad, said that under pressure from Sadr, the current assembly could be paralyzed.

"Part of Sadr's strategy is to besiege parliament," he said, suggesting Sadrists could organize a sit-in at parliament or launch a campaign of civil disobedience.

Storming parliament was "only the first step," said Shammari. "The message is clear, Sadr and his supporters are ready to go further than that."



Palestinians Say 100,000 Residents Trapped in Israel's North Gaza Assault

Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
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Palestinians Say 100,000 Residents Trapped in Israel's North Gaza Assault

Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo

Israeli tanks thrust deeper on Monday into two north Gaza towns and a historic refugee camp, trapping around 100,000 civilians, the Palestinian emergency service said, in what the military said were operations to root out regrouping Hamas fighters.

The Israeli military said soldiers captured around 100 suspected Hamas fighters in a raid into Kamal Adwan hospital in the Jabalia camp. Hamas and medics have denied any militant presence at the hospital, Reuters reported.

The Gaza Strip's health ministry said at least 19 people were killed by Israeli airstrikes and bombardment on Monday, 13 of them in the north of the shattered coastal territory.

The Palestinian Civil Emergency Service said around 100,000 people were marooned in Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun without medical or food supplies.

The emergency service said its operations had ground to a halt because of the three-week-long Israeli assault back into the north, an area where the military said it had wiped out viable Hamas combat forces earlier in the year-long war.

As talks led by the US, Egypt and Qatar to broker a ceasefire resumed on Sunday after multiple abortive attempts, Egypt's president proposed an initial two-day truce to exchange four Israeli hostages of Hamas for some Palestinian prisoners, to be followed by talks within 10 days on a permanent ceasefire.

There was no public comment from Israel or Hamas, who have stuck to irreconcilable conditions for ending the war.

Gaza's war has kindled wider Middle East conflict, raising fears of global instability, with Israeli forces invading south Lebanon to stop Hezbollah rocketing northern Israel in support of fellow Iran-backed militant group Hamas in Gaza.

It has also triggered rare direct clashes between Middle East arch-foes Israel and Iran. At the weekend, Israeli warplanes pounded missiles sites in Iran in retaliation for an Oct. 1 Iranian missile volley at Israel.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday Tehran would "use all available tools" to respond to Israel's weekend attack.

- ISRAELI RAID INTO NORTH GAZA HOSPITAL

North Gaza's three hospitals, where officials refused orders by the Israeli army to evacuate, said they were hardly operating. At least two had been damaged by Israeli fire during the assault and run out of medical, food and fuel stocks.

At least one doctor, a nurse and two child patients had died in those hospitals due to a lack of treatment in the past week.

On Monday, the Gaza health ministry said there was only one of roughly 70 medical staff - a paediatrician - was left at Kamal Adwan Hospital after Israel "detained and expelled" the others.

The Israeli military said soldiers who raided the hospital "apprehended approximately 100 terrorists from the compound, including terrorists who attempted to escape during the evacuation of civilians. Inside the hospital, they found weapons, terror funds, and intelligence documents".

North Gaza residents said Israeli forces were besieging schools and other shelters housing displaced families, ordering them out before rounding up men and ushering women and children out of the area towards Gaza City and the south.

'NONSENSE TALK OF CEASEFIRE'

Only a few families headed to southern Gaza as the majority preferred to relocate temporarily in Gaza City, fearing they could otherwise never regain access to their homes.

Some said they had written their death notices in case they died from the constant bombardment, saying they would prefer death to displacement.

"While the world is busy with Lebanon and new nonsense talk about a few days of ceasefire (in Gaza), the Israeli occupation is wiping out north Gaza and displacing its people," a resident of Jabalia told Reuters by a chat app.

"(But) neither (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu nor Eiland will be able to take us out of northern Gaza."

Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, was the lead author of a much-debated proposal dubbed "the generals' plan" that would see Israel rapidly clear northern Gaza of civilians before starving out surviving Hamas fighters by cutting off their water and food supplies.

This month's Israeli tank assault drew Palestinian accusations that the military has embraced Eiland's concept, which he envisaged as a short-term step to defeat Hamas in the north but which Palestinians fear is meant to clear the area for good to carve out a buffer zone for the military after the war.

The Israeli military has denied pursuing any such plan. It says its forces operate in keeping with international law and that it targets militants who hide among the civilian population which they use as human shields, a charge Hamas denies.

North Gaza was the first part of the enclave to be hammered by Israel's ground offensive into the territory after Hamas' cross-border attack on Oct. 7, 2023, with intensive bombing largely flattening towns like Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya.

Nevertheless, Hamas-led fighters continue to attack Israeli forces in hit-and-run operations with anti-tank rockets, mortar salvoes and bombs planted in buildings, streets and other areas where they anticipate Israeli forces taking up positions.

The war erupted after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7 last year, taking more than 250 hostages, by Israeli tallies.

The death toll from Israel's retaliatory air and ground onslaught in Gaza has reached 43,020, the Gaza health ministry said in an update on Monday, with the densely populated enclave widely reduced to rubble.