More Protests or Fresh Polls? Iraq Mulls Political Paralysis

Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
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More Protests or Fresh Polls? Iraq Mulls Political Paralysis

Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)

The storming of Iraq's parliament by hundreds of supporters of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has piled pressure on his political opponents working to form a government nearly 10 months after an election.

"Neither side is willing to make any concessions," political scientist Ali al-Baidar said Thursday, one day after crowds breached Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone and staged a parliamentary sit-in, waving flags and demanding change.

The protests are the latest challenge for oil-rich Iraq, which remains mired in a political and a socioeconomic crisis despite soaring energy prices.

Is Iraq heading towards more protests and a deepening crisis? Or will it be obliged to hold fresh polls?

What were protests about?

Sadr's bloc won 73 seats in October last year, making it the largest faction in the 329-seat parliament.

But it was still far short of a majority.

In multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, the formation of governments has involved complex negotiations since the 2003 US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein.

By convention, the post of prime minister goes to a leader from Iraq's Shiite population.

Sadr had initially supported the idea of a "majority government".

That would have sent his Shiite adversaries from the pro-Iran Coordination Framework into opposition.

The Coordination Framework draws lawmakers from former premier Nouri al-Maliki's party and the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, the political arm of the Shiite-led former paramilitary group Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

But last month Sadr's 73 lawmakers quit in a move seen as seeking to pressure his rivals to fast-track the establishment of a government.

Sixty-four new lawmakers were sworn in later in June, making the pro-Iran bloc the largest in parliament.

On Wednesday, Sadr's supporters stormed parliament to protest at Coordination Framework's nomination for prime minister, Mohammed al-Sudani.

It was clear message from Sadr to his rivals "that there will be no government... without his agreement," said the political scientist Baidar.

"Via the masses, he signifies that he is an active player in the political landscape, that all must respect his positions and opinions, that nothing can be done without Sadr's blessing."

Can the rivals agree?

"This is going to be longest government formation process," said Renad Mansour of British think tank Chatham House.

Mansour said the protests were Sadr's warning that he aims to "use street power to bring down his opponents' attempts to form a government".

The protesters on Wednesday left peacefully after nearly two hours inside parliament -- after Sadr issued messages calling for them to go home, saying they had "terrorized the corrupt".

But it was far from the first Sadr has encourage protest to show his strength on the streets.

Earlier this month, hundreds of thousands of Muslim worshippers loyal to Sadr attended a Friday prayer service in Baghdad in a display of political might.

Baidar fears "the situation is heading for further escalation," noting that Sadr's rivals are in a tough position too.

"The Coordination Framework risks being weakened if it presents an alternative candidate to satisfy Sadr", he argued.

But Mansour said the Framework was riven with "many internal rivalries".

Some members are "worried about working without Sadr" because without his backing, such protests as happened on Wednesday "would become a reality to the future government, when and if it is eventually formed."

Will there be fresh elections?

One option could be to hold fresh elections.

"That's definitely something that has become more realistic after the recent developments," said Mansour.

"The Sadrists are hoping that by showing themselves as an opposition force instead of being in the government... could actually attract more votes."

But political scientist Ihsan al-Shammari, from the University of Baghdad, said that under pressure from Sadr, the current assembly could be paralyzed.

"Part of Sadr's strategy is to besiege parliament," he said, suggesting Sadrists could organize a sit-in at parliament or launch a campaign of civil disobedience.

Storming parliament was "only the first step," said Shammari. "The message is clear, Sadr and his supporters are ready to go further than that."



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.