What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
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What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)

A power struggle in Iraq between the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has escalated with his supporters breaking into parliament and beginning an open-ended sit-in protest.

The tussle over who gets to form the next government has deepened a fissure in the Shiite community that has dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

What is the background to the rivalry, why has it escalated, what does this mean for Iraq and what are the risks of violence?

Who are Sadr and his rivals?

Heir to a prominent clerical dynasty, Sadr is a populist with a fiercely loyal support base and a track record of radical action, including fighting US forces after the invasion and clashing with Iraqi authorities.

He commanded a powerful militia, the Mehdi Army, in the years after the invasion, but officially disbanded it in 2008. Its successor, the Peace Brigades, retains thousands of armed fighters.

He exercises big sway in the state, where his supporters hold many positions. He has emphasized his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist in recent years, opposing the influence of both the United States and Iran.

His Shiite rivals form an alliance called the Coordination Framework, which includes Tehran-aligned politicians such as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran.

Each side accuses the other of corruption.

Why has the standoff escalated?

Tensions have worsened since an October election in which Sadr's movement emerged as the biggest bloc with 74 of parliament's 329 seats and the Iran-backed factions' share slumped to 17 from a previous 48.

After failing to overturn the result in the courts, the Iran-backed factions set about stymying Sadr's efforts to form a government that would include his Kurdish and Sunni Arab allies but exclude groups he described as corrupt or loyal to Tehran.

Despite their diminished numbers in parliament, the Iran-aligned groups managed to frustrate Sadr by denying the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a Kurdish head of state - the first step towards forming a government.

Frustrated at the deadlock, Sadr instructed his lawmakers to quit parliament in June. The move ceded dozens of seats to the Coordination Framework, meaning it could try to form a government of its choosing, though this would risk Sadr's wrath.

Eyeing a comeback, Sadr rival Maliki put himself forward to be prime minister - a post that must go to a Shiite in Iraq's political system - but retreated after Sadr criticized him on Twitter.

Sadr's rivals then floated another candidate, Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani, seen by Sadr's supporters as a Maliki loyalist. This step appears to have been the final straw for Sadr supporters, igniting the protests.

What does this mean for Iraq?

Iraq has now gone more than nine months without a new government - a record in the post-Saddam era.

The standoff adds to political dysfunction in a country suffering dire public services, high poverty and widespread unemployment despite huge oil wealth and no major conflict since ISIS’s defeat five years ago.

At a time when soaring crude prices have boosted Iraq's oil revenues to record highs, the government has no budget for 2022 and spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reforms has been delayed.

Ordinary Iraqis meanwhile suffer power and water cuts. The World Food Program says 2.4 million of the population of 39 million are in acute need of food and livelihood assistance.

The paralysis is diverting attention from problems including soaring global food prices, drought and the lingering threat posed by ISIS.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi continues in a caretaker role for now.

What are the chances of violence?

A call by the Coordination Framework for its supporters to rally on Sunday gave rise to concerns of confrontation in the streets, but it then cancelled the demonstrations.

The United Nations has called for a de-escalation, saying "voices of reason and wisdom are critical to prevent further violence". Many Iraqi leaders have also called for the preservation of civil peace.

Sadr has vowed peaceful political action, but is backed up by the armed Peace Brigades and many of his civilian followers keep weapons, stoking fears of armed clashes if the standoff escalates.

Conflict among Iraqi Shiites would be bad news for Iran, which has carved out major influence in Iraq through its Shiite allies since the United States toppled its foe Saddam.

Iran, which has yet to comment on the latest developments, has previously intervened to quell internal unrest in Iraq.



Nuclear Neighbors India and Pakistan are a Step Closer To War. Here’s a Timeline of How It Happened

An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)
An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)
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Nuclear Neighbors India and Pakistan are a Step Closer To War. Here’s a Timeline of How It Happened

An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)
An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)

A gun massacre of tourists on April 22 has pushed India and Pakistan a step closer to war, marking the biggest breakdown in relations since 2019.
Conflict between India and Pakistan is not rare, with the two countries having periodically engaged in wars, clashes and skirmishes since gaining independence from British India in 1947.
What’s different about this escalation is the frequency and intensity of strikes and retaliation.
Although the US had said it would not step in, it is now offering assistance in “starting constructive talks” between India and Pakistan to avoid future conflicts. But calls for restraint from the international community have yet to make an impact.
Here’s a timeline of how the latest conflict has unfolded:
April 22 Gunmen shoot and kill at least 26 tourists at a Pahalgam resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir, a major shift in a regional conflict that has largely spared civilians. The unidentified gunmen also wound 17 other people. A group called Kashmir Resistance, which India accuses Pakistan of backing, claims the attack.
Survivors tell The Associated Press that gunmen asked people if they were Hindu and then opened fire.
April 23 India downgrades diplomatic ties, closes the only functional land border crossing, and suspends a crucial water-sharing treaty that has survived two wars and a major border skirmish between the two countries.
India launches a manhunt for the Pahalgam assailants. Pakistan denies involvement with the attack.
April 24 India and Pakistan cancel visas for each other’s nationals, setting a deadline for them to leave. In retaliation, Pakistan shuts its airspace for all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines, and suspends all trade with India, including to and from any third country.
Government ministers on both sides hint the dispute could escalate to military action.
April 25 India says its troops exchanged fire with Pakistani soldiers at the Line of Control, the de facto border dividing the disputed Kashmir region.
Pakistan warns it could suspend an agreement that established the Line of Control, in what would be a major and worrying step. The United Nations urges both sides to “exercise maximum restraint.”
April 26 Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vows his government will respond “with full force and might” to Indian attempts to stop or divert the flow of water.
Iran offers mediation, while Trump says he expects them to work out their differences. “There’s great tension between Pakistan and India, but there always has been,” he tells reporters aboard Air Force One.
April 30 Authorities in Indian-controlled Kashmir temporarily close dozens of resorts in the scenic Himalayan region after the deadly attack on tourists.
Troops from both countries exchange fire over the Line of Control for a fifth consecutive night.
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar says his government has “credible intelligence” that India intends to carry out military action against Pakistan in the next 24 to 36 hours.
May 1 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls senior officials in India and Pakistan in an effort to defuse the crisis. US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says Rubio in his call with India expressed sorrow over the killings in Pahalgam and reaffirmed the US’s “commitment to cooperation with India against terrorism."
Pakistan says Rubio emphasized the need for both sides to “continue working together for peace and stability” in South Asia.
May 3 Pakistan test-fires a ballistic missile with a range of 450 kilometers (about 280 miles). Missiles are not fired toward the border area with India; they are normally fired into the Arabian Sea or the deserts of the southwest Balochistan province.
India suspends the exchange of all mail from Pakistan through air and surface routes and bans the direct and indirect import of goods from its neighbor. It also bars Pakistani-flagged ships from entering its ports and prohibits Indian-flagged vessels from visiting Pakistani ports.
May 7 India fires missiles on Pakistan, which calls the strikes an “act of war” and vows to avenge those who died in the pre-dawn attack.
The missiles kill 31 people, including women and children, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and the country’s Punjab province. The strikes targeted at least nine sites “where terrorist attacks against India have been planned,” says India’s Defense Ministry.
Pakistan claims it downed several Indian fighter jets.
May 8 India fires attack drones into Pakistan, killing at least two civilians, the Pakistani military says. India, meanwhile, accuses its neighbor of attempting its own attack and acknowledges targeting its archrival’s air defense system.
India evacuates thousands of people from villages near the highly militarized frontier in the Kashmir region. Flights remain suspended at over two dozen airports across northern and western regions of India.
Pakistan's Punjab province announces the immediate closure of all schools and other educational institutions.
May 9 India suspends its biggest domestic cricket tournament for a week following the escalating military tensions with Pakistan. Pakistan initially says it will move its own domestic T20 tournament to the United Arab Emirates because of the crisis, but then says it will only postpone matches.
Several northern and western Indian states shut schools and other educational institutions.
US Vice President JD Vance says a potential war between India and Pakistan would be “none of our business.”
India's army says drones have been sighted in 26 locations across many areas in Indian states bordering Pakistan and Indian-controlled Kashmir, including the main city of Srinagar. The drones were tracked and engaged, it adds.
The Group of Seven nations, or G7, urge “maximum restraint” from both India and Pakistan, warning that further military escalation poses a serious threat to regional stability.
May 10 Pakistan says India has fired missiles at air bases inside the country and that retaliatory strikes are underway. The Indian missiles targeted Nur Khan air base in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad, Murid air base in Chakwal city, and Rafiqui air base in the Jhang district of eastern Punjab province, according to the Pakistani army's chief spokesperson.
Pakistan says it has fired missiles at Indian military positions.
Residents in Indian-controlled Kashmir report hearing loud explosions at multiple places in the region, including Srinagar, Jammu, and the garrison town of Udhampur.