What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
TT

What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)

A power struggle in Iraq between the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has escalated with his supporters breaking into parliament and beginning an open-ended sit-in protest.

The tussle over who gets to form the next government has deepened a fissure in the Shiite community that has dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

What is the background to the rivalry, why has it escalated, what does this mean for Iraq and what are the risks of violence?

Who are Sadr and his rivals?

Heir to a prominent clerical dynasty, Sadr is a populist with a fiercely loyal support base and a track record of radical action, including fighting US forces after the invasion and clashing with Iraqi authorities.

He commanded a powerful militia, the Mehdi Army, in the years after the invasion, but officially disbanded it in 2008. Its successor, the Peace Brigades, retains thousands of armed fighters.

He exercises big sway in the state, where his supporters hold many positions. He has emphasized his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist in recent years, opposing the influence of both the United States and Iran.

His Shiite rivals form an alliance called the Coordination Framework, which includes Tehran-aligned politicians such as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran.

Each side accuses the other of corruption.

Why has the standoff escalated?

Tensions have worsened since an October election in which Sadr's movement emerged as the biggest bloc with 74 of parliament's 329 seats and the Iran-backed factions' share slumped to 17 from a previous 48.

After failing to overturn the result in the courts, the Iran-backed factions set about stymying Sadr's efforts to form a government that would include his Kurdish and Sunni Arab allies but exclude groups he described as corrupt or loyal to Tehran.

Despite their diminished numbers in parliament, the Iran-aligned groups managed to frustrate Sadr by denying the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a Kurdish head of state - the first step towards forming a government.

Frustrated at the deadlock, Sadr instructed his lawmakers to quit parliament in June. The move ceded dozens of seats to the Coordination Framework, meaning it could try to form a government of its choosing, though this would risk Sadr's wrath.

Eyeing a comeback, Sadr rival Maliki put himself forward to be prime minister - a post that must go to a Shiite in Iraq's political system - but retreated after Sadr criticized him on Twitter.

Sadr's rivals then floated another candidate, Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani, seen by Sadr's supporters as a Maliki loyalist. This step appears to have been the final straw for Sadr supporters, igniting the protests.

What does this mean for Iraq?

Iraq has now gone more than nine months without a new government - a record in the post-Saddam era.

The standoff adds to political dysfunction in a country suffering dire public services, high poverty and widespread unemployment despite huge oil wealth and no major conflict since ISIS’s defeat five years ago.

At a time when soaring crude prices have boosted Iraq's oil revenues to record highs, the government has no budget for 2022 and spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reforms has been delayed.

Ordinary Iraqis meanwhile suffer power and water cuts. The World Food Program says 2.4 million of the population of 39 million are in acute need of food and livelihood assistance.

The paralysis is diverting attention from problems including soaring global food prices, drought and the lingering threat posed by ISIS.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi continues in a caretaker role for now.

What are the chances of violence?

A call by the Coordination Framework for its supporters to rally on Sunday gave rise to concerns of confrontation in the streets, but it then cancelled the demonstrations.

The United Nations has called for a de-escalation, saying "voices of reason and wisdom are critical to prevent further violence". Many Iraqi leaders have also called for the preservation of civil peace.

Sadr has vowed peaceful political action, but is backed up by the armed Peace Brigades and many of his civilian followers keep weapons, stoking fears of armed clashes if the standoff escalates.

Conflict among Iraqi Shiites would be bad news for Iran, which has carved out major influence in Iraq through its Shiite allies since the United States toppled its foe Saddam.

Iran, which has yet to comment on the latest developments, has previously intervened to quell internal unrest in Iraq.



Fear Grips Alawites in Syria’s Homs as Assad ‘Remnants’ Targeted

A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
TT

Fear Grips Alawites in Syria’s Homs as Assad ‘Remnants’ Targeted

A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)

In Syria's third city Homs, members of ousted president Bashar al-Assad's Alawite community say they are terrified as new authorities comb their districts for "remnants of the regime", arresting hundreds.

In central Homs, the marketplace buzzes with people buying fruit and vegetables from vendors in bombed-out buildings riddled with bullet holes.

But at the entrance to areas where the city's Alawite minority lives, armed men in fatigues have set up roadblocks and checkpoints.

People in one such neighborhood, speaking anonymously to AFP for fear of reprisals, said young men had been taken away, including soldiers and conscripts who had surrendered their weapons as instructed by the new led authorities.

Two of them said armed men stationed at one checkpoint, since dismantled after complaints, had been questioning people about the religious sect.

"We have been living in fear," said a resident of the Alawite-majority Zahra district.

"At first, they spoke of isolated incidents. But there is nothing isolated about so many of them."

- 'Majority are civilians' -

Since opposition factions led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group seized power on December 8, Syria's new leadership has repeatedly sought to reassure minorities they will not be harmed.

But Alawites fear a backlash against their sect, long associated with the Assads.

The new authorities deny wrongdoing, saying they are after former Assad forces.

Shihadi Mayhoub, a former lawmaker from Homs, said he had been documenting alleged violations in Zahra.

"So far, I have about 600 names of arrested people" in Zahra, out of more than 1,380 in the whole of Homs city, he told AFP.

Among those detained are "retired brigadiers, colonels who settled their affairs in dedicated centers, lieutenants and majors".

But "the majority are civilians and conscripted soldiers," he said.

In the district of Al-Sabil, a group of officers were beaten in front of their wives, he added.

Authorities in Homs have been responsive to residents' pleas and promised to release the detained soon, Mayhoub said, adding groups allied to the new rulers were behind the violations.

Another man in Zahra told AFP he had not heard from his son, a soldier, since he was arrested at a checkpoint in the neighboring province of Hama last week.

- 'Anger' -

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor says at least 1,800 people, overwhelmingly Alawites, have been detained in Homs city and the wider province.

Across Syria, violence against Alawites has surged, with the Britain-based Observatory recording at least 150 killings, mostly in Homs and Hama provinces.

Early in the civil war, sparked by a crackdown on democracy protests in 2011, Homs was dubbed the "capital of the revolution" by activists who dreamt of a Syria free from Assad's rule.

The crackdown was especially brutal in Homs, home to a sizeable Alawite minority, as districts were besieged and fighting ravaged its historical center, where the bloodiest sectarian violence occurred.

Today, videos circulating online show gunmen rounding up men in Homs. AFP could not verify all the videos but spoke to Mahmud Abu Ali, an HTS member from Homs who filmed himself ordering the men.

He said the people in the video were accused of belonging to pro-Assad militias who "committed massacres" in Homs during the war.

"I wanted to relieve the anger I felt on behalf of all those people killed," the 21-year-old said, adding the dead included his parents and siblings.

- 'Tired of war' -

Abu Yusuf, an HTS official involved in security sweeps, said forces had found three weapons depots and "dozens of wanted people".

Authorities said the five-day operation ended Monday, but Abu Yusuf said searches were ongoing as districts "have still not been completely cleansed of regime remnants".

"We want security and safety for all: Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, everyone," he said, denying reports of violations.

Homs lay in ruins for years after the former regime retook full control.

In Baba Amr neighborhood, an opposition bastion retaken in 2012, buildings have collapsed from bombardment or bear bullet marks, with debris still clogging streets.

After fleeing to Lebanon more than a decade ago, Fayez al-Jammal, 46, returned this week with his wife and seven children to a devastated home without doors, furniture or windows.

He pointed to the ruined buildings where neighbors were killed or disappeared, but said revenge was far from his mind.

"We are tired of war and humiliation. We just want everyone to be able to live their lives," he said.