Lebanon’s Ordeal: From Civil Strife to Economic Collapse

A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)
A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)
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Lebanon’s Ordeal: From Civil Strife to Economic Collapse

A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)
A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)

Lebanon marks the second anniversary on Thursday of the Beirut port explosion that killed 215 people and is widely seen as a symbol of corruption and bad governance by the sectarian ruling elite.

Here are some of the main crises over the past two decades in a country that has known little stability since the end of its 1975-90 civil war:

2005 Former premier Rafik al-Hariri is killed and 21 others die in a bomb attack on his motorcade in Beirut on Feb. 14.

Demonstrations erupt blaming the assassination on Syria, which deployed troops in Lebanon during the civil war and kept them there afterwards. Syria denies any role.

Syria's allies in Lebanon, who include the Iran-backed Hezbollah, stage rallies in support of Syria, but international pressure forces the troops out.

Three critics of Syria - Samir Kassir, Gebran Tueni, and George Hawi - are assassinated.

2006 In July, Hezbollah crosses the border into Israel, captures two Israeli soldiers and kills others, sparking a five-week war. At least 1,200 people in Lebanon and 158 Israelis are killed.

Tensions in Lebanon simmer over Hezbollah's arsenal.

In November, Hezbollah and its allies quit the cabinet led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and organize protests against it. Anti-Syria politician Pierre Gemayel is killed.

2007 Hezbollah and its allies maintain a sit-in protest against the Siniora government for the entire year. Anti-Syrian lawmakers Walid Eido and Antoine Ghanem are killed.

2008 A car bomb kills Wissam Eid, a police intelligence officer investigating the Hariri assassination, in January.

In May, the government outlaws Hezbollah's telecom network. Hezbollah calls this a declaration of war and its fighters take over mainly Muslim west Beirut. After mediation, rival leaders sign a deal in Qatar.

2011 A government led by Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, is toppled when Hezbollah and its allies quit due to disagreements over a UN-backed tribunal into the 2005 assassination.

2012 Hezbollah fighters deploy to Syria to aid President Bashar al-Assad in the country's war.

In October, a car bomb kills security official Wissam al-Hassan, whose intelligence service had arrested a pro-Syrian former minister charged with transporting Syrian-assembled bombs to wage attacks in Lebanon.

2013 A bomb kills ex-minister and Hariri advisor Mohamad Chatah.

2018 Hezbollah and allies win a majority in Lebanon's first parliamentary vote since 2009.

2019 Despite growing economic troubles, the government fails to enact reforms that might unlock foreign support.

In October, a decision to tax internet calls ignites mass cross-sectarian protests accusing the ruling elite of corruption and mismanagement.

Hariri quits on Oct. 29. The financial crisis accelerates. Banks largely freeze depositors out of dollar savings. The local currency begins to crash.

2020 Hassan Diab becomes prime minister in January, backed by Hezbollah and its allies.

Lebanon defaults on its sovereign debt in March. IMF talks flounder as ruling factions and banks object to a financial recovery plan.

On Aug. 4, a chemical explosion at Beirut port kills 215 people, wounds 6,000 and devastates swathes of Beirut. The Diab cabinet quits.

Hariri is designated to form a new government but cannot as parties squabble over portfolios.

A UN-backed tribunal convicts a Hezbollah member of conspiring to kill Rafik al-Hariri in 2005. Hezbollah denies any role.

2021 Poverty soars.

Hariri gives up trying to form a government, trading blame with President Michel Aoun.

In August, the central bank declares it can no longer subsidize fuel. Shortages trigger violence at filling stations.

In September, veteran politician Najib Mikati forms a government but it is paralyzed by tension over the probe into the port explosion.

Hezbollah and its ally Amal demand the removal of investigating judge after he charges some of their allies. The Shiite parties call a protest and six of their followers are shot dead when violence erupts. Hezbollah blames the Lebanese Forces (LF), the LF denies this.

The investigation stalls amid a flood of legal complaints against the judge by officials whom he has charged over the disaster.

In October, Gulf states recall their ambassadors and Saudi Arabia bans all Lebanese imports in protest at comments by a pro-Hezbollah minister that are offensive to Riyadh.

2022 In January, the pound touches a low of 34,000 against the dollar, losing more than 90% of its value since 2019. The World Bank accuses the ruling class of "orchestrating" one of the world's worst economic depressions.

Hariri declares he will not contest a parliamentary election.

In April, Lebanon reaches a draft IMF deal for a possible $3 billion in support, dependent on long-delayed reforms.

Gulf Arab ambassadors return, easing diplomatic tensions.

In May, Hezbollah and its allies lose their parliamentary majority in an election. But long-dominant parties maintain their grip, reappointing Shiite veteran politician Nabih Berri and naming Mikati to form a new government.

The outgoing government approves a financial recovery plan. But banks reject it and Hezbollah says a new one is needed.



Gemayel to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam was Assad’s Stick to Apply Pressure

Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)
Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)
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Gemayel to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam was Assad’s Stick to Apply Pressure

Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)
Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)

Late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad was a masterful negotiator, fiercely protective of his image and reputation. He was known for exhausting his guests with lengthy detours into history before addressing the substance of any talks.

Assad had an exceptional ability to restrain his anger, circling around an issue before striking again — often with calculated patience.

He avoided coarse language, allowing resentments to speak for themselves, but he never forgave those he believed had tried to derail his vision. Among them, according to accounts, were Yasser Arafat, Kamal Jumblatt, Bashir Gemayel, Amine Gemayel, and Samir Geagea.

In dealing with rivals and pressuring opponents, Assad often relied on a trusted enforcer: Abdel Halim Khaddam, his long-time foreign minister and later vice president. In the second part of his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, former Lebanese President Amine Gemayel said Khaddam was Assad’s “stick,” used to assert control.

Many Lebanese politicians believed Khaddam’s bluntness was not personal, but rather a reflection of an official mandate from his mentor.

Assad rarely issued direct threats. Instead, he preferred subtle intimidation — as when he told Gemayel that his aides had once suggested blowing up President Anwar Sadat’s plane to prevent him from reaching Jerusalem.

Khaddam, the late Syrian strongman’s long-serving envoy, was known for humiliating both allies and foes who dared defy Damascus’ directives. His tactics were often unsettling — deliberately designed to leave visitors unnerved and pliant by the time they reached Assad’s office.

In a conversation in Paris during his retirement, Khaddam defended his hardline methods, saying they were not meant to insult but to prevent potentially dangerous confrontations. “The aim was to avoid escalation that could lead to security agencies taking over, which might have resulted in worse outcomes,” he said.

In the same meeting, Khaddam accused former Lebanese President Amine Gemayel of obstructing a political solution in Lebanon, calling him “hesitant and suspicious.”

He also acknowledged Assad was caught off guard when the Tripartite Agreement collapsed. The Syrian leader, Khaddam said, had not believed anyone in Lebanon would openly defy Syria — or the other Lebanese factions who had signed the accord.

“President Assad had many cards to play. President Sarkis had none,” recalled former Lebanese Foreign Minister Fouad Boutros, reflecting on the stark imbalance between Syria and Lebanon during Elias Sarkis’s presidency.

Assad, he said, had the power to topple or paralyze the Lebanese government before Sarkis even returned to Beirut. “Sarkis had no leverage over Assad,” Boutros noted. “But while Sarkis often showed flexibility, he would stand firm when asked to compromise Lebanon’s core principles.”

Boutros, who played a key role in Lebanon’s diplomacy during the civil war, said he had to exercise utmost restraint to keep Khaddam — Syria’s often abrasive envoy — from derailing talks with personal attacks or inflammatory language.

The dynamic, he suggested, was not unique to Sarkis. It also echoed the later, uneasy relationship between Gemayel and Assad.

Gemayel recalled a cold and confrontational relationship with Khaddam, describing him as “the stick and the poison” used by Assad to pressure Beirut into submission.

“There was no warmth between us from the beginning,” Gemayel told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Khaddam used underhanded tactics to undermine the presidency and sow division within my team. While President Assad treated me with respect and politeness, he needed someone to apply pressure — and that was Khaddam,” he added.

Gemayel said Khaddam was behind all the pressure campaigns Syria waged against him — all with Assad’s full knowledge. “Assad played the courteous statesman. Khaddam handled the dirty work. Syria wanted me to sign agreements harmful to Lebanon’s interests, and Khaddam was the one tasked with forcing my hand.”

Despite Khaddam’s harsh demeanor, Gemayel said he never allowed him to overstep.

“I kept him in check. He didn’t dare cross the line with me. We were once in a meeting with President Assad, and Khaddam had been spreading ridiculous rumors beforehand. When he spoke up, I turned to Assad and said: ‘Mr. President, we have a problem with Khaddam. Please ask him to stop acting like a spy when dealing with us.’”

Khaddam, Gemayel said, tried to intimidate many Lebanese politicians — but not him.

“He was rude, even insolent to the point of absurdity. But he knew that if he said anything out of line with me, I would respond immediately.”

Assad’s Subtle Control and the Language of Minorities

Assad understood early on the fragility of Lebanon’s sectarian makeup. To him, the country was a meeting place for minorities — one that always needed an external patron to manage its wars and truces. He allowed for limited victories, but never total defeat, ensuring that no side could do without Syria’s oversight.

Assad sought to rule Syria indefinitely, with Lebanon as a backyard extension of his regime. Yet unlike his brother Rifaat, he avoided openly sectarian rhetoric or calls for partition. Rifaat, according to Gemayel, once suggested dividing both Syria and Lebanon along sectarian lines during a conversation with Lebanese leaders Walid Jumblatt and Marwan Hamadeh.

When asked whether he ever felt his dialogue with Assad was, at its core, a conversation between an Alawite and a Maronite, Gemayel replied: “No — that was Rifaat’s language. He used to say minorities must come together and show solidarity. But that narrative was never pushed by President Assad or his inner circle. It was always tailored to serve their own agenda.”

Assad’s political strategy was built on gathering leverage — and minority groups were central to that plan. His ties with Lebanon’s Druze community, and his clash with Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt, fit squarely within this framework. Assad relied on Syria’s own Druze population, as well as the Christian minority, to tighten his grip on the country’s diverse communities and align them under the banner of his regime.

“Assad had a firm hold on the minorities,” Gemayel said, adding that “he brought them all together to make them part of the Syrian system.”

Tensions between Syria’s Alawite leadership and the country’s Sunni majority were well known, Gemayel added, particularly through the candid rhetoric of Assad’s brother, Rifaat.

“Rifaat was open about the hostility between Alawites and Sunnis,” Gemayel said. “In his conversations with us, it was clear. But with President Assad, there was no visible sign of that. What lay beneath the surface, only God knows — but in our dealings with him, we never felt it.”

Gemayel Dismisses Reports of a Syria-Lebanon Confederation Proposal

Asked about longstanding claims that former Lebanese President Camille Chamoun had once proposed a confederation between Lebanon and Syria to Hafez al-Assad, Gemayel was quick to reject the idea.

“That’s absolutely not true,” he said. “President Chamoun would never have made such a proposal. A lot of things were said at the time. There were even reports that US envoy Dean Brown had suggested relocating Lebanon’s Christians to California — all of it nonsense, poetic talk with no grounding in reality.”

Gemayel also addressed one of the most controversial moments in US diplomacy during Lebanon’s 1988 presidential crisis: the phrase reportedly used by US envoy Richard Murphy — “Mikhael Daher or chaos.”

Daher, a Christian MP close to Damascus, had been floated as the only candidate acceptable to both Syria and the United States.

But Washington later distanced itself from the deal. The episode, Gemayel said, underscored a period in which American pressure aligned more with Syrian — and by extension, Israeli — interests, leaving Lebanon’s sovereignty hanging in the balance.

Gemayel confirmed that US envoy Richard Murphy did indeed issue the stark ultimatum in 1988. The phrase, which became emblematic of foreign interference in Lebanon’s presidential crisis, reflected what Gemayel described as Washington’s unwillingness to confront Damascus — despite acknowledging its destabilizing role in Lebanon.

“Yes, Murphy said it,” Gemayel affirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat.

“The Americans had a problem — they wanted Syria, and they didn’t. They knew Syria was playing a destructive role in Lebanon, but they didn’t want to challenge it. They kept trying to find common ground with Syria, not with us.”

According to Gemayel, the US saw Daher — a respected Christian parliamentarian close to Damascus — as a palatable compromise. “They thought Daher was a respectable figure who might be acceptable to the Lebanese, so they went along with Syria’s choice,” he said.

Washington, he added, had consistently prioritized pragmatism over principle in Lebanon, often aligning with whichever side could deliver results — even if it came at Beirut’s expense.

“It was the same with the May 17 Agreement with Israel,” Gemayel said, referring to the short-lived 1983 accord.

“The US couldn't pressure Israel, so Lebanon had to pay. And they couldn’t pressure Syria either — Syria was stubborn, had resources, and they didn’t want a confrontation. So they kept trying to sell us solutions that weren’t in Lebanon’s interest.”

“The Americans were always looking for the quickest deal,” he added. “They wanted to please both Syria and Israel. With Syria, it was clear — they didn’t want to upset Assad, because they knew who held the real power in Lebanon.”

Gemayel said that while he personally held the reins in decision-making and negotiations with Syria during his time in office, several close advisers and intermediaries played essential roles in laying the groundwork for dialogue with Damascus.

“The relationship and final decisions were in my hands,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“I was the one doing the actual negotiating. But when it came to preparation, the late Jean Obeid played a very valuable role. He was intelligent, committed to Lebanon’s interests, and had close ties with the Syrians. He couldn’t get everything done, but he managed to ease certain issues,” said Gemayel.

Gemayel also credited Eli Salem, another aide, for navigating delicate talks with Syrian officials — particularly with Khaddam.

“Salem had a knack for getting through on specific points,” Gemayel said. “He had good chemistry with Khaddam, and that helped, especially since Khaddam and I didn’t get along.”

One figure who unexpectedly played a constructive role, according to Gemayel, was Brigadier General Jamil al-Sayyed, then an intelligence officer stationed in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley.

“You may be surprised,” he said, “but Jamil al-Sayyed was very helpful. Whenever I was heading to Damascus, I would stop in the Bekaa to meet him. He gave me very precise insights into what was happening at the Syrian presidential palace and the broader picture in Damascus. He was well-informed, sincere, and provided intelligence that wasn’t widely available — information that truly benefited Lebanon.”

Asked whether Syria was uneasy about the role of veteran journalist and diplomat Ghassan Tueni in his administration, Gemayel said the Syrians had little affection for him.

“There was never any warmth toward Ghassan,” he said. “He came with me to Syria just once, and it was clear there was tension. Whenever he was present, things got heated. Ghassan and Khaddam were like a ping-pong match — constantly hitting the ball back and forth.”

The friction, Gemayel explained, stemmed in large part from Tueni’s association with An-Nahar, the Beirut daily he helped lead, which often published sharp criticism of Syria.

“Syria never appreciated An-Nahar,” Gemayel said. “Even if Ghassan tried to distance himself from specific articles, the content was out there for everyone to see — and the Syrians didn’t forget it.”