Tunisia’s Economy Grows 2.8% Despite Difficulties

A general view of Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters)
A general view of Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters)
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Tunisia’s Economy Grows 2.8% Despite Difficulties

A general view of Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters)
A general view of Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters)

The Tunisian economy grew 2.8 percent during the second quarter of 2022 annually, according to the National Institute of Statistics.

The Institute said the growth is due to the high value-added growth rate in the services sector, which amounted to 5.2 percent annually.

However, compared to the growth rate in the first quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.0 percent due to the decline in the construction and the industrial sector.

Tunisia has been facing a political crisis after President Kais Saied suspended most of the constitutional institutions and put a new constitution to a referendum on July 25.

The country seeks to establish a margin of stability to implement reforms demanded by international financial institutions.

After months of technical consultations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced its willingness to start formal negotiations with Tunisia for a lending program.

Meanwhile, the Tunisian trade balance recorded a deficit of $4.3 billion during the first seven months, compared to $2.7 billion during the same period in 2021, according to the National Institute.

Tunisian exports saw a 23.1 percent increase, and imports rose 31.6 percent.

The Institute revealed a decline in the unemployment rate in the country during the second quarter of this year to 15.3 percent.

The unemployment rate was 16.1 percent in the first quarter of this year and 16.2 percent in the last quarter of 2021.

Thousands of Tunisians leave the country each year due to the difficult economic situation, the faltering political transition since 2011, and the lack of job opportunities.

During the second quarter of 2022, over 626,000 Tunisians were unemployed, a third of whom are graduates, according to the National Institute of Statistics.

The Tunisian National Observatory of Migration estimates that 36,000 individuals leave the country each year due to a lack of job opportunities and low wages.



Iran’s Energy Sector: A Long History of Sanctions and Instability

Abadan oil refinery facility in southwestern Iran (Reuters)
Abadan oil refinery facility in southwestern Iran (Reuters)
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Iran’s Energy Sector: A Long History of Sanctions and Instability

Abadan oil refinery facility in southwestern Iran (Reuters)
Abadan oil refinery facility in southwestern Iran (Reuters)

Israel launched airstrikes on Iran Friday, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, and senior military commanders. The operation, which Israeli officials warned could be “prolonged,” is intended to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.

Iran’s National Oil Refining and Distribution Company confirmed that its oil refining and storage facilities were not damaged in the attacks. Similarly, the Abadan Oil Refining Company announced it was operating at full capacity with no service disruptions.

Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, pumping approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, about 3% of global output.

Sanctions and OPEC Role

Iran’s oil production peaked in the 1970s, reaching a record 6 million barrels per day in 1974, more than 10% of global supply at the time, according to OPEC data.

The first US sanctions were imposed on Tehran in 1979, and Iran has since remained under recurring waves of American and European restrictions. In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal and reimposed strict sanctions, sending Iran’s oil exports plummeting—sometimes to near zero.

Under President Joe Biden, however, exports began to climb again. Analysts say enforcement has been less aggressive, and Iran has increasingly succeeded in evading restrictions. It’s also important to note that Iran is exempt from OPEC’s production quotas.

In recent months, Iranian oil exports have surged to around 1.8 million barrels per day—the highest since 2018, fueled by strong demand from China. Beijing does not recognize unilateral sanctions against its trade partners. Private Chinese refineries remain the main buyers of Iranian crude, despite some being targeted by recent US Treasury sanctions. So far, these measures have had limited impact on the flow of Iranian oil to China.

Iran continues to skirt sanctions using tactics like ship-to-ship transfers and by concealing tanker locations.

Production and Infrastructure

Energy consultancy FGE reports that Iran refines around 2.6 million barrels per day of crude and condensates, while exporting an equivalent amount that includes crude, condensates, and refined products. Iran also produces 34 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily - about 7% of global production - all of which is consumed domestically.

Most of Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure is concentrated in the southwest: oil fields in Khuzestan, gas in Bushehr, and condensates from the massive South Pars field. About 90% of crude exports pass through Kharg Island.

While OPEC members theoretically have the capacity to offset a drop in Iranian supply, many are already operating near their limits, placing pressure on the group’s spare production capacity.