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Libya Braces for Bloody Clashes between Militias Loyal to Dbeibah, Bashagha

Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)
Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)
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Libya Braces for Bloody Clashes between Militias Loyal to Dbeibah, Bashagha

Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)
Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)

The Libyan capital Tripoli is bracing itself for bloody clashes between militias loyal to the interim Government of National Unity (GNU), headed by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, and militias loyal to the government of “stability,” headed by Fathi Bashagha.

Libya has been enmeshed in a stalemate for months after the eastern-based parliament swore in a new prime minister – Bashagha - despite the incumbent – Dbeibah - in Tripoli refusing to cede power, leading to a standoff with armed factions backing each side.

Militias loyal to the rival governments have declared mobilization and have continued to amass their forces for a new round of fighting.

Witnesses told local media that a state of emergency has been declared throughout Tripoli in anticipation of violence.

Dbeibah vowed on Thursday that no one would be allowed to meddle with the security of the capital.

In what was seen as a direct threat to Bashagha’s forces, he said “we lie in wait” for whoever attempts to undermine security.

The GNU will continue to function as it always has, he added, citing its international recognition.

He said that it will continue even after elections are held, stressing that the government is “the only guarantee to pressure parties to head to elections”.

Bashagha had recently called on Dbeibah to step down and clear the way for his government to prevent any bloodshed.

Meanwhile, chief of staff Mohammed al-Haddad, of the GNU, is monitoring the situation and plan is in place to defend the capital in case of any breach.

Drones have been seen flying over southern and western Tripoli. It is unknown who flew them.

A spokesman for the GNU forces said they were ready to defend the capital against a potential attack by the Libyan National Army, commanded by Khalifa Haftar.

On Tuesday, the United Nations Libya mission said it was deeply concerned by the ongoing mobilization of forces and threats to use force to resolve the country's political crisis.

Several shootouts have already taken place this summer between rival forces in the capital, raising the prospect of wider clashes and a return to sustained warfare after two years of comparative peace.

In Tripoli, Dbeibah was installed last year through a UN-backed process to head the GNU and oversee an election that was scheduled to be held last December.

After the election process collapsed with rival factions refusing to agree on the rules, the eastern-based parliament said Dbeibah's term had expired and it appointed Bashagha to lead a new government.

However, Dbeibah and some major factions in northwest Libya have rejected the parliament's right to replace him and he has said he will only quit after national elections.

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Arab World

How Did Iraq Survive ‘Existential Threat More Dangerous than ISIS’?

Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 
Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 
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How Did Iraq Survive ‘Existential Threat More Dangerous than ISIS’?

Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 
Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 

Diplomatic sources in Baghdad revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraqi authorities were deeply concerned about sliding into the Israeli-Iranian war, which they considered “an existential threat to Iraq even more dangerous than that posed by ISIS when it overran a third of the country’s territory.”

The sources explained that “ISIS was a foreign body that inevitably had to be expelled by the Iraqi entity, especially given the international and regional support Baghdad enjoyed in confronting it... but the war (with Israel) threatened Iraq’s unity.”

They described this “existential threat” as follows:

-When the war broke out, Baghdad received messages from Israel, conveyed via Azerbaijan and other channels, stating that Israel would carry out “harsh and painful” strikes in response to any attacks launched against it from Iraqi territory. The messages held the Iraqi authorities responsible for any such attacks originating from their soil.

-Washington shifted from the language of prior advice to direct warnings, highlighting the grave consequences that could result from any attacks carried out by Iran-aligned factions.

-Iraqi authorities feared what they described as a “disaster scenario”: that Iraqi factions would launch attacks on Israel, prompting Israel to retaliate with a wave of assassinations similar to those it conducted against Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon or Iranian generals and scientists at the start of the war.

-The sources noted that delivering painful blows to these factions would inevitably inflame the Shiite street, potentially pushing the religious authority to take a strong stance. At that point, the crisis could take on the character of a Shiite confrontation with Israel.

-This scenario raised fears that other Iraqi components would then blame the Shiite component for dragging Iraq into a war that could have been avoided. In such circumstances, the divergence in choices between the Shiite and Sunni communities could resurface, reviving the threat to Iraq’s unity.

-Another risk was the possibility that the Kurds would declare that the Iraqi government was acting as if it only represented one component, and that the country was exhausted by wars, prompting the Kurdish region to prefer distancing itself from Baghdad to avoid being drawn into unwanted conflicts.

-Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s government acted with a mix of firmness and prudence. It informed the factions it would not tolerate any attempt to drag the country into a conflict threatening its unity, while on the other hand keeping its channels open with regional and international powers, especially the US.

-Iraqi authorities also benefited from the position of Iranian authorities, who did not encourage the factions to engage in the war but instead urged them to remain calm. Some observers believed that Iran did not want to risk its relations with Iraq after losing Syria.

-Another significant factor was the factions’ realization that the war exceeded their capabilities, especially in light of what Hezbollah faced in Lebanon and the Israeli penetrations inside Iran itself, which demonstrated that Israel possessed precise intelligence on hostile organizations and was able to reach its targets thanks to its technological superiority and these infiltrations.

-The sources indicated that despite all the pressure and efforts, “rogue groups” tried to prepare three attacks, but the authorities succeeded in thwarting them before they were carried out.

The sources estimated that Iran suffered a deep wound because Israel moved the battle onto Iranian soil and encouraged the US to target its nuclear facilities. They did not rule out another round of fighting “if Iran does not make the necessary concessions on the nuclear issue.”