Mamlouk-Fidan Talks: Mutual Demands, Russian Solutions

The security talks led by the Director of the Syrian National Security Office, Major General Ali Mamlouk, and the Director of Turkish Intelligence, Hakan Fidan, in Moscow highlighted a continuous gap between the two parties on the one hand, and the increasing Russian desire to find a solution to it.

Damascus demands a “timetable” for withdrawal, especially since Türkiye controls Syrian areas that are twice the size of Lebanon. Ankara, for its part, adheres to “safe areas” in northern Syria, while Russia seeks to bridge the gap based on the interests of the two sides, namely “coordination against the Kurds and separatist movements.”

Meanwhile, President Bashar al-Assad signed a decree appointing Deputy Foreign Minister Bashar al-Jaafari ambassador to Moscow. Russian authorities decided to expedite diplomatic approval, which opens the door to strengthening Russian mediation. It also allows Deputy Minister Ayman Susan to assume his position, or Imad Mustafa to return to the post of deputy minister to Faisal Al-Miqdad.

Security tours and diplomatic contacts

Following several secret security meetings at different levels in the countryside of Latakia, Tehran and Moscow, and the continuation of the work of the Syrian Consulate in Istanbul, Moscow sponsored in early 2020 a public meeting between Mamlouk and Fidan, which was announced by the two countries’ official news agencies.

The two sides reiterated their positions, as Mamlouk demanded that Ankara abide by the 2018 Sochi agreements between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian Vladimir Putin, in addition to opening the Aleppo-Latakia road, and completing withdrawals from Syrian territory. On the other hand, Fidan demanded cooperation against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and the search for a political settlement.

Practically speaking, the meeting did not result in a major breakthrough. As if Assad and Erdogan just wanted to give the impression that they were not against Putin’s mediation. Since then, both the Syrian and Turkish sides have followed their own tracks and priorities.

The Russian war in Ukraine stirred the Syrian stalemate. Erdogan, better positioned as he was needed by Moscow and Washington, wanted to launch a new military operation in northern Syria. Indeed, he prepared his army and loyal factions, and set the date for the incursion at the end of July. The Turkish president sought to coordinate with the Iranian spiritual guide, Ali Khamenei, and the Russian president during the Tehran summit on July 19.

According to sources who attended the summit, the Russian and Iranian sides clearly told Erdogan that they were against the military operation, and that they preferred the Turkish leader to talk with Assad and to focus on “unifying ranks against the US-backed separatist movements in northeastern Syria.”

Accordingly, Putin and Khamenei considered that they “succeeded in persuading Erdogan to deal with Assad” and that the tripartite summit was “a sign of Assad’s victory.”

Mamlouk-Fidan... Two friends?

Putin succeeded in persuading Assad and Erdogan to dispatch Mamlouk and Fidan, who know each other well, to Moscow, which hosted a round of secret talks between them in July, partly led by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

According to Russian, Western and Arab sources, Mamlouk and Fidan presented a long list of extreme demands.

What about the demands?

The Syrian demands included: respecting Syrian sovereignty, setting a timetable for the Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory, halting support for separatist groups, and returning Idlib, which has been under the control of Turkish-backed factions since 2015. Moreover, the Syrian side called for restoring control of the Bab al-Hawa crossing between Türkiye and Idlib, and opening the M4 road that extends from the borders of the Mediterranean in the west, to Iraq in the east, and which is controlled by Syrian, Turkish and Kurdish forces.
Syria also demanded help in countering western sanctions (as Türkiye does with sanctions against Russia), in addition to its return to the Arab League, assistance in reconstruction efforts and the recovery of natural resources, including oil, gas and agriculture east of the Euphrates.

As for Türkiye, which considers that Damascus is incapable of fighting the Kurds alone, its demands include: serious action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its Syrian wing - the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), cooperation between the security services in the two countries, and negotiations with the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition to reach a political settlement. It also called for the return of Syrian refugees, the establishment of safe zones in Aleppo and other areas in northern Syria at a depth of 30 km, and assistance and facilitation of the work of the Syrian Constitutional Committee.

Moscow continues to oppose a meeting of the Syrian Constitutional Committee in Geneva. Despite the visit of the UN envoy Geir Pedersen to Russia, information indicate that the committee would not convene in the coming months. One of the options is to hold the talks in Astana, noting that Erdogan had suggested in Tehran that it be organized in a city that is home to a UN headquarters.

Meanwhile, the Western representatives will organize a coordination meeting onTuesday in Geneva, at the request of US Envoy Ethan Goldrich, to “coordinate Arab and Western positions opposing Arab normalization with Damascus, and to confirm that Geneva is a natural place for the work of the Constitutional Committee.”

An Iranian incursion...and Russian solutions

Iran tried to enter the security mediation line between Syria and Türkiye – a move that did not please some parties in Damascus and Moscow. But Russia maintained its mediation, reiterating this stance during Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s talks with his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Miqdad. The latter expressed doubts about Fidan’s ability to influence Erdogan.

First, Russia believes that it succeeded in stopping Türkiye’s plans to launch a military operation, and in changing the Turkish and Syrian discourse. Moscow is confident that the Turkish withdrawal “will happen, but it is not an urgent matter”, and that the current meeting point is “working against the Kurds and separatist movements.”

An official said: “If the situation remains the same for two or three years, it will be difficult for Syria to regain its unity.”

The Russian mediator is currently working on an “action plan” based on the two sides’ demands and common points. The priorities include providing security guarantees to Ankara and operational arrangements for Damascus in Idlib and the Aleppo-Latakia road.

One of the solutions is for the Syrian and Turkish sides to work on copying a new draft of the 1998 Adana Agreement, which established security cooperation between them against the PKK.

Another mediation with Washington

Parallel to Moscow’s mediation between Ankara and Damascus, another mediation is led by Lebanese Intelligence chief Abbas Ibrahim and others between Damascus and Washington regarding the fate of US Journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria ten years ago.

Ibrahim had previously intervened during President Donald Trump’s administration, and also under Joe Biden. However, Damascus’ response did not change: There will be no negotiation over Tice before the US withdrawal, the dismantling of the Al-Tanf base, and the lifting of sanctions. The only new development is Syria’s decision to publicly announce its demands, stating that it had not detained Tice, without specifying whether the journalist was alive or not.

In the summer of 2019, Damascus asked the visiting US envoys for the American forces’ withdrawal, the dismantling of the Al-Tanf base, and the halting of support to the opposition, in addition to the lifting of sanctions, because it did not want to help Trump succeed in the elections. But Syrian authorities made sure to inform Moscow and Tehran of those negotiations.

Today, Damascus is keen to publicly inform Moscow and Tehran of its demands from America, because the Syrian priority is to please the two capitals and to search for common lines with Ankara, especially after the Western-American confrontation in Ukraine.

There are indications that the normalization process between Damascus and Ankara has started, and that Moscow is working on framing its phases, speed and content, whether through a quick transition to the political framework, or by staying within the security framework and searching for common realistic goals.

Despite the limited and inadequate flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, the bulk of it is being hijacked by gangs and looters amid a breakdown in law and order, residents and officials say, with little reaching the most desperate.

Efforts by Hamas authorities to restore order have faltered under relentless Israeli bombardment. Even local tribal coalitions trying to protect aid convoys have been targeted.

On Monday, five men were killed and 13 others wounded when Israeli forces bombed a group tasked with securing trucks entering from the Zikim crossing in northwestern Gaza. The strike came just as the trucks rolled in, leaving them vulnerable to immediate looting by armed groups and opportunistic thieves.

Amid widespread hunger, Gazans are left to fend for themselves.

“People are fighting for scraps,” said Jamil Hasna, a resident of Sheikh Radwan district. He walked 3 kilometers over four days to the outskirts of al-Sudaniya hoping to collect a 25-kilogram sack of flour, managing to get one just once, only to be beaten by a group of thugs who stole it.

“I waited for hours and ended up with bruises instead of bread,” he told Asharq al-Awsat.

Gaza has been descending into what aid workers call a “free-for-all.” Convoys entering from Egypt rarely reach their intended destinations, including communities such as Gaza’s Egyptian expats or its dwindling Christian population.

Most aid, whether delivered by truck or air-dropped, has been looted, according to residents and witnesses. Only a few manage to snatch small rations, often after clashing with looters armed with knives and guns.

Much of the stolen food appears almost instantly on Gaza’s black markets, sold at exorbitant prices far beyond what ordinary families can afford. With banks shuttered and liquidity scarce, many are forced to pay nearly 50% commission just to convert digital currency into cash.

“You need $100 to feed your family, but you walk away with $52,” said Ahmed al-Maghrabi, a Palestinian Authority employee from Gaza’s Sabra district.

“Thieves are running our lives, our food, our money, everything. This isn’t survival. This is slow death. Emigration is our only escape.”

According to al-Maghrabi, criminal gangs with apparent links to merchants are coordinating to intercept aid as it enters Gaza. “They get there before anyone else, as if they know where and when the shipments will land,” he said.

Air-dropped aid has provided no solution. In several cases, it has landed in Israeli-controlled zones or been seized in contested areas such as southern Khan Younis and eastern Gaza City. Even when aid falls near civilians, most of it is stolen and resold.

In some markets, a kilogram of sugar now sells for $130, down from $170 days earlier, but still unaffordable. Canned meat and ready-to-eat meals range between $44 and $60. Baby formula costs up to $69 per can, while a single diaper fetches $4.

On Monday, a Jordanian military plane dropped supplies over Gaza. The World Food Program said 55 trucks entered that day, but were seized by crowds before they reached their warehouses.

Beyond food, even baby items such as formula and diapers, critically needed by families and hospitals, are being looted and monetized.

For many in Gaza, the aid operation feels more like a performance than a lifeline.

“This is a charade,” said Nisreen al-Assi, a displaced woman from Beit Lahiya now sheltering in western Gaza. “Israel wants to appear as if it's easing the famine, but it’s managing the crisis, not solving it. It is letting gangs run wild while targeting those who try to guard the aid.”

Al-Assi said Israeli forces not only attack security escorts but also refuse to protect the convoys, instead forcing drivers to stop in open streets where the trucks are easily looted.

The government media office in Gaza said most aid trucks are systematically ransacked, and daily air-drops amount to less than half a single truckload. Some have landed in areas marked “red zones”, high-risk zones for military activity.

“This is a deliberate strategy,” the office said in a statement. “Israel is consciously engineering chaos and famine. It is preventing aid from reaching its storage points or intended recipients. What’s happening in Gaza is not random, it’s a calculated crime against a besieged civilian population.”

Mamlouk-Fidan Talks: Mutual Demands, Russian Solutions