Britain and the US… And the Round of Violence in Iraq

Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)
Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)
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Britain and the US… And the Round of Violence in Iraq

Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)
Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)

In contrast to its establishment by the British in the early twentieth century, the second effort to establish an Iraqi state, made this century by the US, was chaotic and not based on a vision for how to build it.

There is an immense difference in scale between the two foundations. Iraq had not been a state but three provinces (Baghdad, Mosul, and Basra) of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War, while it was a single country that had been around for 80 years and had the fifth or sixth largest army in the world when Saddam was toppled by the US in 2003.

While Mrs. Gertrude Bell, the Oriental Secretary to the British High Commissioner, was heavily involved in the British effort to establish the new state of Iraq, and she brought in an Arab king from the Hejaz to rule the country, the Americans appointed Paul Bremer as the first top civilian administrator in Iraq, and he went on to destroy the Iraq capacities of state in vain.

The English version of the Iraqi state had a single national identity, as demonstrated by the fact that senior Shiite clerics engaged with the founding of the country from the lens of their national (Arab) identity, not their (Muslim) religious or (Shiite) confessional identity.

When a delegation visited Sharif Hussein bin Ali, they sought to persuade him to allow one of his sons to become king of Iraq.

Everything had changed 80 years later. While in its middle age, what were dubbed grievances of the oppressed began to emerge within the modern Iraqi state. These were especially prevalent during Saddam Hussein’s long rule (1968 - 2003), when it became apparent that some Iraqis were being discriminated against on an ethnic (the persecution of the Kurds, including the Halabja massacre) and confessional (the persecution of the Shiites, which would eventually go as far as prohibiting their Ashura rituals) basis.

All of this history was very much there as the US tanks rolled in with the support and encouragement of Iraq’s new rulers, who had been opposed to Saddam.

Bremer touches on these issues and others in his book “My Year in Iraq”, and many of those he named were part of the Iraqi Governing Council and are so-called founding fathers of the current regime.

Moqtada al-Sadr was still a young man at the tender age of 29 at the time. He inherited the religious leadership position of his father, Muhammad Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (one of the most influential Shiite clerics in the country) after the latter was assassinated by Saddam in 1999.

The young Sadr, who was seen as a local insider in the sense that he did not arrive in the country on the backs of American tanks like the other opposition forces, quickly decided to launch a resistance movement targeting the Americans with the Sunni resistance.

While these battles eventually led to a sectarian war after the bombing of the Samarra shrine (2006 - 2008), Sadr went on to become among the most influential leaders in Iraq today.

Because the US made the mistake of establishing a political regime built on spoil-sharing among ethnic and confessional groups in Iraq, the national identity of the country was erased, with sub-identities (ethnic, religious, regional, sectarian) replacing it.

The prominence of these identities made it impossible to form a government that could overcome the dominance of spoil-sharing, which shapes all aspects of state building and strengthens religious, partisan, militia, and tribal leaders at the expense of political officials.

In light of this precarious state of affairs, it seems that any shake-up would have a domino effect and lead to successive crises. This happened several times during the October revolution in 2019, leaving hundreds dead and tens of thousands injured, and more recently during the wave of protests launched by the Sadrists.

While a so-called third party was held responsible for what happened during the October protests, the violence that followed Sadr’s announcement that he would retire from political life could not be blamed on a third party.

It was patently obvious that only two sides were involved. On the one hand, is the Sadrist Movement led by Moqtada al-Sadr, and on the other is Coordination Framework, an alliance led by the country’s other powerful Shiite leaders: Nouri al-Maliki, Hadi al-Ameri, Qais Khazali, Ammar al-Hakim, Haider al-Abadi and Falih al-Fayyad.

In this instance, Sadr moved quickly and decisively after he felt and acknowledged that he had been as responsible for the bloodshed as the others and ordered his followers to withdraw. His followers did indeed withdraw within the deadline of one hour that he had set.

Does that mean the state will function normally again? All indications point to what happened being a round of violence that could be a prelude to another. The reason now and always will be the faulty foundation of Iraq, one that sharply differs from that laid by Mrs. Bell.



Hurdles Remain as Israel and Hamas Once Again Inch toward a Ceasefire Deal

 A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)
A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)
TT

Hurdles Remain as Israel and Hamas Once Again Inch toward a Ceasefire Deal

 A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)
A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Israel and Hamas once again appear to be inching toward a ceasefire that could wind down the 15-month war in Gaza and bring home dozens of Israelis held hostage there.

Both Israel and Hamas are under pressure from outgoing US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump to reach a deal before the Jan. 20 inauguration. But the sides have come close before, only to have talks collapse over various disagreements.

The latest round of negotiations has bogged down over the names of hostages to be released in a first phase, according to Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing ongoing negotiations.

Israel wants assurances that the hostages are alive, while Hamas says that after months of heavy fighting, it isn't sure who is alive or dead.

Other hurdles remain.

The first phase, expected to last for six to eight weeks, would also include a halt in fighting, a release of Palestinian prisoners and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, according to the officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war, and talks on reconstruction and who will govern Gaza going forward.

“If we don’t get it across the finish line in the next two weeks, I’m confident that it will get to completion at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Seoul on Monday.

Here’s a closer look at the key issues holding up a deal:

The release of hostages from Gaza

During its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, Hamas and other groups killed some 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages into Gaza. A truce in November 2023 freed more than 100 hostages, while others have been rescued or their remains have been recovered over the past year.

Israel says about 100 hostages remain in Gaza — at least a third of whom it believes were killed during the Oct. 7 attack or died in captivity.

The first batch of hostages to be released is expected to be made up mostly of women, older people and people with medical conditions, according to the Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials.

On Monday, Hamas released a list of 34 names of hostages it said were slated for release. An Egyptian official confirmed the list had been the focus of recent discussions.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the names were from a list Israel had submitted months ago. “As of now, Israel has not received any confirmation or comment by Hamas regarding the status of the hostages appearing on the list,” it said.

An Israeli official said the current impasse was due to Hamas' refusal to provide information on the conditions of the hostages, while another official said the departure of the head of the Mossad intelligence agency for negotiations in Qatar was on hold.

A Hamas official, meanwhile, said that “no one knows” the conditions of all of the hostages. Hamas officials have said that due to the war, they cannot provide a full accounting until there is a truce.

Since the war began, over 45,800 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to local health authorities, who say women and children make up more than half of those killed. They do not say how many of the dead were fighters.

Pausing the war or ending it?

Families of hostages reacted angrily to reports of the phased approach, saying the government should instead be pursuing a deal that releases all the captives at once. They say time is running out to bring people home safely.

“This morning, I and everyone in Israel woke up and discovered that the state of Israel has put together a Schindler's List — 34 people who will be able to hug their families again, and 66 others whose fate will be sealed,” said Yotam Cohen, whose brother Nimrod, an Israeli soldier held hostage, did not appear on the published list.

Netanyahu has said he supports a partial deal that pauses the war, but he has rejected Hamas' demands for a full Israeli withdrawal that would end the war. Netanyahu has vowed to continue fighting until he achieves “total victory” — including the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities.

Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Hamas. But the group continues to stage attacks in Gaza and to fire rockets into Israel. That could portend an open-ended war that could drag on for months or years.

The Hostages Forum, a grassroots group representing many hostage families, said it was time for a comprehensive deal.

“We know more than half are still alive and need immediate rehabilitation, while those who were murdered must be returned for proper burial,” it said. “We have no more time to waste. A hostage ceasefire agreement must be sealed now!”

The release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel

As part of the deal, Israel is expected to free hundreds of imprisoned Palestinians, including dozens who were convicted in bloody attacks.

Israel has a history of large-scale prisoner releases, and hundreds were freed in the November 2023 deal. But the sides have disagreed over the exact number and names of the prisoners to be freed. Hamas wants high-profile prisoners included. Israeli officials have ruled out the release of Marwan Barghouti, who tops Hamas' wish list.

Netanyahu's governing coalition includes hardliners who oppose such releases, with some even pledging to quit the government if too many concessions are made. They point to a 2011 prisoner release that included the former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks who was killed by Israel in October.

The war has displaced an estimated 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, according to UN estimates, with the hard-hit northern sector of the territory largely emptied of its prewar population.

During the first phase of the developing deal, Israel is expected to withdraw troops from Palestinian population centers and allow some of the displaced to return home. But the extent of the pullback and the number of people allowed to return must still be worked out, the officials say.