Who Marginalized Role of Premiership in Lebanon after Rafik Hariri’s Assassination?

The killing of Hariri triggered huge anti-government protests in Beirut. (Getty Images)
The killing of Hariri triggered huge anti-government protests in Beirut. (Getty Images)
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Who Marginalized Role of Premiership in Lebanon after Rafik Hariri’s Assassination?

The killing of Hariri triggered huge anti-government protests in Beirut. (Getty Images)
The killing of Hariri triggered huge anti-government protests in Beirut. (Getty Images)

The 1989 Taif Accord that ended the Lebanese civil war (1975-90) transformed the position of prime minister into an effective partner in power.

The position was consolidated with the arrival of Rafik Hariri to the post in late 1992. The businessman managed to invest his extensive Arab and international relations in rebuilding a country that was destroyed by 15 years of war.

His shock assassination on February 14, 2005 re-created the imbalance in constitutional institutions, effectively marginalizing the role of the premiership and diminishing its role in the national equation.

No one argues that Hariri was an extraordinary phenomenon in Lebanon’s history. His legacy has weighed heavily on his successors, who have weakened the top Sunni post in the country.

Former MP Mustafa Alloush said Hariri was a unique figure.

“He had an Arab and international vision and his role was part of that Arab and international role, as demonstrated in his strong ties to the Arab Gulf, starting with Saudi Arabia, and global decision-makers, as well as Egypt, Türkiye, Pakistan, Morocco and others,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He recalled Hariri’s famed statement, “no one is greater than their country,” adding that the slain PM was actually “bigger than Lebanon.”

“He did not covet power, but his vision was based on diversity, democracy and culture. This project protects Lebanon from the creed of leftist groups that don’t believe in the idea of the state,” he explained.

“It also protects Lebanon from Sunni fundamentalism and Shiite extremism represented in Iran’s Vilayet al-Faqih. He strived to achieve this project, which ultimately cost him his life,” lamented Alloush

No one denies that Lebanon began to rapidly decline soon after Hariri’s assassination. It floundered in crises for years before now reaching total collapse.

Alloush remarked that Hariri’s successors “lacked experience and charisma. Successive Sunni leaders agreed to compromises over power and its rewards, which led us to catastrophe.”

Former MP Fares Soaid said the marginalization of the premiership can also be attributed to regional factors, namely Iran’s hegemony over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

This situation marginalized the role of Sunnis throughout the region and brought the rise of minorities that have largely succeeded in winning over Christians and Druze, he explained to Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Hariri’s assassination removed a large Sunni barrier that was standing in the way of the Iranian drive in the region,” he noted.

Saddam Hussein’s execution in 2003 and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s death in 2004 all played in Iran’s favor, he went on to say.

Soaid highlighted one successful premiership in Lebanon after Hariri’s murder.

He recalled how Fouad Siniora succeeded in withstanding all sorts of pressure from Hezbollah and its allies during his term in office from 2005 to 2009.

At the time, the anti-Syria March 14 camp was still active and Siniora could rely on its support in taking decisive decisions in government.

Soaid highlighted Hezbollah’s invasion of Beirut on May 7, 2008 and the Doha agreement that resolved the ensuing crisis, granting the party a blocking third power in government. This was the beginning of the marginalization of state institutions.

Hariri employed his vast network of international relations to serve Lebanon’s interests. His assassination upended political life and changed the equation.

Lebanese political analyst Khaldoun al-Sharif told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The assassination undermined the presidency and other political positions.”

Political rivals started to abuse their positions, rather than carrying out their duties in serving the people, they began to purse their own interests at the expense of the population and their future, he explained.

The system of rule that ensued after Hariri’s murder has undermined the presidency, premiership and the parliament speakership, he added.

Sharif said the situation came to a head during the 2015 and 2019 protests against the ruling class.

Soaid agreed with the assessment.

The marginalization not only applies to the premiership, but to the presidency and speakership, he remarked. Any decision taken by the holders of these positions are now ineffective without Hezbollah’s seal of approval, he added.

He predicted that this situation will persist until Iran’s regional role in contained and until Lebanese officials take an adamant stand in defending their country’s identity, Arabism, existence and state.

There are several factors that transformed Lebanon from a progressive and pioneering state under Hariri to a failed state after his assassination.

Sharif said one of the factors is that officials no longer seek the interests of the people, but are rather embroiled in corruption or protecting the corrupt.

Confronting the possession of arms outside state authority (Hezbollah’s arsenal) is no longer the sole goal of political battles, he stated.

Lebanon has to now tackle its devastating economic crisis that erupted in 2019.

Sharif noted how Sri Lanka recently succeeded in reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund within ten days while Lebanon has yet to approve a single reform or a state budget since 2019.

“How are the people expected to trust in their such rulers?” he wondered.

“The Lebanese sense that all presidencies in their country are ineffective. They are no longer concerned with the disputes between the rival parties after realizing that these forces only disagree with each other over their own personal gains,” he added.



Fear Stalks Tehran as Israel Bombards, Shelters Fill Up and Communicating Grows Harder

Shops remain shuttered Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
Shops remain shuttered Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
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Fear Stalks Tehran as Israel Bombards, Shelters Fill Up and Communicating Grows Harder

Shops remain shuttered Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
Shops remain shuttered Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)

The streets of Tehran are empty, businesses closed, communications patchy at best. With no bona fide bomb shelters open to the public, panicked masses spend restless nights on the floors of metro stations as strikes boom overhead.

This is Iran’s capital city, just under a week into a fierce Israeli blitz to destroy the country's nuclear program and its military capabilities. After knocking out much of Iran's air defense system, Israel says its warplanes have free rein over the city's skies. US President Donald Trump on Monday told Tehran's roughly 10 million residents to evacuate “immediately.”

Thousands have fled, spending hours in gridlock as they head toward the suburbs, the Caspian Sea, or even Armenia or Türkiye. But others — those elderly and infirm — are stuck in high-rise apartment buildings. Their relatives fret: what to do?

Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 585 people and wounded over 1,300, a human rights group says. State media, also a target of bombardment, have stopped reporting on the attacks, leaving Iranians in the dark. There are few visible signs of state authority: Police appear largely undercover, air raid sirens are unreliable, and there’s scant information on what to do in case of attack.

Shirin, 49, who lives in the southern part of Tehran, said every call or text to friends and family in recent days has felt like it could be the last.

“We don’t know if tomorrow we will be alive,” she said.

Many Iranians feel conflicted. Some support Israel's targeting of Iranian political and military officials they see as repressive. Others staunchly defend the country and retaliatory strikes on Israel. Then, there are those who oppose Iran’s rulers, but still don't want to see their country bombed.

To stay, or to go? The Associated Press interviewed five people in Iran and one Iranian American in the US over the phone. All spoke either on the condition of anonymity or only allowed their first names to be used, for fear of retribution from the state against them or their families.

Most of the calls ended abruptly and within minutes, cutting off conversations as people grew nervous or because the connection dropped. Iran’s government has acknowledged disrupting internet access. It says it's to protect the country, though that has blocked average Iranians from getting information from the outside world.

Iranians in the diaspora wait anxiously for news from relatives. One, an Iranian American human rights researcher in the US, said he last heard from relatives when some were trying to flee Tehran earlier in the week. He believes that lack of gas and traffic prevented them from leaving.

The most heartbreaking interaction, he said, was when his older cousins with whom he grew up in Iran told him “We don’t know where to go. If we die, we die.”

“Their sense was just despair,” he said.

Some families have made the decision to split up.

A 23-year-old Afghan refugee who has lived in Iran for four years said he stayed behind in Tehran but sent his wife and newborn son out of the city after a strike Monday hit a nearby pharmacy.

“It was a very bad shock for them,” he said.

Some, like Shirin, said fleeing was not an option. The apartment buildings in Tehran are towering and dense. Her father has Alzheimer’s and needs an ambulance to move. Her mother's severe arthritis would make even a short trip extremely painful.

Still, hoping escape might be possible, she spent the last several days trying to gather their medications. Her brother waited at a gas station until 3 a.m., only to be turned away when the fuel ran out. As of Monday, gas was being rationed to under 20 liters (5 gallons) per driver at stations across Iran after an Israeli strike set fire to the world's largest gas field.

Some people, like Arshia, said they are just tired.

“I don’t want to go in traffic for 40 hours, 30 hours, 20 hours, just to get to somewhere that might get bombed eventually,” he said.

The 22-year-old has been staying in the house with his parents since the initial Israeli strike. He said his once-lively neighborhood of Saadat Abad in northwestern Tehran is now a ghost town. Schools are closed. Very few people even step outside to walk their dogs. Most local stores have run out of drinking water and cooking oil. Others closed.

Still, Arshia said the prospect of finding a new place is too daunting.

“We don’t have the resources to leave at the moment,” he said.

Residents are on their own

No air raid sirens went off as Israeli strikes began pounding Tehran before dawn Friday. For many, it was an early sign civilians would have to go it alone.

During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Tehran was a low-slung city, many homes had basements to shelter in, and there were air raid drills and sirens. Now the capital is packed with close-built high-rise apartments without shelters.

“It's a kind of failing of the past that they didn’t build shelters,” said a 29-year-old Tehran resident who left the city Monday. “Even though we’ve been under the shadow of a war, as long as I can remember.”

Her friend's boyfriend was killed while going to the store.

“You don’t really expect your boyfriend or your anyone, really to leave the house and never return when they just went out for a routine normal shopping trip,” she said.

Those who choose to relocate do so without help from the government. The state has said it is opening mosques, schools and metro stations for use as shelters. Some are closed, others overcrowded.

Hundreds crammed into one Tehran metro station Friday night. Small family groups lay on the floor. One student, a refugee from another country, said she spent 12 hours in the station with her relatives.

“Everyone there was panicking because of the situation,” she said. “Everyone doesn’t know what will happen next, if there is war in the future and what they should do. People think nowhere is safe for them.”

Soon after leaving the station, she saw that Israel had warned a swath of Tehran to evacuate.

“For immigrant communities, this is so hard to live in this kind of situation,” she said, explaining she feels like she has nowhere to escape to, especially not her home country, which she asked not be identified.

Fear of Iran mingles with fear of Israel

For Shirin, the hostilities are bittersweet. Despite being against the theocracy and its treatment of women, the idea that Israel may determine the future does not sit well with her.

“As much as we want the end of this regime, we didn’t want it to come at the hands of a foreign government,” she said. “We would have preferred that if there were to be a change, it would be the result of a people’s movement in Iran.”

Meanwhile, the 29-year-old who left Tehran had an even more basic message for those outside Iran:

“I just want people to remember that whatever is happening here, it’s not routine business for us. People’s lives here — people’s livelihoods — feel as important to them as they feel to anyone in any other place. How would you feel if your city or your country was under bombardment by another country, and people were dying left and right?”

“We are kind of like, this can’t be happening. This can’t be my life.”