Asian Markets Rally, Dollar Dips as Traders Price in Policy Tightening

Residents walk near a bazaar closed due to the rain in Beijing, Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022. (AP)
Residents walk near a bazaar closed due to the rain in Beijing, Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022. (AP)
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Asian Markets Rally, Dollar Dips as Traders Price in Policy Tightening

Residents walk near a bazaar closed due to the rain in Beijing, Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022. (AP)
Residents walk near a bazaar closed due to the rain in Beijing, Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022. (AP)

Asian markets rallied Friday following a healthy performance on Wall Street, with investors largely pricing in more interest rate hikes aimed at taming runaway inflation.

The more confident mood was reflected in a dip in the dollar, which has surged in recent weeks to multi-decade highs against its major peers owing to the Federal Reserve's hawkish tilt to tighter monetary policy, AFP said.

The greenback's softness came even after Fed chief Jerome Powell reasserted the bank's determination to keep hiking rates to fight prices, even at the cost of economic growth.

His warning that "we need to act now forthrightly, strongly" followed comments from his deputy Lael Brainard, who said policymakers would lift borrowing costs for as long as it takes to bring inflation down from 40-year highs.

Still, Wall Street ended in positive territory, putting markets on course for a weekly gain and easing some pressure after hefty losses in August caused by worries that rising rates will spark a recession.

"The markets have finally digested the fact that rates are almost certain to go up by 75 basis points when the Fed moves next (on September 21)," JoAnne Feeney, at Advisors Capital Management, told Bloomberg TV.

"What we are seeing though is some recognition that perhaps the sell-off that we saw in the second half of August was a bit overdone," she said.

New York's rise filtered through to Asia, where Hong Kong added more than two percent heading into a long weekend, while Tokyo, Sydney, Shanghai, Singapore, Wellington, Manila and Bangkok were all up.

OANDA's Edward Moya said traders cheered as "Powell stuck to his hawkish script and affirmed the commitment to tighten policy until inflation is back towards their target.

"Wall Street is expecting to see some pricing pressure relief with next week's inflation report, but that shouldn't derail the current 75 basis-point pace of tightening."

There was also some cheer from news that inflation in China had eased slightly in August, giving the government more room to introduce more economy-supporting measures, though the recovery remains hostage to leaders' strict zero-Covid strategy of growth-sapping lockdowns.

On currency markets, the euro was holding well above parity with the dollar after the European Central Bank announced its own 75 basis-point rise as it warned inflation was "far too high" and likely to stay above target for "an extended period".

ECB chief Christine Lagarde suggested policy would continue to be tightened for some time.

The yen was also slightly stronger, having been in danger of hitting a 32-year low versus the greenback, with senior Japanese officials hinting at possible action to curb its losses if the unit fell further.

However, there is an expectation that it will see more losses as the Bank of Japan sticks rigidly to its ultra-loose policies despite the Fed's increasingly hawkish moves.

Oil prices extended Thursday's gains though they remain pressured by ongoing worries about the impact on demand from possible recessions caused by the rate hikes and inflation.

Weakness in China's economy and lockdowns in major cities were also cause for concern among commodities traders.

Reports that President Joe Biden was considering releasing more crude from the US strategic reserves were also weighing on the market.

Washington is concerned that prices could spike in December when European Union sanctions on Russian supplies kick in.

- Key figures at around 0320 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.6 percent at 28,219.70 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 2.2 percent at 19,269.43

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.7 percent at 3,258.94

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0070 from $1.0001 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.1568 from $1.1500

Euro/pound: UP at 87.07 pence from 86.93 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 143.70 yen from 144.07 yen

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.4 percent at $83.91 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.7 percent at $89.73 per barrel

New York - Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 31,774.52 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 7,262.06 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.