UN Warns Against Further Deterioration of Situation in Sudan

UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Sudan, Volker Perthes. (AFP)
UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Sudan, Volker Perthes. (AFP)
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UN Warns Against Further Deterioration of Situation in Sudan

UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Sudan, Volker Perthes. (AFP)
UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Sudan, Volker Perthes. (AFP)

UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Sudan, Volker Perthes warned that the overall situation in the country will continue to worsen unless a political situation is found to restore a credible, fully functioning civilian-led government.

In a briefing to the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, Perthes stressed there is a chance of reaching a political agreement that would inaugurate a new transitional period towards democratic governance.

He underscored Sudan’s need for a civilian-led government that can re-establish the authority of the state across the country and create the conditions for a resumption of international cooperation, including debt relief.

Perthes pointed out that on October 25 will mark a year since the military coup, noting that the past 10 months have been noted for recurrent protests against the coup, during which 117 people have been killed, and thousands injured in the context of these protests.

At the same time, he confirmed that efforts to realize the goals of the 2018 revolution have continued, particularly among youth, women, trade unions and professional associations.

With regard to the political process, Perthes said some important decisions have been taken by the military, and some promising developments have happened among civilians.

The Sudanese army’s announcement that it will withdraw from politics generated momentum among civilian forces, Perthes noted, adding that several major initiatives aimed at reaching a common “civilian” vision have emerged in response.

He referred to the draft constitutional framework to the Trilateral Mechanism presented by the Bar Association, saying it gathered a broad spectrum of civilian forces around one vision, including the parties of the Forces for Freedom and Change-Central Committee and Juba Peace Agreement signatories.

Moreover, Perthes added that the trilateral mechanism, consisting of the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGADI), has engaged with all initiatives and is currently in the process of comparing the constitutional and political visions that have been issued.

“Almost all stakeholders, including notably the military, have expressed that they want the trilateral mechanism to play a role – either in bringing the different initiatives together, coming up with bridging proposals, or eventually mediating an agreement with the military,” he remarked.

He cited major differences about the institutional division of powers, particularly the role of the military, but he reassured the Council that the gaps have narrowed, and there is wide-ranging consensus now, among other things, on the need for a civilian head of state, an independent prime minister, and a cabinet of experts or technocrats, not party leaders.

“There is an opportunity to end the crisis, which military and civilian forces need to grasp,” Perthes said, noting that the trilateral mechanism stands ready to convene the parties around one text so as to bridge remaining differences.

Nearly a year after the military takeover of October 25, Sudan still lacks a fully functional and legitimate government.

The decision of the military to withdraw from politics and the recent initiatives by civilian forces offer a window of opportunity for both the military and political forces to reach an agreement on the way forward, Perthes told the Security Council.

He further warned that the longer political paralysis exists, the more difficult it will become to return to the “transition” which UNITAMS is mandated to assist.

He called on the international community and the Security Council to back the UNITAMS efforts and to offer coordinated support to Sudan at this critical time.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”