Turkish Lira Hits Record Low

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Türkiye September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Türkiye September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
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Turkish Lira Hits Record Low

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Türkiye September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Türkiye September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan

Türkiye’s currency fell to a record low against the dollar before a central bank meeting on interest rates Thursday.

The lira traded at a low of 18.38 against the dollar, past the previous record low of 18.36 in December, before recovering to about 18.36.

Türkiye has been following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox belief that high interest rates cause high inflation while much of the world is increasing their policy rates to combat inflation.

The Turkish central bank last month lowered its benchmark rate by 100 points to 13%. Official statistics released earlier in September showed annual inflation at 80.21%, The Associated Press reported.

Last year, the currency kept hitting record lows as the central bank lowered interest rates from 19%. When it finally hit 18.36 against the dollar, Erdogan announced extraordinary measures that he claimed would safeguard the lira.

The government encouraged people to swap their dollars for the lira and place them in a deposit account that would give the interest rate plus any lira depreciation against the dollar. Though the lira rebounded after that announcement to a high of 11.09, it steadily declined this year.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.